Below is an evaluation of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system who readers should consider “imminent big leaguers,” players who might reasonably be expected to play in the majors at some point this year. This includes all prospects on the 40-man roster as well as those who have already established themselves in the upper levels of the minors but aren’t yet rostered. I tend to be more inclusive with pitchers and players at premium defensive positions since their timelines are usually the ones accelerated by injuries and scarcity. Any Top 100 prospects, regardless of their ETA, are also included on this list. Reports, tool grades, and scouting information for all of the prospects below can also be found on The Board.
This is not a top-to-bottom evaluation of the Padres farm system. I like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in my reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows me to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists. However, this approach has led to some situations where outdated analysis (or no analysis at all) was all that existed for players who had already debuted in the majors. Skimming the imminent big leaguers off the top of a farm system will allow this time-sensitive information to make its way onto the site more quickly, better preparing readers for the upcoming season, helping fantasy players as they draft, and building site literature on relevant prospects to facilitate transaction analysis in the event that trades or injuries foist these players into major league roles. There will still be a full Padres prospect list that includes Robby Snelling and Braden Nett and all of the other prospects in the system who appear to be at least another season away. As such, today’s list includes no ordinal rankings. Readers are instead encouraged to focus on the players’ Future Value (FV) grades.
Let’s revisit what FV means before I offer some specific thoughts on this org. Future Value (FV) is a subjective valuation metric derived from the traditional 20-80 scouting scale (where 50 is average and each integer of 10 away from 50 represents one standard deviation) that uses WAR production to set the scale. For instance, an average regular (meaning the 15th-best guy at a given position, give or take) generally produces about 2 WAR annually, so a 50 FV prospect projects as an everyday player who will generate about that much WAR during each of his pre-free agency big league seasons.
Why not just use projected WAR as the valuation metric then? For one, it creates a false sense of precision. This isn’t a model. While a lot of data goes into my decision-making process, a lot of subjectivity does too, in the form of my own visual evaluations, as well as other information related to the players’ careers and baseball backgrounds. A player can have a strong evaluation (emphasis on the “e”) but might be a great distance from the big leagues, or perhaps is injury prone, or a superlative athlete. Context like that might cause me to augment the player’s valuation (no “e”). Using something more subjective like Future Value allows me to dial up and down how I’m interpreting that context.
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There are also many valuable part-time players who can only generate so much WAR due to their lack of playing time. As such, FV grades below 50 tend to describe a role more than they do a particular WAR output; you can glean the projected roles from the players’ reports. In short, anyone who is a 40+ FV player or above projects as an integral big league role player or better.
Now some Padres thoughts. Take a peek at the RosterResource Depth Chart to see just how many free agents A.J. Preller and co. are tasked with replacing while also cutting payroll in the wake of Peter Seidler’s death. Trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to New York helped replenish their pitching staff, though the Friars could still use one proven big league starter, and I think they could stand to upgrade the bottom of their 40-man, too. For instance, 25-year-old lefty Jay Groome is still rookie eligible, but I have him graded below the 35+ FV threshold. He walked 16.7% of opposing hitters last year while his fastball sat just 90-92, and Groome is also out of options. It feels like he’s on the roster bubble. The Soto trade also left them without great in-house options in left and center field. Manny Machado had offseason elbow surgery that might prevent him from playing defense early in the 2024 season, leaving them thin at third base as well.
In addition to the older position player prospects on this list, the Padres have brought in Mason McCoy, Cal Mitchell, Óscar Mercado, and Bryce Johnson on minor league deals at these positions. They at least have a myriad of options in hand right now, many of whom are players one can envision the Padres winning with, though perhaps not winning because of. It would make a ton a sense for Jackson Merrill to play third base or left field during the spring, as his bat feels like the best chance for the Padres to catch a special sort of lightning in a bottle.
The number of potential trade partners that might have 3B/OF/P options to spare will probably be limited to teams mired in true rebuilds. Teams that hope or expect to compete for a playoff spot in 2024 will probably want big leaguers in return, and dealing with them could mean robbing Peter to pay Paul. Teams like the Nationals, Rockies, or White Sox, who are more likely to be happy getting younger prospects back, would seem like better fits.
