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Will the EU take a step backwards in evidence-based policymaking?

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Will the EU take a step backwards in evidence-based policymaking?

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Uncertainty and ‘polycrisis’ call for more use of foresight methods, not less. Being guided by the wealth of evidence available is the best way for the EU to set an agenda for a secure, prosperous, and sustainable future, Elizabeth Dirth and Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen write.

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Responsible policymakers are informed by evidence, especially in times of uncertainty. To navigate complex trade-offs, deal with unpredictability, and balance the interests of the present, the near- and the far-future, evidence-based strategic foresight is a powerful compass to guide decisions. 

Used well, Europe’s advanced foresight tools can give it a long-term competitive edge.

That’s why it’s so alarming that EU heads of state and government appear to be ready to ignore the wealth of evidence at their disposal, if the leaked priority-setting document for the next five years of the EU institutions – the Strategic Agenda – does not change.

The provisional priorities, which have been drafted through a series of consultations with European leaders led by European Council President Charles Michel, are not coherent with the EU’s own foresight intelligence. 

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The most glaring discrepancy is the absence of sustainability. Shifting towards sustainability has been a consistent pillar of future-focused policymaking recommendations, but this does not appear in the draft priorities for 2024-2029.

One leap forward, two steps back?

The evidence at leaders’ disposal has been meticulously assembled. Over the last five years the EU has taken leaps forward in “future thinking” and equipped itself with a vast quantity of information and insights about the possible “futures” we face, summarised in the annual Strategic Foresight reports. Strategic foresight is a serious discipline; a systemic way to help prepare for future shocks and opportunities.

In 2019, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen created, for the first time, a position dedicated to the task of embedding strategic foresight in the heart of EU policymaking. Executive Vice-President and European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been the face of foresight since then. 

Under his tenure the capacity to deliver future intelligence has been strengthened in the Commission’s in-house science unit, the Joint Research Centre, and in the central Secretariat General which reports directly to von der Leyen. 

In parallel, an internal network of foresight practitioners has been built-up, and a group of Ministers for the Future from the national level has been convened.

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All this has fed into robust annual reports which provide a body of evidence on the threats and trends Europe needs to prepare for and identify “key action areas” to inform the European Commission’s work and the direction of the bloc.

Resilience, sustainability and wellbeing have been constant themes over recent years. As have security and defence, democracy and the rule of law.

But whilst the latter group are well catered for in the new Strategic Agenda, environment and climate considerations and sustainable wellbeing are practically non-existent.

EU leaders ignoring the evidence

Looking at the leaked draft of EU leaders’ top priorities side-by-side with the most recent strategic foresight report, it appears that the insights which the European Commission has invested the last five years in building up are being ignored.

Last year’s foresight communication was titled “Sustainability and people’s wellbeing at the heart of Europe’s Open Strategic Autonomy”. 

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The 21-page document names “sustainable” or “sustainability” no fewer than 80 times. Of its 10 priority areas for action, six are actions about delivering a sustainable transition – through a net-zero economy, shifts in production and consumption, financial flows, public budgets, indicators, and by making sure all Europeans can contribute to the transition.

The draft five-year agenda relegates resilience, a goal for which the current Commission mobilised €648 billion, to one narrow reference in relation to resource-use. Climate is mentioned only two times – once in connection to innovation, and once in the bullet point: “Prepare for the new realities stemming from climate change”. 

Neither decarbonisation nor net-zero were worthy of mention by heads of state, despite the binding goal of a net-zero Europe by 2050.

In other words, key priorities from the EU’s official unit for future-preparedness are largely missing from guidance issued by EU heads of state.

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And whilst the leaked Strategic Agenda overlooks key aspects of the EU’s own research and evidence, neither is it informed by public opinion.

Recent EU Barometer polls tell us 85% of EU citizens think climate action leads to greater wellbeing and more jobs, 78% think climate action will help the economy, and 83% agree that the EU should invest massively in renewable energies. (The EU Barometers are another rich source of evidence – this one focused on public attitudes and citizens’ support for policies – which EU leaders appear to be opting to disregard.)

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We need a foresight-based strategy for Europe

Aligning the EU priorities 2024-2029 with foresight and public opinion is crucial, and still possible. The key areas of action flowing from the foresight reports can complete the draft Strategic Agenda with missing elements, primarily sustainability.

