US fears Putin may lean on nuclear threats if Russia continues to fail in Ukraine

U.S. intelligence officers imagine Vladimir Putin could threaten to unleash Russia’s nuclear arsenal if Ukrainian protection forces proceed to thwart his invasion of their nation.

Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the U.S. Protection Intelligence Company, revealed the issues in a brand new report on international threats dated March 15 and obtained by Fox Information Thursday.

“As this conflict and its penalties slowly weaken Russian typical energy, Russia doubtless will more and more depend on its nuclear deterrent to sign the West and venture energy to its inside and exterior audiences,” he wrote.

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He discovered that Moscow’s latest changes to its nuclear readiness “are doubtless meant to intimidate,” and that the Kremlin may threaten the usage of “tactical, non-strategic nuclear weapons” to scare an adversary into backing down from battle by an settlement that may be drafted in Russia’s favor.

Berrier additionally famous that Putin could be more likely to threaten use of his nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to 3rd events.

Such a stance is obvious in how U.S. and NATO leaders have refused requests from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to impose a no-fly zone over his nation that may put Western militaries in direct battle with Russian jets.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a gathering of the Supreme Eurasian Financial Council in Yerevan, Armenia.
(Shutterstock)

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U.S. officers imagine Putin intends to “overturn the U.S.-led guidelines primarily based post-Chilly Battle worldwide order” and reclaim former Soviet territories.

“Russia views a strong, survivable nuclear power as the muse of its nationwide safety, and its modernized common functions forces as essential to fulfill any typical army menace and venture Russian energy overseas,” Berrier wrote.

He famous that Russia spent that final 12 months publicly accusing NATO of more and more “encroaching on its borders” and finds the prospect of a Western-aligned Ukraine “unacceptable” and a “main political-military disaster.”

Nonetheless, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has stalled after three weeks, with Ukrainian protection forces outperforming the expectations of Russian army intelligence, in keeping with Western analysts.

The UK’s Ministry of Protection on Thursday described the Russian invasion as “faltering” because of sloppy logistics and poor planning.

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“Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert giant numbers of troops to defend their very own provide traces,” the ministry mentioned in a press release. “That is severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential.”

Consequently, Russian forces are more and more utilizing “indiscriminate strategies” of assault – long-range artillery and missiles — which might be leveling cities, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure in retaliation for Ukraine’s efficient resistance, in keeping with the report.

The DIA additionally known as into query Putin’s credibility on his claims to have “modernized” the Russian army.

Rescuers work at a web site of buildings broken by a shelling, as Russia’s assault on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on this handout image launched March 17, 2022.  
(Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Handout by way of REUTERS )

“Russia’s modernization is meant to make sure Russia can discipline a army able to partaking within the full spectrum of warfare to discourage or defeat a large scope of threats, however preliminary setbacks in Ukraine name a few of Putin’s narrative into query,” Berrier wrote.

On the identical time, Russia claims it has up to date greater than 85% of its nuclear weapons and is engaged on growing missiles which might be able to circumventing Western defenses in an effort to “be certain that Russia can credibly inflict unacceptable harm on the West.”

Putin usually brags about his nation’s growth of fifth-generation fighter jets, in keeping with the report.

“Russia continues to enhance capabilities for its Floor Forces, Airborne Forces, and coastal troops. It’s upgrading predominant battle tanks (MBTs) and introducing new MBTs, artillery, and a number of rocket launchers to its arsenal. Russia has additionally steadily elevated its variety of battalion tactical teams (BTGs)—the Floor Drive’s main maneuver component,” Berrier wrote. “In 2021, Russia’s Protection Minister claimed its power construction may generate 168 BTGs, which is a 75 p.c enhance from the 96 BTGs it claimed it may generate in 2016.”

Inside the subsequent decade, he warned, Russia may additionally discipline next-generation nuclear weapons together with a brand new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, “a transoceanic torpedo” and a brand new intercontinental cruise missile.

And Russia, which has a blended file on adhering to arms management treaties, doubtless has a secret stash of chemical weapons, in keeping with the report.

“Russia nearly actually maintains organic and chemical weapon packages,” Berrier wrote. “The USA Authorities asserts that Russia just isn’t in compliance with its obligations beneath the Chemical Weapons Conference (CWC), partially due to its use of a nerve agent—known as Novichok—within the tried assassination of former Russian Most important Intelligence Directorate (GRU) intelligence officer Sergey Skripal and his daughter in March 2018.”

Then in August 2020, Russian agent poisoned Kremlin opposition chief Alexei Navalny with the identical substance. He survived — however is at present imprisoned.