Politics
America needs an immigration debate — just not the one we're having
Immigration will figure prominently in the 2024 presidential campaign, continuing its run as one of the nation’s longest-running and most divisive issues.
Republicans plan to feature the troubles at the southern border as evidence for their argument that President Biden is failing. Former President Trump has amped up his already inflammatory anti-immigrant rhetoric, accusing migrants of “poisoning the blood” of Americans.
He focused on the subject again in his speech after winning Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, saying that if he were elected he would enforce “a deportation level that we haven’t seen in this country in a long time … since the Eisenhower administration.”
Democrats find themselves on the back foot. Public support for immigration, which rose during the Trump years, has sunk since Biden took office, no doubt partly because of chaotic scenes at the border. While immigration issues unify Republicans, they divide Democrats.
The Times’ most recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll of California voters provided clear evidence of the party’s divisions: Asked whether immigrants in the U.S. without authorization have created a burden for the country, Republican voters almost unanimously said they did.
Democrats were divided, with about 1 in 5 saying the migrants created a “major burden,” 2 in 5 saying they created a “minor burden” and about one-third saying they were not a burden.
Sidestepping the big issue
The result is a one-sided debate: Republicans have relentlessly been on the attack, and Democrats have taken a defensive crouch.
For the last couple of months, the White House, for example, has been trying to make concessions to Republicans in hopes of reaching a compromise on border security. So far, the talks haven’t achieved their goal, but the debate has further soured relations between the president and his party’s left wing.
As the debate has droned on, neither party has seriously tried to grapple with the biggest issue: Just how many immigrants does the U.S. need?
The immigration trade-off
For any country, immigration poses a trade-off. On the one hand, newcomers bring new ideas, new resources and welcome vitality. The poll of American immigrants that The Times did last year with KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, vividly illustrated how immigrants today are the keepers of the flame when it comes to optimism about the future — once a hallmark of American society.
But high levels of immigration can also bring social instability. Large numbers of unskilled immigrants can depress wages in certain parts of the economy, at least for a time. And new residents with new customs can generate a backlash, as the U.S. has vividly seen in recent years.
Striking the right balance is complicated, but it starts with grappling seriously with the question of what level of immigration would be optimal.
The answer: A lot more — at least if the U.S. wants to slow the graying of its population and stave off long-term population decline, demographers say.
Declining population growth
This decade probably will experience the smallest percentage population growth in U.S. history, said Brookings Institution demographic expert William Frey. That’s partially the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased death rates and caused some couples to postpone having children. But even with the pandemic receding, the U.S. is heading for very little growth in the years to come.
That’s a huge change from the past. Since 1900, the U.S. population mostly grew between 1% and 2% each year. The exceptions came during traumatic periods — the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, the Great Depression.
Now, according to Census Bureau projections, the country is, at most, likely to have about 4% population growth over this entire decade. The rate will slow further after that.
Should you worry about that?
Some people would say no. Among environmental activists, for example, some take the view that fewer Americans would be a good thing because our lifestyle uses more resources than in other countries.
But there are other ways to reduce the American impact on the global environment — greater reliance on renewable energy, for example.
And a U.S. population decline imposes real, and heavy, costs.
If you plan to retire, or care about the country’s military strength or its economy, an aging or declining population is definitely something to be concerned about.
An older population with a shrinking number of workers makes paying for Social Security or other retirement programs much harder, for example, because there are fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees.
Countries such as Japan and Italy, which are aging faster than the U.S., are already experiencing the problems that population decline brings. Even China, which decades ago adopted drastic policies to hold down its population, is now anxiously trying to restart population growth.
Those countries, notably, don’t allow much immigration.
1 million a year. Or more?
The chief reason for slower growth is a demographic shift that the U.S. shares with almost every other wealthy, developed country: Women are having fewer children, and the population, on average, is getting older.
The U.S. staved off that decline longer than most developed countries, mostly because of “healthy immigration levels from the early 1980s to around the 2010s,” Frey said.
But starting in 2007, with the onset of the Great Recession, population growth rates tumbled and have not recovered.
What population growth has occurred has mostly been due to immigration, Frey recently reported, based on an analysis of census data.
The number of immigrants entering the U.S. slowed sharply during President Trump’s years in office, in part because of new restrictions on legal immigration. Under President Biden, the level has rebounded to about 1 million in 2021 and 1.1 million in 2022.
But even at a rate of 1 million new arrivals a year, U.S. population growth would flatline in about 40 years and then slowly begin to decline, the census says. If immigration were held to the level of the Trump years, the U.S. population would level off in about 15 years and go down after that.
Conservative advocates of less immigration sometimes argue that a decline can be avoided with policies that would entice women into having more children. So far, however, such policies have almost universally failed in countries that have tried them, and even rudimentary pro-family policies, such as subsidized child care, have failed to be approved in the U.S., largely because of opposition from the same conservative political figures who want less immigration.
In the absence of a dramatic, and wholly unlikely, increase in the U.S. birthrate, keeping the population growth at something close to the historical average would require what the census describes as a “high immigration” scenario — about 1.5 million immigrants a year.