Uncertainty and “polycrisis” call for more use of foresight methods, not less, for example via a “chief foresighter” at EU level to embed the practice across policy areas and institutions. 

Being guided by the wealth of evidence available is the best way for the EU to set an agenda for a secure, prosperous, sustainable future.

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Elizabeth Dirth is Managing Director at the ZOE Institute for Future-fit Economies, and Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen is Director and Futurist at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.

Contact us at view@euronews.com to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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France’s Macron Faces Dilemma With Intention to Recognize Palestinian State

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France’s Macron Faces Dilemma With Intention to Recognize Palestinian State

Turbulent relations between France and Israel are nothing new, but even by those historical standards the crisis caused by President Emmanuel Macron’s apparently imminent readiness to recognize a Palestinian state is acute.

The postponement, as a result of fighting between Israel and Iran, of a United Nations conference this week convened to explore the creation of a Palestinian state has deferred any announcement but appears to have redoubled Mr. Macron’s resolve. “Whatever the circumstances, I have stated my determination to recognize a Palestinian state,” Mr. Macron said on Friday. “That determination is whole.”

“We must reorganize it as soon as we can,” he said of the conference, which he was to chair with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. French officials close to Mr. Macron say he has told the crown prince of his firm intention to recognize a Palestinian state.

Vilified by Israel as leading “a crusade against the Jewish state,” and spurned in his peacemaking efforts by the United States, which is implacably opposed to the conference and has urged countries to shun it, Mr. Macron is confronted by a diplomatic predicament that will test his renowned adaptability, viewed by some as wobbliness.

Mr. Macron — outraged, like much of the world, by the almost 56,000 Palestinians killed by Israel in Gaza since the start of the war, and by its near or total blockade of the strip in recent months — has spoken of “a moral duty and political requirement” to recognize a Palestinian state.

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In the absence of Israeli plans for Gaza, and in the face of Israel’s bombardment of Iran aimed at destroying its nuclear program, Mr. Macron believes that only a strong political commitment to Palestinian statehood can open the way to a two-state peace, persuade Hamas to lay down its arms and eventually advance regional stability.

The Israeli view is the opposite: that French recognition would reward Hamas terrorism. A senior French envoy, speaking on condition of anonymity, said she was dressed down for several hours this month in Jerusalem by Ron Dermer, the Israeli minister of strategic affairs, and Tzachi Hanegbi, the national security adviser, who told her that Mr. Macron serves the ends of Hamas and “supports a terrorist state.”

“I suspect there is some relief at the postponement,” said Lakhdar Brahimi, a former Algerian foreign minister and long a senior U.N. diplomat, referring to the conference’s French and Saudi co-chairs. “What are they going to do without U.S. support? This will change nothing on the ground.”

The history of ties between Israel and France, which hesitated before recognizing the newborn state in 1949, only to provide critical military and technological support, has known many highs and lows. “This is a moment of particularly extreme tension,” said Miriam Rosman, an Israeli historian who wrote a book on the relationship. “Macron is neither consequential nor coherent and may be on the verge of a grave error.”

That is not the view of several officials in Mr. Macron’s entourage, including his diplomatic adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, and his Middle East adviser, Anne-Claire Legendre. They share the conviction of a growing number of European states, many previously supportive of Israel, that the most right-wing government in Israel’s history is leading the country down a blind alley at devastating cost in Palestinian lives.

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For Israel, France is a point of particular sensitivity. Spanish, Irish and Norwegian recognition of a Palestinian state last year was one thing; French recognition would be of a different order, given the intensity of an emotional historical bond.

France is the only nuclear power and only permanent member of the U.N. Security Council in the European Union. Some 150,000 French citizens live in Israel, according to the foreign ministry; 48 of them were among the 1,200 people killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

“There is fundamental French attachment and commitment to Israel that stems in part from the history of the Vichy regime,” said Gilles Kepel, a leading French expert on the Middle East. The regime, which led a rump France under Nazi occupation, deported 76,000 Jews to their deaths.

France made a critical contribution in the 1950s to Israel’s development of its unacknowledged nuclear bomb. It provided Mirage fighter jets that played an important role in Israel’s defense.

In 1967, however, President Charles de Gaulle called the Jews an “elite people, sure of itself and domineering.” Israel was outraged. Seeking to heal the wounds of the Algerian war, he set out to befriend the Arab world and imposed an arms embargo on Israel.

