SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Tropical Storm Rafael chugged toward the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane en route to Cuba.

The storm was located 105 miles (170 kilometers) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, early Tuesday. It had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph) and was moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

“Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the center said.

The storm is expected to move near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas and the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as Dry Tortugas.

“The storm is currently situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive for strengthening,” the hurricane center said.

Rafael is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, with officials closing schools and government offices as they urged residents to prepare. Jamaica also closed down as a precaution, with the storm’s outer winds battering the island late Monday.

Rafael was forecast to approach Cuba on Wednesday. Cuban authorities said Monday night that some 37,000 people are under evacuation orders in far eastern Cuba, in the province of Guantanamo, due to bad weather.

The island is still struggling to recover from Hurricane Oscar, which battered the island about two weeks ago after making landfall in the eastern part of Cuba, killing at least six people. The storm also coincided with a large-scale blackout on the island.

Forecasters warned Rafael would unleash heavy rains across the western Caribbean that could lead to flooding and mudslides, with totals of 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 centimeters) and up to 10 inches (25 cm) expected locally in Jamaica and parts of Cuba.

Heavy rainfall also was expected to spread north into Florida and nearby areas of the southeast U.S. during the middle to late part of the week. A few tornadoes also were expected Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season was likely to be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

MEPs have approved Luxembourg’s Christophe Hansen as the next EU agriculture and food Commissioner, three Parliament sources present at a closed-door meeting confirmed to Euronews, following an open hearing that saw the nominee pledge to defend the CAP budget.

The informal vote by the MEPs on Hansen’s performance followed a more than three-hour hearing on Monday evening (4 November), with group leaders from the Christian democrats, socialists, conservatives, greens and liberals all voting in favour of his confirmation.

The vote was not unanimous, however, as two members of the right-wing Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group and one from The Left voted against, and another from the right-wing Patriots for Europe abstained.

Parliament’s procedure is that, after the public hearings, the chairs and coordinators of the various committees responsible for the evaluation assess and vote behind close doors on the candidate’s suitability for the role of Commissioner.  

Hansen cosied to the farming community throughout his open hearing, saying it had taken to the streets earlier this year because it felt unheard. He vowed to be a “boots-on-the-ground” Commissioner, committed to visiting farms across different member states.

The Luxembourgish also recalled his upbringing on a family farm emphasising his first-hand experience with both the rewards and challenges of farming. “I know the good times and the bad times of farming life,” he said, reflecting on how his family struggled with bureaucracy that kept them from focusing on farm work.

The hearing’s most intense moment came when Hansen discussed the mental health challenges facing farmers, drawing on the memory of his late brother, who died following an accident last year.

Voice cracking, Hansen linked the accident to the stress and pressures faced by rural communities, including financial strain and long working hours.

Mercosur’ slippery slope

While Hansen’s promises resonated with many MEPs, his support for the Mercosur agreement drew criticism in the European Parliament’s agriculture committee where the hearing was held—and which vigorously opposes the trade deal.

Hansen said he would adopt a “balanced approach” to the issue, acknowledging the agreement’s benefits but also its challenges.

He advocated for fair reciprocity in trade, claiming that European farmers face disadvantages due to stricter EU production standards compared to those in third countries.

Staunch defender of the CAP

Hansen won approval with his strong defence of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget, especially its income support for European farmers.

He pushed back against recent speculation of budget restructuring proposals suggesting merger of the CAP with other EU programs, arguing that the bloc’s farming subsidies programme required its own dedicated budget.

The Luxembourgish added that budget cuts for farmers would be disastrous, especially in light of recent challenges, such as severe weather events across Europe.

On this, he acknowledged that EU leaders and their ministers would play significant roles in shaping the CAP’s future budget and scope.

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“I do not have the crystal ball but we need to put pressure on our national governments if we want a strong CAP that is not amputated from several parts,” he said.

He was tepid on proposals for an Agri-food Just Transition Fund, a one-off investment support aimed at helping farmers adopt more sustainable practices, arguing that existing resources should be fully utilised before creating new funds.

Hansen stressed the CAP’s importance not just for farmers but for all Europeans. However, he supported the reform of the CAP to better target financial aid, ensuring it goes to active farmers and those most in need.

He was also open to mandatory capping of subsidies, ensuring that more than 10% of aid reaches small farmers. “It is unacceptable that billionaires receive subsidies while those in need see minimal increases,” he said, urging more equitable distribution.

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Next Steps

With the backing of MEPs, Hansen can now turn his focus to producing a policy paper on the future of EU agriculture and food policy within 100 days of taking office.

He described this as a “shared roadmap for future initiatives”, reflecting diverse perspectives across the agri-food sector.