Despite some cold snaps, this winter season has been unusually warm for Idaho. This year’s El Niño weather pattern might signal an upcoming drought.

So far this season, snowfall in Idaho’s mountains has been about half what it was last year.

“That’s a warning sign that Idaho and much of the Pacific Northwest may be seeing worsening drought conditions,” said Warning Coordination Meteorologist Jay Breidenbach from the National Weather Service in Boise.

Less snow in the winter means the state can expect a dry summer and low water supplies, he said.

Most precipitation in Idaho happens during the winter. He says it would have to snow about twice as much as it usually does between now and April to refill the water supplies by spring and that’s unlikely to happen.

“If we don’t have the snow that normally falls,” Breidenbach said. “Then we have trouble filling the reservoirs. And, when it comes to our hot, dry summer, then we may not have enough water. “

The U.S. Drought Monitor reports abnormally dry conditions in central Idaho and moderate to severe drought in the panhandle.

Most Idahoans live below reservoirs. Lower water levels as the snow melts means less water downstream.

“That certainly would have an impact on people who use that water and need that water for their livelihoods,” he said.

Breidenbach said these warmer temperatures are most likely triggered by El Niño, a cyclical weather pattern that occurs roughly every two to seven years.

Idaho can still look forward to some cold and wet periods this winter. Breidenbach said to expect snowfall this weekend and next week though it’s clear if that cold weather will continue long enough to increase the snowpack.