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Support for Israel has since been tempered by an unbending French commitment to a Palestinian state, initially laid out before the Knesset in 1982 by President François Mitterrand, the first French head of state to visit Israel. Unlike the United States, France has been consistent in its rejection of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, which has turned Palestinian statehood into an ever more distant chimera.

“Recognition and full admission of the Palestinian state to the United Nations are a precursor to a political solution,” said a French statement that reflected Mr. Macron’s thinking and was intended to set the framework for the conference in New York.

This amounts to the antithesis of the Israeli and American positions that any Palestinian state demands prior negotiation on security, borders, governance and other matters. But that approach has yielded nothing for a long time. Just this month, Israel announced it would build 22 new settlements in the West Bank, the largest expansion in two decades.

“The United States opposes any steps that would unilaterally recognize a conjectural Palestinian state,” the Trump administration said in a cable last week first reported by Reuters.

On Thursday, Mr. Macron posted a statement on X lauding Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, saying that a letter “of hope, courage and clarity” received from him last Tuesday “traced the path toward a horizon of peace.”

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In the letter, Mr. Abbas called for Hamas to “hand over its weapons,” immediately free all hostages and leave Gaza. He also committed to reform the notoriously corrupt and ineffective Palestinian Authority.

The letter met several of the conditions set by Mr. Macron for French recognition of a Palestinian state. But other voices close to the president are pushing him in another direction.

“The very idea of Palestinian state can only be envisaged after Hamas has laid down its arms, its commanders in Gaza have gone into exile, and the people of the West Bank and Gaza have renounced their murderous dream of a Palestine stretching from the sea to the Jordan border,” said Bernard-Henri Lévy, a French author and intellectual who has the ear of Mr. Macron.

He suggested that Mr. Macron was still torn, buffeted from both sides, but leaning in the direction of delaying French recognition, which the president has said should not come in isolation. Germany, a close ally of both France and Israel, said this month that recognition would send “the wrong signal.”

As for Prince Mohamed of Saudi Arabia, he finds himself obliged to juggle his close relationship with President Trump and his determination to advance Palestinian statehood. While the prince has described Israel’s war in Gaza as “genocide,” Mr. Macron has gone through contortions to appear balanced since Oct. 7, 2023.

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The French president governs the largest Muslim and Jewish populations in Western Europe. He is confronted by a far left that has made “Free Palestine” its slogan and by the inescapability of France’s historical debt to Jews.

“This is no gift” and comes “far, far too late,” Rima Hassan, a far-left French member of the European Parliament, who is of Palestinian descent, said in April of Mr. Macron’s stated intention to recognize a Palestinian state. She was recently detained by Israel when aboard a charity vessel trying to take aid to Gaza and was later released.

Now Mr. Macron, the “at-the-same-time” president, so-called for his endless equivocations, must make up his mind. Of the 193 U.N. members, 147 have already recognized a Palestinian state.

But, as Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington, put it, “French recognition would bring greater diplomatic pressure on Israel and further erosion of our legitimacy, but not the creation of a Palestinian state any time soon, if ever.”

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Evangelical leaders praise Trump’s continued support for Israel amid war with Iran

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Evangelical leaders praise Trump’s continued support for Israel amid war with Iran

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Some of the most influential evangelical leaders in the U.S. told Fox News Digital that they believe President Donald Trump’s support for Israel is unwavering as the Jewish state finds itself at war with Iran.

Speaking before and after the start of Israel’s military campaign against the regime, the leaders highlighted the millennialong connection of the Jewish people to their historical homeland, while also emphasizing the shared values rooted in biblical teachings.

The evangelical community helped deliver the White House to President Donald Trump and, therefore, believes his administration should support Israel’s biblical rights to its historical heartland of Judea and Samaria, Dr. Mike Evans, founder of Friends of Zion, told Fox News Digital.

“We hold strongly to that stand. President Trump won because of the Evangelical vote. There are 52 million of us in America, and we are Bible believers,” he continued. “Jesus said, ‘You will be my witnesses in Jerusalem and in all Judea and Samaria,’” he said. His organization claims nearly 30 million members.

