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Snow in DC could make a February return. Here’s what we could be expecting

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Snow in DC could make a February return. Here’s what we could be expecting


By the standard set over recent years, this winter has already not been so bad snowfall wise. Washington, D.C. has actually already picked up more snow this winter than we have totaled in five of the past seven winters. 

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Many came into this winter with much higher expectations, however, especially since many winter outlooks, including our own, highlighted the increased risks for a blizzard this winter. 

Snow in DC could make a February return. Here’s what we could be expecting

Is that risk still on the table? Or has this winter given us all it has to offer already, with spring getting closer by the day? 

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February is often a key month for seasonal snow forecasting. Why? Historically, it is the snowiest month of the year. Despite also being the shortest month of the year, the D.C. region averages 5.0″ of snow throughout the month. 

HISTORIC DC FEBRUARY SNOW TOTALS

Some of the region’s largest snow events have been hit during the month as well, such as the 2003 Presidents’ Day Blizzard and Snowmageddon back in 2010. The month has featured some monster snows, most common in El Niño years. In fact, February during an El Niño winter averages nearly two more inches compared to an average February. A moderate to strong El Niño, which we are currently in the midst of, averages nearly double the typical snowfall. 

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For fun though, I did also look at the El Niño cases that did not produce much snow (less than 10″) through the start of February, and these winters did average less than normal snow throughout the month of February. 

If we get a little deeper into the averages though, we do find that there are extreme years that drive those averages up a little bit, like nearly 29″ of snow in February 2003 and 32″ of snow in February 2010. Such extremes will have an impact on how an “average” looks. 

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READ MORE: DMV Winter 2023-2024 Outlook: Why we’re expecting more snow, chance for blizzards in DC this winter

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READ MORE: Winter weather in DC, Maryland & Virginia: How much snow have we seen?

HOW MUCH SNOW DID DC GET IN PAST YEARS?

So really diving into the numbers, of the twenty-six El Niño Februarys on the record, only six have failed to put down any measurable snow at all (trace or less) during the month of February. That is not to say that most El Niño Februarys end up with a big snow though. In fact, only a little over 30% of El Niño Februarys end up with a major snow exceeding at least 6″ in Washington, D.C. Not a lot, but compared to the average February, a one-in-three shot is an above normal shot as far as winters go around here. 

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The data shows that the majority of years, about 62% of them, end up with between 3-6″ of snow. Coincidentally, we need just about half a foot more of snow to verify an “above normal snowfall” season here. 

One thing that is undeniable is that, despite only a handful of it falling as measurable snow, it has been one of the stormiest winters on record here in the D.C. region. In just the last two months, we have completely erased the drought that plagued our region since the summer of 2023. 

We received just as much rain in December and January as we picked up in the entirety of the summer months, which is quite a rare feat. In fact, this was only the third time in recorded D.C. weather history that the city picked up over a foot of rain since December 1st. January alone featured nearly half a foot of rain, which is a feat we have not done in forty-five years. It has been an incredibly wet winter. 

While an active storm track is typically a great thing for snow, it is not a guarantee that a big blizzard awaits in February. In fact, of all the years when at least 10″ of rain fell in December and January, only one case featured a big blizzard in the month of February. 

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That was back in February 1979, when a storm around Presidents’ Day dropped widespread 20″ snowfall amounts around the DC region. Coincidentally, 1979 was also the last year that saw half a foot of rain in just January alone, so there is some connection there! 

HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD DC SEE?

Despite the stormy winter, all indications are that February is going to start off on a relatively quiet note. Unlike the middle of January where we had a strong connection to Arctic cold, at the moment we do not have any strong atmospheric mechanisms to pull stronger cold out of Canada and pull it eastward. While we will occasionally get brief pushes of winter cold, the first two weeks of the new month really do not offer too much in the way of excitement in terms of cold, snow, or even rain for that matter. 

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There was one storm that we are keeping an eye on into early next week, in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. Over this past weekend, there were several computer guidance indications that this storm could take a turn north up the East Coast and provide another decent shot at some snowfall for much of the region. 

More recent indications have been for this storm to pass well to the south of the Mid-Atlantic though. We will, of course, let you know if there are last-minute shifts on this track, but at the moment we favor this one to miss our region entirely, leaving us dry into the first full week of February. 

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While the pattern does start quiet at the beginning of the month, the vast majority of longer-range guidance suggests we will be in for at least one more round of sustained winter cold, and with it perhaps some better shots of accumulating snow as we approach the middle of the month. 

Various models have suggested that blocking patterns will redevelop over the Arctic regions after about the 10th of the month. Similar in nature to what we experienced in the middle of January, these blocks should help provide stronger and more prolonged surges of cold air into the eastern United States. At the same time, most show the active storm track returning to the pattern. 