Padres Imminent Big Leaguers and Top 100 Prospects
When emergencies such as wildfires, floods and rockslides caused road closures on Native American reservations in San Diego County, tribal personnel — including law enforcement, firefighters and elected leadership — couldn’t access their own land to help their community.
This week, that changed.
The Rincon Band of Luiseño Indians, a tribe with a 5,000-acre reservation in Valley Center, partnered with the Sheriff’s Office, the county of San Diego, the county’s Office of Emergency Services and the Southern California Tribal Chairmen’s Association to launch a first-of-its-kind program Tuesday.
Rincon Tribe Chairman Steve Stallings said the idea for an Emergency Tribal Access Pass Training has been in the works for 20 years, following the East County fires.
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The three-hour-long training offers authorized tribal personnel instruction on emergency access procedures, incident command, wildfire safety and first responder coordination. With these passes, they are verified at emergency checkpoints for entry. All tribes in the county can take part in the training.
The Rincon Band of Luiseño Indians hosted its inaugural Emergency Tribal Access Pass Training on Tuesday at the Rincon Government Center. (Sydney Brammer / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
The pass does not grant entry under all circumstances; whichever agency has top authority at emergency scenes will ultimately determine if it’s safe enough for tribal personnel to enter.
While Stallings said there hasn’t been a recent emergency in which tribal members have been denied access to enter their land, he said this is a solution for the future, when tribal personnel need access to help their people and protect government operations and infrastructure on the reservation.
It benefits all groups involved when everyone is on the same page during an emergency, he said.
“If we’re not part of the process, then our team of specialists and urgent personnel are operating independently of other local law enforcement when what you want is everyone coordinated in that,” Stallings said.
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Sheriff Kelly Martinez said this has “been a long time coming” during her opening remarks at the inaugural training on Tuesday at the Rincon Government Center.
“It’s been long overdue that we allow you access to your critical infrastructure,” Martinez said. “I’m happy to support it.”
There are 18 Native American reservations in San Diego County — more than any other county in the United States.
Martinez said there were representatives from 16 of the 18 tribes, totaling about 260 people, in attendance at the Tuesday training.
That day, 143 access passes were distributed to authorized tribal representatives who had completed the required application ahead of the training. The other participants at the training will receive their passes once their applications have been finalized, according to a Rincon Band representative.
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“This is a game changer,” said Rincon Fire Chief Chip Duncan. “When we can’t get on the reservation, we can’t provide service.”
Stallings said the hope is for the training to eventually move online, so people can take the course more quickly.
“We know that this is a change for the better — puts us on equal footing,” Stallings said.
SAN DIEGO – California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation officials are searching for an incarcerated person who walked away from the Male Community Reentry Program in San Diego on July 2, 2026.
At approximately 3:50 p.m., staff received a tamper alert indicating incarcerated person Randy Seitzinger had removed his GPS device while on an approved community medical pass. Staff immediately launched an emergency count, which confirmed Seitzinger was missing. CDCR’s Office of Correctional Safety and local law enforcement have been notified and are assisting in the search.
Seitzinger, 70, is 5 feet 8 inches tall and weighs approximately 191 pounds. He has a light complexion and was last seen wearing blue jeans and a light-colored short-sleeved shirt.
Seitzinger was received from Orange County on May 22, 2019. He was sentenced to 15 years for second-degree robbery and false imprisonment with violence.
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Anyone who sees Seitzinger or has knowledge of his whereabouts should contact any law enforcement agency, call 911, or contact the Office of Correctional Safety staff at 760-550-8782.
The Male Community Reentry Program is a voluntary program for eligible male incarcerated persons. Approved participants serve the end of their sentences in the community in lieu of confinement in state prison. Since 1977, 99 percent of the incarcerated people who have escaped or walked away from an adult institution, camp, in-state contract bed, or community rehabilitative program placement have been apprehended.
The victim was smoking outside the business when a 35-year-old man approached him, threatened to kill him and pulled a knife at around 10 p.m. Monday in the 900 block of Cardiff Street, according to the San Diego Police Department.
Police said the attacker stabbed the man twice in the chest and twice in the arm. It was unclear what prompted the stabbing.
