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Will the EU take a step backwards in evidence-based policymaking?

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Will the EU take a step backwards in evidence-based policymaking?

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Uncertainty and ‘polycrisis’ call for more use of foresight methods, not less. Being guided by the wealth of evidence available is the best way for the EU to set an agenda for a secure, prosperous, and sustainable future, Elizabeth Dirth and Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen write.

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Responsible policymakers are informed by evidence, especially in times of uncertainty. To navigate complex trade-offs, deal with unpredictability, and balance the interests of the present, the near- and the far-future, evidence-based strategic foresight is a powerful compass to guide decisions. 

Used well, Europe’s advanced foresight tools can give it a long-term competitive edge.

That’s why it’s so alarming that EU heads of state and government appear to be ready to ignore the wealth of evidence at their disposal, if the leaked priority-setting document for the next five years of the EU institutions – the Strategic Agenda – does not change.

The provisional priorities, which have been drafted through a series of consultations with European leaders led by European Council President Charles Michel, are not coherent with the EU’s own foresight intelligence. 

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The most glaring discrepancy is the absence of sustainability. Shifting towards sustainability has been a consistent pillar of future-focused policymaking recommendations, but this does not appear in the draft priorities for 2024-2029.

One leap forward, two steps back?

The evidence at leaders’ disposal has been meticulously assembled. Over the last five years the EU has taken leaps forward in “future thinking” and equipped itself with a vast quantity of information and insights about the possible “futures” we face, summarised in the annual Strategic Foresight reports. Strategic foresight is a serious discipline; a systemic way to help prepare for future shocks and opportunities.

In 2019, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen created, for the first time, a position dedicated to the task of embedding strategic foresight in the heart of EU policymaking. Executive Vice-President and European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been the face of foresight since then. 

Under his tenure the capacity to deliver future intelligence has been strengthened in the Commission’s in-house science unit, the Joint Research Centre, and in the central Secretariat General which reports directly to von der Leyen. 

In parallel, an internal network of foresight practitioners has been built-up, and a group of Ministers for the Future from the national level has been convened.

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All this has fed into robust annual reports which provide a body of evidence on the threats and trends Europe needs to prepare for and identify “key action areas” to inform the European Commission’s work and the direction of the bloc.

Resilience, sustainability and wellbeing have been constant themes over recent years. As have security and defence, democracy and the rule of law.

But whilst the latter group are well catered for in the new Strategic Agenda, environment and climate considerations and sustainable wellbeing are practically non-existent.

EU leaders ignoring the evidence

Looking at the leaked draft of EU leaders’ top priorities side-by-side with the most recent strategic foresight report, it appears that the insights which the European Commission has invested the last five years in building up are being ignored.

Last year’s foresight communication was titled “Sustainability and people’s wellbeing at the heart of Europe’s Open Strategic Autonomy”. 

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The 21-page document names “sustainable” or “sustainability” no fewer than 80 times. Of its 10 priority areas for action, six are actions about delivering a sustainable transition – through a net-zero economy, shifts in production and consumption, financial flows, public budgets, indicators, and by making sure all Europeans can contribute to the transition.

The draft five-year agenda relegates resilience, a goal for which the current Commission mobilised €648 billion, to one narrow reference in relation to resource-use. Climate is mentioned only two times – once in connection to innovation, and once in the bullet point: “Prepare for the new realities stemming from climate change”. 

Neither decarbonisation nor net-zero were worthy of mention by heads of state, despite the binding goal of a net-zero Europe by 2050.

In other words, key priorities from the EU’s official unit for future-preparedness are largely missing from guidance issued by EU heads of state.

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And whilst the leaked Strategic Agenda overlooks key aspects of the EU’s own research and evidence, neither is it informed by public opinion.

Recent EU Barometer polls tell us 85% of EU citizens think climate action leads to greater wellbeing and more jobs, 78% think climate action will help the economy, and 83% agree that the EU should invest massively in renewable energies. (The EU Barometers are another rich source of evidence – this one focused on public attitudes and citizens’ support for policies – which EU leaders appear to be opting to disregard.)