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TRUMP SAYS ISRAEL AND IRAN ‘HAVE TO FIGHT IT OUT’ BUT BELIEVES DEAL IS POSSIBLE

An Israeli soldier attaches an Israeli flag on top of an armored personnel carrier near Israel’s border with Gaza, in southern Israel, on Monday, April 15, 2024. (AP)

Evans praised the president’s stance on Iran, saying, “The Trump strategy is brilliant because he’s giving Iran a way out, but he’s not taking it off the table that the U.S. will bomb Iran. Quite the contrary, he’s made it very clear that if Iran does anything to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East or Americans, they will have hell to pay.”

Pastor John Hagee, founder and chairman of Christians United for Israel, which numbers 10 million members, told Fox News Digital that Israel has long been a central concern for American evangelicals, a priority that has only intensified since the 9/11 attacks and more recently in the aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre. For evangelical Christians, he said, support for Israel is rooted in religious conviction rather than political ideology. They view appeasement of Iran or engagement with terrorists not just as flawed policy, but as morally wrong and fundamentally evil.

Just days before Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, and amid isolationist criticism against Israel, Hagee told Fox News Digital, “I do not think President Trump will allow himself to be played by Iranian negotiators or American isolationists. When it’s all said and done, I believe President Trump is willing to do what it takes to ensure Iran is defanged either by enabling our strongest ally, Israel, to defend itself or otherwise.”

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Iran attacks Israel

Israeli air defenses seen in the skies over northern Israel during an Iranian missile attack. June 16, 2025. (Photos by Anthony Hershko/TPS-IL)

Following Israel’s surprise attack on Iran, Hagee released a recorded message as part of an action alert asking his supporters to contact President Trump, thank him for his support of Israel and urge him to continue.

“We must stand with Israel today and every day. Iran’s future as an evil force in the Middle East is now in question. Only the people of Iran can take the country back. But Israel has opened the door for them and given the world room to breathe. Now the U.S. must take its seat at the head of the international table and stand alongside the only American ally in the free world willing to do what is necessary to protect the free world,” Hagee said.

HUCKABEE CONDEMNS EFFORTS TO ERASE JEWISH HISTORY TO THE HOLY LAND AS ‘ABSURD’

Franklin Graham, president of Samaritan’s Purse and the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association, posted about the growing threat Iran poses to both Israel and the United States on X.

“Iran has said that they want to wipe Israel off the face of the map. They would also like to destroy America. Iran is a sponsor of terror … Israel has been forced into defending itself and needs our prayers,” he added. “All of us who believe in the Lord Jesus Christ and trust Him should ‘Pray for the peace of Jerusalem’ (Psalm 122:6). Pray that this can be resolved quickly.”

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Graham pointed to the long connection of the Jewish people to their historic homeland, while also emphasizing the shared values rooted in biblical teachings.

Evangelical-Leaders

From left to right, Franklin Graham, Dr. Mike Evans and Pastor John Hagee are urging President Donald Trump to continue backing Israel as the Jewish state fights a war against Iran. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images | Mike Evans; Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images | John Hagee; CUFI/Cornerstone Church, San Antonio, TX.)

“Most evangelical Christians believe the Bible and, of course, we believe Genesis, we believe God gave the land to Abraham, Isaac and Jacob and that every inch of that land belongs to the Jews,” Graham told Fox News Digital.

He underscored the importance of continued U.S. support for Israel, citing both strategic and democratic considerations.

“The U.S. government has supported Israel since it became a nation, and for that support to continue is extremely important. It’s the only democracy in the Middle East, the only place where elections are held. No one else in that part of the world has the kinds of freedoms that Israelis have,” Graham said.

Evans, also quoting scripture, noted that, “In Genesis chapter 12, God said, ‘I will bless those who bless you, and I will curse him who curses you.’ Evangelicals believe that pressuring Israel to give up land will bring a curse on America. If they have to choose between God’s word and anyone else’s, they will choose God’s word,” he said.

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Hagee also cited biblical teachings that promise blessings for those who bless Israel, framing the principle as both a spiritual conviction and a practical truth.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks at a meeting in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 5, 2020. Khamenei said Wednesday that President Donald Trump's Middle East plan will not outlive the president.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks at a meeting in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 5, 2020. Khamenei said Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s Middle East plan will not outlive the president. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

“Consider the tangible results that cannot be denied—whether through intelligence and technology sharing or fighting on the front lines of the global war on terror, America has been blessed by supporting Israel in numerous ways. If we turn our backs on Israel, not only will God turn His back on America, but we will lose freedom’s foothold in the Middle East,” he told Fox News Digital.

