Europe hopes to use diplomacy to avoid the threat of all-out war in the Middle East, amid fears that the conflict between Israel and Iran could engulf the wider region.

On Friday, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, together with the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, will hold talks with representatives of the Tehran regime in Geneva.

The meeting aims to de-escalate the fighting between the two Middle Eastern powers, which began when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran and killed some of its top military commanders last Friday.

The Europeans seek to initiate a form of shuttle diplomacy between Israel, Iran, Washington and the main European capitals.

They would like to reestablish a security dialogue with Tehran, similar to the one interrupted in 2018 when the first Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The JCPA, which was signed by Iran along with China, the EU, France, Germany, Russia and the UK in 2015, stipulated an easing of Western sanctions against the Middle Eastern country in exchange for Tehran’s commitment to a drastic reduction of Uranium stockpiles and centrifuges at its nuclear facilities.

Such sites are now being targeted by Israeli missile attacks, including those at Natanz and Isfahan.  

Europe’s lost illusions?

In 2018, despite the UN nuclear agency saying that Tehran was progressively adopting the restrictions required by the agreement, Trump’s administration withdrew from the JCPOA, effectively rendering it null and void.

By walking back on the JCPOA, the US put an end to one of the main achievements of European foreign policy.

David Rigoulet-Roze, an author and associate research fellow at IRIS, a French foreign policy institute, said the cancellation of the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015 was a hasty act.

“The agreement had the merit, despite all its imperfections, of existing, of serving as a basis, including for the possible subsequent renegotiation of something more binding”, said Rigoulet-Roze. “Even though, the Europeans were not in control of the process”.

Trade and power miscalculations

The accord represented an opportunity for the EU to reopen trade relations with Iran after decades of US and Western sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

However, after the JCPOA’s demise, the regime in Tehran stigmatised the EU for the failure of the agreement.

“Somewhat wrongly, because we obviously didn’t provoke the cancellation of the accord and we have also suffered the consequences of what is known as the extraterritoriality of American law”, Rigoulet-Roze said.

He noted the capacity of the US to impose sanctions on a global scale, particularly secondary sanctions, “which are formidable and which have obviously curbed Europe’s desire to develop trade relations that were authorised after 2015”.

Iran has been a party to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty since the time of Shah Reza Pahlavi, who was the original founder of Iran’s nuclear programme. Therefore, Tehran has been obliged to open up its sites for inspection by UN agencies.

This motivated Brussels to treat Iran as a potentially rational actor despite its puzzling decisions and smoke and mirrors regarding its nuclear programme.

Years ago, Tehran ended its highly enriched uranium production, yet it continued developing its military conventional ballistic capabilities and financing Middle Eastern proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

“This was a kind of matter of national pride as far as the Iranians were concerned. So I don’t think that they, and this is in retrospect, ever planned to negotiate it away,” senior British diplomat and adviser Robert Cooper told Euronews.

A strategic nuclear force, Cooper explained, “was going to mark them out as one of the most important powers in the Middle East. And as an international power beyond the Middle East as well.” 

The Iranian nuclear programme and the existence of uranium enrichment equipment and heavy water facilities were officially made public by then-president Mohammad Khatami, a reformist who persuaded France, Germany and the UK to reach a deal that was meant to oblige Tehran to stop the uranium enrichment.

Javier Solana, the EU foreign and security policy chief at the time, attended the negotiations in Tehran. The Spanish diplomat was one of the deal’s key architects, who believed that a deal is better than any conflict, and that the EU is best poised to broker it.

“Solana was fascinated by Iran, and you know, we had a certain admiration for it. Our aim at the time was to persuade the Iranians that a military nuclear programme would make them a target,” Cooper recalled.