At the same time, a climate feature known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO for short) will be swinging into what is known as the colder phases. You can read about the details of this signal in our winter weather outlook but know that when is in the aptly named colder phases that stronger cold air transport from Canada into the United States is much more common. 

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From a snow lovers’ perspective, it is an exciting pattern to see on paper. Computer models have had their struggles this winter though. So, until we actually see the guidance roll over from the longer range, into the shorter range, we will be a little skeptical. 

However, when we look at statistics and history, February is the most commonly colder than normal month during an El Niño year. I personally do not think that we will add any snow in the first ten days of the month at least, however, but I also do not believe we have seen our final snow of the season yet either. 

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We will look for the pattern to get more exciting towards the middle of the month. Stay tuned… 



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Draft DOJ report accuses DC police of manipulating crime data

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Draft DOJ report accuses DC police of manipulating crime data


The Justice Department has notified D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department that it completed its investigation into whether members of the department manipulated crime data to make crime rates appear lower, sources tell News4.

Multiple law enforcement sources familiar with the matter tell News4 that DOJ will release its findings as early as Monday.

A draft version of the report obtained by News4 describes members of the department as repeatedly downgrading and misclassifying crimes amid pressure to show progress.

MPD’s “official crime statistical reporting mechanism is likely unreliable and inaccurate due to misclassifications, errors, and/or purposefully downgraded classifications and reclassifications. A significant number of MPD reports are misclassified,” the draft report says.

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Investigators spoke with more than 50 witnesses and reviewed thousands of police reports, the draft report says. Witnesses described a change under Chief of Police Pamela Smith.

“While witnesses cite misclassifications and purposely downgraded classifications of criminal offenses at MPD for years prior, there appears to have been a significant increase in pressure to reduce crime during Pamela Smith’s tenure as Chief of Police that some describe as coercive,” the draft report says.

The draft report faults a “coercive culture” at in-person crime briefings held twice a week.

“The individuals presenting are denigrated and humiliated in front of their peers. They are held responsible for whatever recent crime has occurred in their respective districts. For instance, if a district had a homicide and numerous ADWs over a weekend, Chief Smith would hold the Commander of that district personally responsible,” the draft report says.

Smith announced this week that she will step down from her position at the end of the month. News4 asked her on Monday if she is leaving because of the allegations and she said they didn’t play into her decision.

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The DOJ review is one of two that were launched in relation to MPD crime stats, along with a separate investigation by the House Oversight Committee.

Both MPD and Mayor Muriel Bowser’s office have been given copies of the report. They did not immediately respond to inquiries by News4. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for D.C. also did not immediately respond.

News4 was first to report in July that the commander of MPD’s 3rd District was under investigation for allegedly manipulating crime statistics on his district. Cmdr. Michael Pulliam was placed on leave with pay and denied the allegations. The White House flagged the reporting.

“D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety. This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing!” President Donald Trump wrote on social media.

Trump has repeatedly questioned MPD crime statistics. He put News4’s reporting in the spotlight on Aug. 11, when he federalized the police department. He brought up the allegations against Pulliam at a news conference, and the White House linked to News4’s reporting in a press release titled “Yes, D.C. crime is out of control.”

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A D.C. police commander is under investigation for allegedly making changes to crime statistics in his district. News4’s Paul Wagner reports the department confirmed he was placed on leave in mid-May.

D.C. Police Union Chairman Gregg Pemberton told NBC News’ Garrett Haake this summerthat he doubts the drop in crime is as large as D.C. officials are touting.

“There’s a, potentially, a drop from where we were in 2023. I think that there’s a possibility that crime has come down. But the department is reporting that in 2024, crime went down 35% — violent crime – and another 25% through August of this year. That is preposterous to suggest that cumulatively we’ve seen 60-plus percent drops in violent crime from where we were in ’23, because we’re out on the street. We know the calls we’re responding to,” he said.

In an exclusive interview on Aug. 11, News4 asked Bowser about the investigation.

“I think that what Paul’s reporting revealed is that the chief of police had concerns about one commander, investigated all seven districts and verified that the concern was with one person. So, we are completing that investigation and we don’t believe it implicates many cases,” she said.

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D.C. Chief of Police Pamela Smith will step down at the end of the month after heading the department for less than three years. She spoke about her decision and whether tumult in D.C. including the federal law enforcement surge and community outrage over immigration enforcement played a role. News4’s Mark Segraves reports.