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We need a foresight-based strategy for Europe

Aligning the EU priorities 2024-2029 with foresight and public opinion is crucial, and still possible. The key areas of action flowing from the foresight reports can complete the draft Strategic Agenda with missing elements, primarily sustainability.

Uncertainty and “polycrisis” call for more use of foresight methods, not less, for example via a “chief foresighter” at EU level to embed the practice across policy areas and institutions. 

Being guided by the wealth of evidence available is the best way for the EU to set an agenda for a secure, prosperous, sustainable future.

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Elizabeth Dirth is Managing Director at the ZOE Institute for Future-fit Economies, and Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen is Director and Futurist at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.

Contact us at view@euronews.com to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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World

Paul Skenes Rookie Card Hunt Pits Auction House Against Pirates

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Paul Skenes Rookie Card Hunt Pits Auction House Against Pirates

The hottest bidding war in baseball right now is not over Juan Soto, but a baseball card.

On Nov. 10, Topps announced the release of a one-of-one Paul Skenes rookie debut autographed card featuring a patch worn during his first pro game. The card of the Pittsburgh Pirates phenom is available in one pack of 2024 Topps Chrome Updates.

Yet on Friday morning, the Pirates themselves sent the baseball world into a tizzy with a Willy Wonka-like offer to the lucky person who pulls the card.

In a detailed tweet, the Pirates said that in exchange for the item, they would provide two season tickets behind home plate for the next 30 years, a softball game for 30 people at PNC Park (the Pirates’ home) where players will be coached by team alumni, and a one-of-a-kind spring training package.

The spring training experience will include a meet-and-greet with Skenes, two of his autographed jerseys, a chance to take batting practice and warmups with the team and other one-of-a-kind experiences at LECOM Park, the Pirates’ spring training stadium in Bradenton, Fla.

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But Ken Goldin, the founder of collectibles firm Goldin Auctions, upped the ante with an alternative offer of cold hard cash. In his quote tweet of the Pirates’ post, he said “Before anyone takes this or any deal, email me directly. @GoldinCo will sell the card for you, put your kids thru college and you can use the leftover money to buy entry into a meet and greet with Skenes if you want….”

With a nod to the Shohei Ohtani, the star of Netflix’s King of Collectibles: The Goldin Touch said a deal with his firm paid off handsomely for the person who ended up with the 50/50 home run ball hit by the Los Angeles Dodgers’ star. “Just ask the last guy who turned down an offer from an MLB team how that worked out for him (Shohei 50 HR ball).”

On Oct. 23, the historic ball sold for $4.4 million after a late bidding rally ran the nearly month-long auction past midnight on the final day. The buyer was a Taiwanese investment firm, UC Capital Ltd., which plans to publicly display the ball for fans to see.

As if those bids weren’t enough, the holder of the card could also join Skenes’ girlfriend, social media star and LSU gymnast Olivia “Livvy” Dunne in her suite at PNC Park.

And if the card owner is kind enough to let him “LOOK at it for a SECOND,” late night talk show host and avowed Pirates fan Seth Meyers is offering four VIP tickets to check out Late Night with Seth Meyers.

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Skenes, whom the Pirates drafted No. 1 overall out of LSU in 2023, had one of the best rookie campaigns in recent memory. The 22-year-old right-hander was named an NL Cy Young finalist, an NL Rookie of the Year finalist, an All-MLB First Team selection and the starting pitcher for the NL at this summer’s All-Star Game. In 23 starts, Skenes posted an 11-3 record with a 1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP.

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Fire kills at least 10 people in Spanish retirement home

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Fire kills at least 10 people in Spanish retirement home

At least 10 people were killed after a fire broke out in a retirement home in the northern Spanish town of Villafranca de Ebro early Friday, authorities said.

The blaze started in one of the rooms, Fernando Beltran, the national government’s top official in Aragon region, told reporters.

SPAIN SEARCHES FOR BODIES AFTER UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING CLAIMS AT LEAST 158 LIVES

All the victims were elderly people living in the Jardines de Villafranca residence, a care home for people with mental health issues, Aragon regional president Jorge Azcon told reporters.

One person was in a critical condition and another was in a serious condition, Azcon said.