Perhaps, as Trump and his allies believe, Americans simply won’t accept that level of newcomers. If that’s the case, however, there’s an inevitable price to pay: an aging population, a declining workforce and a less vibrant America.
A presidential campaign would be a good opportunity to focus voters on that trade-off. But don’t bet on it.
There’s little evidence that America’s gridlocked political system is capable of such a straightforward debate.
Politics
Video: Democrats Demand Guardrails as Government Shutdown Looms
new video loaded: Democrats Demand Guardrails as Government Shutdown Looms
transcript
transcript
Democrats Demand Guardrails as Government Shutdown Looms
Democrats laid out demands for Homeland Security as the Senate prepared to vote on a government spending package. Lawmakers need to reach an agreement by the deadline on Friday to avoid a government shutdown.
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“We want masks off, body cameras on. They also always have to carry proper identification. These are common sense reforms, ones that Americans know and expect from law enforcement. What we want to do is negotiate with the Republicans and come up with a proposal that, again, reins in ICE and ends the violence.” “A government shutdown is not in anybody’s interest. It would affect funding for some really important agencies of government that the American people rely on, like FEMA, particularly at a time when we’ve got a lot of weather-related disasters making their way across the country. So I hope we can get this thing back on track.”
By Shawn Paik
January 29, 2026
Politics
Trump admin finds California ban on notifying parents of gender transitions violated federal law
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The U.S. Department of Education announced on Wednesday that a California policy allowing school districts to keep students’ gender transition from their parents violates federal law.
Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said a federal investigation found that California education officials “egregiously abused” their authority by pressuring school districts to withhold information about students’ gender transitions from their parents.
“Under Gavin Newsom’s failed leadership, school personnel have even bragged about facilitating ‘gender transitions,’ and shared strategies to target minors and conceal information about children from their own families,” she said in a statement. “While the Biden Administration turned a blind eye to this deprivation of parental rights and endorsed the irreversible harms done to children in the name of radical transgender ideology, the Trump Administration will fight relentlessly to end it.”
“Children do not belong to the State—they belong to families. We will use every available mechanism to hold California accountable for these practices and restore parental rights,” the secretary added.
CATHOLIC GROUP ASKS SCOTUS TO BLOCK CALIFORNIA LAW AGAINST REVEALING STUDENTS’ GENDER IDENTITIES TO PARENTS
The U.S. Department of Education said a California policy allowing school districts to keep students’ gender transition from their parents violates federal law. (Getty Images)
California Department of Education spokesperson Liz Sanders said in a statement to Politico that the department was reviewing the letter sent by McMahon but that “we do believe that we have addressed the essence of this letter in previous communications.”
State education officials told school districts in October that the state’s policy “does not mandate nondisclosure.”
The findings of the federal investigation could put at risk the nearly $8 billion in education funding the federal government gives the state each year if state officials do not work with the Trump administration to resolve the violations.
To resolve the violations, the federal government said California can take several actions, including issuing a notice to all superintendents and administrators that “gender support plans” or other related documentation directly related to a student are considered education records and are subject to parental inspection upon request and notifying superintendents and administrators that state laws should not be interpreted to undermine or contradict federal law.
School districts would need to affirm that they are complying with the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, a federal law that gives parents the right to inspect their children’s records, while the state must add content approved by the federal government to its LGBTQ+ cultural competency training.
The state policy, AB 1955, signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2024, banned the parental notification of transgender and gay students’ gender identity or sexual orientation without the student’s consent.
Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said a federal investigation found that California officials “egregiously abused” their authority by pressuring school districts to withhold students’ gender transitions from their parents. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Last spring, the federal government opened an investigation into the state’s Department of Education, arguing state officials were helping “socially transition children at school while hiding minors’ ‘gender identity’ from parents.”
The federal agency also claimed the state was violating the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act.
“AB 1955 does not prohibit LEA staff from sharing any information with parents,” state officials wrote to school districts in October, according to Politico. “Based on the plain language of both laws, there is no conflict between AB 1955 and FERPA, which both permit parental access to their student’s education records upon request.”
Newsom’s office said last year that “parents continue to have full, guaranteed access to their student’s education records as required by federal law,” according to Politico.
The Golden State’s policies are also facing scrutiny in the courts.
TRUMP ADMIN DETERMINES SJSU VIOLATED TITLE IX WITH HANDLING OF TRANS VOLLEYBALL PLAYER BLAIRE FLEMING
The state policy, signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2024, banned the parental notification of transgender and gay students’ gender identity or sexual orientation. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
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A federal judge ruled last month that schools cannot prevent teachers from sharing information about a student’s gender identity with their parents, but an appeals court blocked that ruling earlier this month. A group of California parents who brought the case are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate the earlier decision.
The Trump administration is also pursuing legal action against California and threatening to withhold funding over a policy allowing biological males to compete in girls’ sports.
Politics
Rubio stands by Venezuela attack, says Trump retains authority to use force
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Marco Rubio left the door open Wednesday to future U.S. military action in Venezuela, telling lawmakers that while the Trump administration does not anticipate further escalation, the president retains the authority to use force if Venezuela’s interim leadership or other American adversaries defy U.S. demands.
