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Results: The Most Detailed Maps of the Iowa Republican Caucuses

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Results: The Most Detailed Maps of the Iowa Republican Caucuses

No vote estimates available.

Map is colored by the candidate who leads in each precinct. Lightly shaded areas are more sparsely populated.

Former president Donald J. Trump won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, with The Associated Press calling the race for Mr. Trump less than an hour after caucusing began. The state Republican party is reporting precinct-level results. This is the most detailed vote data available for the first 2024 presidential election contest.

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The map above shows the leading candidate in each precinct. It is shaded according to the number of votes per square mile for that candidate, meaning sparsely populated areas where fewer caucusgoers live are lighter, and denser areas are darker.

How the top three candidates are doing in each precinct

Here’s another way to look at the results. In the maps below, precincts are shaded according to each candidate’s vote share for the three top candidates — Mr. Trump, Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.

How Republicans are voting in different kinds of areas

This table shows the leading candidate in precincts that have reported votes, based on the demographics of those areas.

Precincts in… Leader margin Avg. vote share

Lower income areas

Higher income areas

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Areas with fewer college graduates

Areas with more college graduates

Rural areas

Suburban areas

Urban areas

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Trump’s support

Mr. Trump improved significantly on his performance in the Iowa caucuses in 2016, when he received 24.3 percent of the vote, losing to Ted Cruz, who received 27.6 percent. Mr. Trump gained ground in many kinds of areas, but most of all in areas with lower average incomes and fewer college graduates.

Trump’s Iowa performance in 2016 compared with 2024

Vote share for Trump in precincts …

Each dot in the charts below represents one neighborhood’s caucus precinct. The dots are positioned on the charts based on the percentage of the vote each candidate received in that precinct.

Mr. Trump’s strength on Monday has cut across many different kinds of areas. His lead is most pronounced in areas with fewer college-educated voters.

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Precincts in…

Lower income areas

Areas with fewer college graduates

Areas with more college graduates

DeSantis’s support

Mr. DeSantis is a distant second, trailing Mr. Trump by double digits. Mr. DeSantis, despite campaigning in all 99 Iowa counties, and earning the endorsement of key state officials and religious leaders, has not found consistent pockets of support among key demographic groups.

Precincts in …

Lower income areas

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Areas with fewer college graduates

Areas with more college graduates

Haley’s support

Ms. Haley has performed her best in areas that are wealthier and have a higher concentration of college-educated voters. These include precincts that surround cities like Des Moines and Iowa City.

Precincts in …

Lower income areas

Areas with fewer college graduates

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Areas with more college graduates

Methodology

Higher income areas are precincts where the median household income is $100,000 or more; lower income areas are where the median household income is less than $50,000. Areas with more college graduates are precincts where more than 40 percent of the population has a college education; areas with fewer college graduates are precincts where less than 15 percent of the population graduated college. The classification of areas as urban, rural or suburban is derived from research by Jed Kolko.

Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race last week, but the Iowa Republican Party will still tabulate any votes he receives in the caucuses.

Election results are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials.

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Central time. The New York Times

A light, 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck in Louisiana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:30 a.m. Central time about 6 miles west of Edgefield, La., data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 4.4.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Central time. Shake data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 8:40 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 10:46 a.m. Eastern.

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

The allegation sounded like the stuff of spy movies: A Pakistani businessman trying to hire hit men, even handing them $5,000 in cash, to kill a U.S. politician on behalf of Iran ‘s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

It was true, and potential targets of the 2024 scheme included now-President Donald Trump, then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the man told jurors at his attempted terrorism trial in New York on Wednesday. But he insisted his actions were driven by fear for loved ones in Iran, and he figured he’d be apprehended before anything came of the scheme.

“My family was under threat, and I had to do this,” the defendant, Asif Merchant, testified through an Urdu interpreter. “I was not wanting to do this so willingly.”

Merchant said he had anticipated getting arrested before anyone was killed, intended to cooperate with the U.S. government and had hoped that would help him get a green card.

U.S. authorities were, indeed, on to him – the supposed hit men he paid were actually undercover FBI agents – and he was arrested on July 12, 2024, a day before an unrelated attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania.  During a search, investigators said they found a handwritten note that contained the codewords for the various aspects of the plot, CBS News previously reported

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Merchant did sit for voluntary FBI interviews, but he ultimately ended up with a trial, not a cooperation deal.

“You traveled to the United States for the purpose of hiring Mafia members to kill a politician, correct?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nina Gupta asked during her turn questioning Merchant Wednesday in a Brooklyn federal court.

“That’s right,” Merchant replied, his demeanor as matter-of-fact as his testimony was unusual.

The trial is unfolding amid the less than week-old Iran war, which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike that Trump summed up as “I got him before he got me.” Jurors are instructed to ignore news pertaining to the case.

The Iranian government has denied plotting to kill Trump or other U.S. officials.

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Merchant, 47, had a roughly 20-year banking career in Pakistan before getting involved in an array of businesses: clothing, car sales, banana exports, insulation imports. He openly has two families, one in Pakistan and the other in Iran – where, he said, he was introduced around the end of 2022 to a Revolutionary Guard intelligence operative. They initially spoke about getting involved in a hawala, an informal money transfer system, Merchant said.

Merchant testified that his periodic visits to the U.S. for his garment business piqued the interest of his Revolutionary Guard contact, who trained him on countersurveillance techniques.

The U.S. deems the Revolutionary Guard a “foreign terrorist organization.” Formally called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the force has been prominent in Iran under Khamenei.

Merchant said the handler told him to seek U.S. residents interested in working for Iran. Then came another assignment: Look for a criminal to arrange protests, steal things, do some money laundering, “and maybe have somebody murdered,” Merchant recalled.

“He did not tell me exactly who it is, but he told me – he named three people: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley,” he added.

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In 2024, multiple sources familiar with the investigation told CBS News Merchant planned to assassinate current and former government officials across the political spectrum.

Merchant allegedly sketched out the plot on a napkin inside his New York hotel room, prosecutors said, and told the individual “that there would be ‘security all around’ the person” they were planning to kill.

“No other option”

After U.S. immigration agents pulled Merchant aside at the Houston airport in April 2024, searched his possessions and asked about his travels to Iran, he concluded that he was under surveillance. But still he researched Trump rally locations, sketched out a plot for a shooting at a political rally, lined up the supposed hit men and scrambled together $5,000 from a cousin to pay them a “token of appreciation.”

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant. 

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AP


He even reported back to his Revolutionary Guard contact, sending observations – fake, Merchant said – tucked into a book that he shipped to Iran through a series of intermediaries.

Merchant said he “had no other option” than to play along because the handler had indicated that he knew who Merchant’s Iranian relatives were and where they lived.

In a court filing this week, prosecutors noted that Merchant didn’t seek out law enforcement to help with his purported predicament before he was arrested. He testified that he couldn’t turn to authorities because his handler had people watching him.

Prosecutors also said that in his FBI interviews, Merchant “neglected to mention any facts that could have supported” an argument that he acted under duress.

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Merchant told jurors Wednesday that he didn’t think agents would believe his story, because their questions suggested “they think that I’m some type of super-spy.”

“And are you a super-spy?” defense lawyer Avraham Moskowitz asked.

“No,” Merchant said. “Absolutely not.”

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