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Members of the criminalistics unit of the Spanish civil guard work at the nursing home that caught fire early on Friday, killing several people, according to the regional government of Aragon, in Villafranca de Ebro, Spain, Friday.  (Reuters/Pablo Ibanez)

The fire started at around 5 a.m. local time, and it took about two hours for firefighters to extinguish it, a spokesperson for the regional government said.

Firefighter chief Eduardo Sanchez told reporters the fire was contained to the room where it started and that the fatalities were caused by smoke inhalation.

“The doors were closed, they prevented the fire from spreading. The tragedy could have been worse,” Azcon said after visiting the building.

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Several residents were treated, mainly for smoke inhalation, mayor Volga Ramirez said.

Authorities have opened an investigation into the cause of the fire.

Azcon said the priority now was to transfer the residents who were not injured in the blaze to another care home in nearby Huesca.

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Israel ramps up attacks on Lebanon as officials study US ceasefire plan

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Israel ramps up attacks on Lebanon as officials study US ceasefire plan

The Israeli military has carried out air raids in the suburbs of Beirut for the fourth consecutive day as Lebanese officials studied a US plan for a ceasefire.

Israeli air strikes flattened five buildings in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs on Friday. One of them was located near one of Beirut’s busiest traffic junctions, Tayouneh.

The Israeli military said its fighter jets attacked munitions warehouses, a headquarters and other infrastructure used by the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Reporting from Beirut, Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr said the Israeli military had issued two forced evacuation orders before the attacks.

“[Residents] are forced to leave their homes only to watch the strikes come in and wonder whether or not they have a home to return to. There are no casualties because many people left the area and because of these evacuation orders,” she said.

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“Human rights groups have criticised these forced evacuation orders, saying most of the time they don’t give people enough time to leave,” Khodr added.

Meanwhile, Iran-aligned Hezbollah said it fired rockets at a group of Israeli soldiers in Misgav Am and the Yiftah barracks in northern Israel.

The Lebanese armed group said in a statement on Telegram it also attacked another group of Israeli soldiers with rockets on the eastern outskirts of the Lebanese town of Markaba.

Hezbollah also said it attacked Israeli soldiers in northern Israel’s Sasa and Dishon.

Israel’s military escalated its attacks on Lebanon in late September after almost a year of cross-border hostilities with the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in parallel with the Gaza war. It says it aims to secure the return home of tens of thousands of Israelis, forced to evacuate from northern Israel under Hezbollah fire.

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Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have forced more than one million Lebanese to flee their homes, igniting a humanitarian crisis.

It has dealt Hezbollah serious blows, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders. Hezbollah has kept up rocket attacks into Israel and its fighters have been battling Israeli troops in the south.

Ceasefire talks

Diplomacy attempting to reach a ceasefire has shown tentative signs of progress this week.

The Reuters news agency reported on Thursday that the US ambassador to Lebanon had presented a draft ceasefire proposal to Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, citing two senior political sources. Berri is endorsed by Hezbollah to negotiate and met the senior Iranian official Ali Larijani on Friday. The AFP news agency reported that senior Lebanese officials are reviewing the US proposal.

A senior Iranian official said on Friday that Iran would back any decision made by Lebanon in truce talks, signalling Tehran wants to see an end to the conflict.

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Asked at a news conference whether he had come to Beirut to undermine the US truce plan, Larijani said, “We are not looking to sabotage anything. We are after a solution to the problems.”

“We support in all circumstances the Lebanese government. Those who are disrupting are Netanyahu and his people,” Larijani added, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

World powers have said a Lebanon ceasefire must be based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a previous 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. Its terms require Hezbollah to move weapons and fighters north of the Litani River, which runs some 20km (30 miles) north of the border.

Israel has demanded the freedom to attack, should Hezbollah violate any agreement – a demand that Lebanon has rejected.

In a meeting with Larijani, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged support for Lebanon’s position on implementing 1701 and called this a priority, along with halting the “Israeli aggression”, a statement from his office said.

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Larijani stressed “that Iran supports any decision taken by the government, especially resolution 1701”, the statement said.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister and a member of its security cabinet, told Reuters that prospects for a ceasefire were the most promising since the conflict began.

At least 3,386 people have been killed and 14,417 wounded in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since October 2023.

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