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Will the EU take a step backwards in evidence-based policymaking?

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Will the EU take a step backwards in evidence-based policymaking?

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Uncertainty and ‘polycrisis’ call for more use of foresight methods, not less. Being guided by the wealth of evidence available is the best way for the EU to set an agenda for a secure, prosperous, and sustainable future, Elizabeth Dirth and Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen write.

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Responsible policymakers are informed by evidence, especially in times of uncertainty. To navigate complex trade-offs, deal with unpredictability, and balance the interests of the present, the near- and the far-future, evidence-based strategic foresight is a powerful compass to guide decisions. 

Used well, Europe’s advanced foresight tools can give it a long-term competitive edge.

That’s why it’s so alarming that EU heads of state and government appear to be ready to ignore the wealth of evidence at their disposal, if the leaked priority-setting document for the next five years of the EU institutions – the Strategic Agenda – does not change.

The provisional priorities, which have been drafted through a series of consultations with European leaders led by European Council President Charles Michel, are not coherent with the EU’s own foresight intelligence. 

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The most glaring discrepancy is the absence of sustainability. Shifting towards sustainability has been a consistent pillar of future-focused policymaking recommendations, but this does not appear in the draft priorities for 2024-2029.

One leap forward, two steps back?

The evidence at leaders’ disposal has been meticulously assembled. Over the last five years the EU has taken leaps forward in “future thinking” and equipped itself with a vast quantity of information and insights about the possible “futures” we face, summarised in the annual Strategic Foresight reports. Strategic foresight is a serious discipline; a systemic way to help prepare for future shocks and opportunities.

In 2019, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen created, for the first time, a position dedicated to the task of embedding strategic foresight in the heart of EU policymaking. Executive Vice-President and European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been the face of foresight since then. 

Under his tenure the capacity to deliver future intelligence has been strengthened in the Commission’s in-house science unit, the Joint Research Centre, and in the central Secretariat General which reports directly to von der Leyen. 

In parallel, an internal network of foresight practitioners has been built-up, and a group of Ministers for the Future from the national level has been convened.

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All this has fed into robust annual reports which provide a body of evidence on the threats and trends Europe needs to prepare for and identify “key action areas” to inform the European Commission’s work and the direction of the bloc.

Resilience, sustainability and wellbeing have been constant themes over recent years. As have security and defence, democracy and the rule of law.

But whilst the latter group are well catered for in the new Strategic Agenda, environment and climate considerations and sustainable wellbeing are practically non-existent.

EU leaders ignoring the evidence

Looking at the leaked draft of EU leaders’ top priorities side-by-side with the most recent strategic foresight report, it appears that the insights which the European Commission has invested the last five years in building up are being ignored.

Last year’s foresight communication was titled “Sustainability and people’s wellbeing at the heart of Europe’s Open Strategic Autonomy”. 

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The 21-page document names “sustainable” or “sustainability” no fewer than 80 times. Of its 10 priority areas for action, six are actions about delivering a sustainable transition – through a net-zero economy, shifts in production and consumption, financial flows, public budgets, indicators, and by making sure all Europeans can contribute to the transition.

The draft five-year agenda relegates resilience, a goal for which the current Commission mobilised €648 billion, to one narrow reference in relation to resource-use. Climate is mentioned only two times – once in connection to innovation, and once in the bullet point: “Prepare for the new realities stemming from climate change”. 

Neither decarbonisation nor net-zero were worthy of mention by heads of state, despite the binding goal of a net-zero Europe by 2050.

In other words, key priorities from the EU’s official unit for future-preparedness are largely missing from guidance issued by EU heads of state.

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And whilst the leaked Strategic Agenda overlooks key aspects of the EU’s own research and evidence, neither is it informed by public opinion.

Recent EU Barometer polls tell us 85% of EU citizens think climate action leads to greater wellbeing and more jobs, 78% think climate action will help the economy, and 83% agree that the EU should invest massively in renewable energies. (The EU Barometers are another rich source of evidence – this one focused on public attitudes and citizens’ support for policies – which EU leaders appear to be opting to disregard.)

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We need a foresight-based strategy for Europe

Aligning the EU priorities 2024-2029 with foresight and public opinion is crucial, and still possible. The key areas of action flowing from the foresight reports can complete the draft Strategic Agenda with missing elements, primarily sustainability.

Uncertainty and “polycrisis” call for more use of foresight methods, not less, for example via a “chief foresighter” at EU level to embed the practice across policy areas and institutions. 

Being guided by the wealth of evidence available is the best way for the EU to set an agenda for a secure, prosperous, sustainable future.

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Elizabeth Dirth is Managing Director at the ZOE Institute for Future-fit Economies, and Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen is Director and Futurist at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.

Contact us at view@euronews.com to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

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Senior Chinese official calls for 'resolutely' cracking down on 'Taiwan independence' separatists

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Senior Chinese official calls for 'resolutely' cracking down on 'Taiwan independence' separatists
A senior Chinese official has called for “resolutely” cracking down on “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and opposing interference by external forces this year to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, state agency Xinhua reported Tuesday.
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Japan’s ‘Iron Lady’ thanks Trump as party secures historic supermajority

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Japan’s ‘Iron Lady’ thanks Trump as party secures historic supermajority

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a sweeping win in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, capturing about 316 seats in the 465-member lower house and achieving a governing supermajority alongside allies. The result gives her a strong mandate to advance a conservative agenda focused on defense, immigration and economic reforms, the Associated Press reported.

A heavy metal fan and drummer, Takaichi — who has long cited former British PM Margaret Thatcher as a personal and political inspiration — expressed gratitude for President Trump’s support, thanking him for his congratulatory message following the victory and signaling continued alignment with Washington.