Rubio’s remarks came hours after President Trump deployed what he called a “massive armada” to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons program, amid broader questions about how recent U.S. tensions with Denmark over Greenland are affecting American relations with NATO allies.
“The president never rules out his options as commander in chief to protect the national interest of the United States,” Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “I can tell you right now with full certainty, we are not postured to, nor do we intend or expect to take any military action in Venezuela at any time.”
The appearance marked Rubio’s first public testimony before a congressional panel since U.S. forces seized former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and brought him to New York to face narco-trafficking charges nearly a month ago. Rubio was pressed by Democratic lawmakers over congressional war powers and whether the operation had meaningfully advanced democracy in Venezuela.
“We’ve traded one dictator for another. All the same people are running the country,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Acting President Delcy Rodríguez “has taken no steps to diminish Iran, China or Russia’s considerable influence in Venezuela.”
Rodríguez, who formerly served as Maduro’s vice president, has committed to opening Venezuela’s energy sector to American companies, providing preferential access to production and using revenues to purchase American goods, according to Rubio’s testimony.
But questions remain about Rodríguez’s own alleged ties to trafficking networks. The Associated Press reported that she has been on the DEA’s radar for years for suspected involvement in drug and gold smuggling, though no public criminal charges have been filed.
And despite Trump’s warning that Rodríguez would “pay a very big price” if she does not cooperate, she has pushed back in public against U.S. pressure over trade policy.
“We have the right to have diplomatic relations with China, with Russia, with Iran, with Cuba, with all the peoples of the world. Also with the United States. We are a sovereign nation,” Rodríguez said earlier this month.
Venezuela is among the largest recipients of Chinese loans globally, with more than $100 billion committed over recent decades. Much of that debt has been repaid through discounted oil shipments under an oil-for-loans framework, financing Chinese-backed infrastructure projects and helping stabilize successive Venezuelan governments.
U.S. military leaders have warned Congress about Iran’s growing strategic presence in the hemisphere, including concerns over ballistic missile capabilities and the supply of attack and surveillance drones to Venezuela.
“If an Iranian drone factory pops up and threatens our forces in the region,” Rubio said, “the president retains the option to eliminate that.”
Democrats also argued that the administration’s broader foreign policy is undercutting U.S. economic strength and alliances, particularly in competition with China.
Despite Trump’s tariff campaign, China posted a record global trade surplus in 2025, lawmakers noted, while estimates show U.S. manufacturing employment has declined by tens of thousands of jobs since the tariffs took effect.
Senators pushed back on the State Department’s assertion that U.S. policy has unified allies against China, arguing instead that tariffs and recent military escalations involving Greenland, Iran and Venezuela have strained relations with key partners. They pointed to Canada as an example, noting that Ottawa recently reached a trade deal with China amid concerns about the reliability of the United States as a partner.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a Republican dissenter on Venezuela, rejected the Trump administration’s framing of Maduro’s capture as a law enforcement operation rather than an act of war.
He pressed Rubio on congressional authorization.
“If we said that a foreign country invaded our capital, bombed all our air defense — which would be an extensive bombing campaign, and it was — removed our president, and then blockaded the country, we would think it was an act of war,” Paul said.
Congressional Republicans voted to dismiss a war powers resolution earlier this month that would have limited Trump’s ability to conduct further attacks on Venezuela after two GOP senators reversed course on supporting the legislation.
They did so based on informal assurances from the administration that it would consult members of Congress before taking military action.
“I was a big fan of [congressional] consultation when I was sitting over there,” Rubio said, joking about his tenure as a senator on the committee. “Now, you know, it’s a different job, different time.”
The War Powers Act dictates how the executive must manage military operations, including that the administration must notify Congress within 48 hours of a military operation.
“And if it’s going to last longer than 60 days, we have to come to Congress with it. We don’t anticipate either of these things having to happen,” Rubio said.
He added that the administration’s end goal is “a friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela,” and cautioned that free and fair elections would take time as the administration works with Rodríguez to stabilize the country.
“You can have elections all day, but if the opposition has no access to the media … those aren’t free and fair elections,” Rubio said. “There’s a percentage of the Venezuelan population … that may not have liked Maduro, but are still committed to Chavista ideology. They’ll be represented in that platform as well.”
Rubio fell short of providing concrete timelines, prompting skepticism from lawmakers who cited ongoing reports that political prisoners remain jailed and that opposition figures such as Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado would still be blocked from seeking office. He will meet with Machado this week to discuss her role in the ongoing regime change.
“I’ve known Maria Corina for probably 12 or 13 years,” Rubio said. “I’ve dealt with her probably more than anybody.”
But the reality on the ground remains difficult, he said, adding the administration has hedged its bets on the existing Venezuelan government to comply with U.S. efforts to stabilize the economy and weed out political violence before fair elections can be held.
“The people that control the guns and the institutions of government there are in the hands of this regime,” Rubio said.
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