ISRAEL’S ACTIONS AGAINST IRAN CREATE STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITY FOR US IN NUCLEAR TALKS, EXPERTS SAY

Hagee noted that the issue has become deeply personal for many in the United States, especially in light of recent antisemitic attacks on American soil. These include the terror incident in Boulder, Colorado, where an illegal Egyptian immigrant injured 15 people with Molotov cocktails during a march supporting hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza, as well as the fatal shooting outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., which claimed the lives of two staff members from the Israeli Embassy.

“We expect Congress to take up meaningful legislation aimed at combating the scourge of violent antisemitism raging across the country,” Hagee said.

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He condemned the political delays surrounding the Antisemitism Awareness Act and the lack of progress on the Countering Hate Against Israel by Federal Contractors Act, which would prohibit federal agencies from engaging with companies that promote a boycott of Israel.

“That Congress continues to dither here is shameful,” Hagee said.

For his part, Evans told Fox News digital that another issue that the Trump administration appears to be confronting aggressively: a French-Saudi-sponsored conference to push for the recognition of a Palestinian state.

March For Israel, Washington DC

Pastor John Hagee speaks during “March For Israel” at the National Mall on Nov. 14, 2023 in Washington, D.C.

“We’re not overly concerned, because we know the president will oppose this move at the U.N. Security Council,” he said. “The United States will not back a Palestinian state at this time, as the entire premise of statehood has been based on land-for-peace—a concept that assumes Israel can secure peace by relinquishing territory. But Israelis have given up land and lost lives in the process, and it hasn’t worked.”

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“Israel is facing an existential threat and can no longer capitulate or play the land-for-peace game. Palestinians can lead a better life, as we’ve seen with Israeli Arabs, who have a better quality of life in Israel than anywhere else in the Middle East,” Evans continued. “The only way forward is if they stop resorting to terrorism, and we believe the president supports this position of moral clarity, as do all Evangelicals.”

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IAEA warns Israel-Iran conflict threatens nuclear facilities, diplomacy

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IAEA warns Israel-Iran conflict threatens nuclear facilities, diplomacy

Rafael Grossi. head of UN’s nuclear watchdog, warns Israeli conflict with Iran ‘threatens lives’ and risks nuclear fallout.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has warned that escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, now in a fourth day, pose grave dangers to diplomacy and nuclear safety and has urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint.

Speaking at an emergency session of the United Nations nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors on Monday in Vienna, Director General Grossi stressed that the region is at a critical juncture.

“Military escalation threatens lives, increases the chance of a radiological release with serious consequences for people and the environment, and delays indispensable work towards a diplomatic solution for the long-term assurance that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon,” Grossi said.

The IAEA chief’s remarks came amid growing concern that the conflict could permanently damage efforts to revive nuclear talks with Tehran, already strained by years of mistrust and United States President Donald Trump’s torpedoing of the 2015 nuclear accord brokered by world powers with Iran.

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Nuclear sites damaged

Grossi also delivered a technical update on the status of Iranian nuclear facilities after Israeli bombardments.

Natanz, Iran’s main uranium enrichment plant, was among the sites hit on Friday. While its underground section was spared a direct strike, Grossi warned that vital equipment may have been damaged due to a power outage triggered by the attack.

He noted that radiation levels outside the facility remained normal and, critically, there was no evidence of contamination spreading beyond the site.

“The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels, indicating no external radiological impact to the population or the environment from this event,” he said.

In addition to Natanz, four nuclear installations in Isfahan province were also damaged. However, the Fordow enrichment site, the Bushehr nuclear power plant and a reactor still under construction appeared unaffected.

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IAEA personnel remain on the ground in Iran and are ready to resume full monitoring once the security situation allows, Grossi said.

Meanwhile, Iran’s government is facing pressure at home to take a harder line. A bill reportedly being prepared in parliament could pave the way for Iran to exit the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a move that would deal a severe blow to global nonproliferation efforts.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the draft legislation was still in its early stages and would require coordination with lawmakers. He reiterated Tehran’s longstanding official opposition to developing nuclear weapons.

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