Trump praised her leadership in a post after the results were announced. “Congratulations to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Coalition on a LANDSLIDE Victory in today’s very important Vote,” Trump wrote on social media, “Sanae’s bold and wise decision to call for an election paid off big time. Her Party now runs the Legislature, holding a HISTORIC TWO THIRDS SUPERMAJORITY — The first time since World War II. Sanae: It was my Honor to Endorse you and your Coalition. I wish you Great Success in passing your Conservative, Peace Through Strength Agenda. The wonderful people of Japan, who voted with such enthusiasm, will always have my strong support.”

SANAE TAKAICHI BECOMES JAPAN’S FIRST FEMALE PRIME MINISTER, CITING THATCHER INSPIRATION

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President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrive to speak to troops aboard USS George Washington at Fleet Activities Yokosuka on Oct. 28, 2025 in Yokosuka, Japan.  (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

The election outcome represents one of the strongest performances for the ruling party in years and solidifies Takaichi’s position only months after taking office as Japan’s first female prime minister.

Following the results, Takaichi said she was prepared to move forward with policies aimed at making Japan “strong and prosperous,” as she seeks to implement reforms and bolster national security, the Associated Press reported.

Her agenda includes boosting defense spending, revising security policies and stimulating economic growth, while maintaining a tougher posture toward regional threats such as China. Known for her hawkish stance on Beijing, Takaichi is expected to maintain Japan’s close alignment with the United States.

“Takaichi’s landslide win shows other leaders that defiance of China can be popular with voters. Nobody has to appease or please Xi Jinping anymore,” Asia analyst Gordon Chang told Fox News Digital.

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JAPAN’S PRIME MINISTER TAKAICHI PLANS TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT AND CALL EARLY ELECTION TO STRENGTHEN COALITION

Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister, is seen playing drums in Tokyo on Sept. 24, 2021, when she was the internal affairs minister. (Kyodo via Reuters)

U.S. officials also welcomed the outcome. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described aid on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo” that Takaichi is a strong ally and emphasized that her leadership strengthens the strategic partnership between Washington and Tokyo.

Takaichi’s victory is widely seen as a geopolitical signal as well as a domestic political triumph. Analysts say the strengthened mandate could deepen cooperation with the United States on security and economic policy at a time of rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

The snap election, called just months into her premiership, was widely viewed as a referendum on her leadership. With the opposition fragmented, voters delivered a decisive result that now gives Takaichi political space to pursue her agenda through the remainder of the parliamentary term.

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Lawmakers applaud Sanae Takaichi during a lower house session in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025, after she was elected Japan’s first female prime minister. (Eugene Hoshiko/AP Photo)

Takaichi backs strengthening Japan’s defense posture and supports constitutional revision to expand the role of the military. Economically, she has praised the stimulus-driven policies associated with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Her public thanks to Trump underscores how central the U.S. alliance remains to Tokyo’s strategy moving forward, experts say, as she prepares to translate electoral momentum into legislative and security action at home and abroad.

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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‘We’re in darkness’: Humanitarian crisis deepens as S Sudan violence surges

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‘We’re in darkness’: Humanitarian crisis deepens as S Sudan violence surges

Humanitarian operations have been impeded by attacks, looting and restrictions on movement.

Ajok Ding Duot crouches on the dusty floor of a displacement camp in South Sudan’s Lakes state, cracking nuts open one by one.

She and her family of 10 arrived here about two weeks ago, fleeing intensifying fighting between government and opposition forces in neighbouring Jonglei state.

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While they have found temporary shelter, Duot said there was hardly anything to eat at the camp. To survive, they rely on these nuts and wild fruits.

“We don’t know anything about what the government is doing. They’re fighting, but we don’t know what the problem is,” she told Al Jazeera.

“We’re in darkness. It’s only ever the humanitarian organisations who help.”

South Sudan has seen renewed fighting in recent weeks between government soldiers and fighters loyal to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO).

The United Nations says an estimated 280,000 people have been displaced by the fighting and air attacks since late December, including more than 235,000 across Jonglei alone.

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The UN’s children agency UNICEF also warned last week that more than 450,000 children are at risk of acute malnutrition due to mass displacement and the halting of critical medical services in Jonglei.

Nearly 10 million people need life-saving humanitarian assistance across South Sudan, a country still reeling from a ruinous civil war that killed nearly 400,000 people and displaced millions between 2013 and 2018.

Humanitarian operations, however, have been crippled by attacks and looting, with observers saying both sides in the conflict have prevented assistance from reaching areas where they believe civilians support their opponents.

The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) suspended its activities last week in Baliet county, in Upper Nile state, following repeated attacks on a convoy carrying humanitarian assistance.

The WFP said the suspension would remain in place until the safety of its staff could be guaranteed and authorities take immediate action to recover the stolen supplies.

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Separately, medical humanitarian NGO Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, said last week a hospital in Jonglei was hit by a government air attack, marking the 10th attack in 12 months on an MSF-run medical facility in the country.

In addition, the MSF health facility in Pieri, also in Jonglei, was looted by unknown assailants, forcing staff to flee. The organisation said the violence had left some 250,000 people without healthcare, as the NGO had been the only medical provider in the area.

MSF said the targeted attacks on its facilities have forced the closure of two hospitals in the Greater Upper Nile and the suspension of general healthcare activities in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Central Equatoria states.

On Sunday, UN chief Antonio Guterres “strongly” condemned the escalating violence in the country and warned that civilians continue to bear the brunt of the conflict.

In a statement, the secretary-general called on all parties “to immediately and decisively halt all military operations, de-escalate tensions through dialogue, uphold international law, protect civilians, and ensure safe and sustained humanitarian access and the security of aid workers and United Nations peacekeeping personnel and their assets”.

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