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Senators Seek to Change Bill That Allows Military to Operate Just Like Before the DC Plane Crash

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Senators Seek to Change Bill That Allows Military to Operate Just Like Before the DC Plane Crash


Senators from both parties pushed Thursday for changes to a massive defense bill after crash investigators and victims’ families warned the legislation would undo key safety reforms stemming from a collision between an airliner and Army helicopter over Washington, D.C., that killed 67 people.

The head of the National Transportation Safety Board investigating the crash, a group of the victims’ family members and senators on the Commerce Committee all said the bill the House advanced Wednesday would make America’s skies less safe. It would allow the military to operate essentially the same way as it did before the January crash, which was the deadliest in more than two decades, they said.

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell and Republican Committee Chairman Sen. Ted Cruz filed two amendments Thursday to strip out the worrisome helicopter safety provisions and replace them with a bill they introduced last summer to strengthen requirements, but it’s not clear if Republican leadership will allow the National Defense Authorization Act to be changed at this stage because that would delay its passage.

“We owe it to the families to put into law actual safety improvements, not give the Department of Defense bigger loopholes to exploit,” the senators said.

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Right now, the bill includes exceptions that would allow military helicopters to fly through the crowded airspace around the nation’s capital without using a key system called ADS-B to broadcast their locations just like they did before the January collision. The Federal Aviation Administration began requiring that in March. NTSB Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy called the bill a “significant safety setback” that is inviting a repeat of that disaster.

“It represents an unacceptable risk to the flying public, to commercial and military aircraft, crews and to the residents in the region,” Homendy said. “It’s also an unthinkable dismissal of our investigation and of 67 families … who lost loved ones in a tragedy that was entirely preventable. This is shameful.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is looking into the concerns but thinks they can be addressed by quickly passing the aviation safety bill that Cruz and Cantwell proposed last summer.

“I think that would resolve the concerns that people have about that provision, and hoping — we’ll see if we can find a pathway forward to get that bill done,” said Thune, a South Dakota Republican.

The military used national security waivers before the crash to skirt FAA safety requirements on the grounds that they worried about the security risks of disclosing their helicopters’ locations. Tim and Sheri Lilley, whose son Sam was the first officer on the American Airlines jet, said this bill only adds “a window dressing fix that would continue to allow for the setting aside of requirements with nothing more than a cursory risk assessment.”

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Homendy said it would be ridiculous to entrust the military with assessing the safety risks when they aren’t the experts, and neither the Army nor the FAA noticed 85 close calls around Ronald Reagan National Airport in the years before the crash. She said the military doesn’t know how to do that kind of risk assessment, adding that no one writing the bill bothered to consult the experts at the NTSB who do know.

The White House and military didn’t immediately respond Thursday to questions about these safety concerns. But earlier this week Trump made it clear that he wants to sign the National Defense Authorization Act because it advances a number of his priorities and provides a 3.8% pay raise for many military members.

The Senate is expected to take up the bill next week, and it appears unlikely that any final changes will be made. But Congress is leaving for a holiday break at the end of the week, and the defense bill is considered something that must pass by the end of the year.

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Bill would rename former Black Lives Matter Plaza for slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk – WTOP News

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Bill would rename former Black Lives Matter Plaza for slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk – WTOP News


A South Carolina Republican Congresswoman wants to rename a well-known stretch of 16th Street NW in D.C. after slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

A South Carolina Republican Congresswoman wants to rename a well-known stretch of 16th Street NW in D.C. after slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

Rep. Nancy Mace introduced legislation Wednesday to designate the area once known as “Black Lives Matter Plaza” as the “Charlie Kirk Freedom of Speech Plaza.” The proposal comes three months after Kirk was killed while speaking at a free-speech event at a Utah college.

Mace said the change would honor Kirk’s commitment to the First Amendment, calling him “a champion of free speech and a voice for millions of young Americans.” Her bill would require official signs to be placed in the plaza and updates made to federal maps and records.

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In a statement, Mace contrasted the unrest that followed George Floyd’s killing in 2020, when the plaza was created, with the response to Kirk’s death, saying the earlier period was marked by “chaos and destruction,” while Kirk’s killing brought “prayer, peace and unity.”

She argued that after Floyd’s death, “America watched criminals burn cities while police officers were ordered to stand down,” adding that officers were “vilified and abandoned by leaders who should have supported them.”

But D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton pushed back, saying Congress should not override local control.

“D.C. deserves to decide what its own streets are named since over 700,000 people live in the city,” Norton wrote on X. “D.C. is not a blank slate for Congress to fill in as it pleases.”

The stretch of 16th Street was originally dedicated as Black Lives Matter Plaza in 2020 following nationwide protests over Floyd’s death. Earlier this year, the city removed the mural.

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D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s office declined to comment on the bill, as did several members of the D.C. Council.

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