WASHINGTON (AP) — In the next five years, the Earth is overwhelmingly likely to surge again and again past the international climate threshold set as safe and shatter its hottest-year record along the way, according to new United Nations climate projections.

The World Meteorological Organization also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon, a crucial part of Earth’s natural defenses to lessen human-caused climate change. A hotter globe from the burning of coal, oil and gas means more extreme weather including floods, droughts and heat waves, scientists said.

The projections by the U.N. climate agency and the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office said there’s a 75% chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. That threshold is the agreed-upon limit of warming — averaged over 20 years — set in 2015 by the Paris climate agreement.

A U.N. science report a few years later detailed how exceeding that 1.5 mark means more likely death, danger and species loss. Even though it’s only a few tenths of a degree, some of the planet’s ecosystems, such as coral and glaciers, can’t handle the strain.

Passing warming limit has consequences, but no cliff

There’s a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will shoot past the 1.5 degree threshold and an 86% chance that one of those years will smash the record for Earth’s hottest year set in 2024, the WMO report said. The WMO projects each year between now and 2030 to be between 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) and 1.9 degrees Celsius (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s.

“It’s important to note that (1.5) is not kind of a cliff edge that we’re going to fall off,” said report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the U.K. Meteorological Office. “Every kind of 0.1 of a degree has more and more severe impact.”

She pointed to unprecedented May heat in Europe this week.

An entire year or more above the 1.5 degree mark “means a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot/wet/dry that it exceeds anything we’ve experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto, who wasn’t part of the report, said in an email. “This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires.”

Nearly all the shorter-term forecasts call for a strong El Nino — a natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide and spikes global temperatures — to form soon. The WMO report said it could stretch all the way to 2028. Because of that, Seabrook said 2027 will likely break the 2024 heat record.

And if the next five years do average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, that means Earth will have warmed a quarter of a degree Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) in a decade, which is faster than the previous rates of warming. Those were closer to two-tenths of a degree Celsius per decade.

Climate scientists are debating whether global warming is accelerating, “which obviously is quite scary,” and if these projections come true it would give additional evidence to those who see a speeded up rate of change, Seabrook said.

Accelerating warmth forecast in the Arctic

The projections, based on the averaging of about 200 runs of computer simulations using 13 different climate models from various countries, show warming in the Arctic rising 3.5 times faster than the rest of the globe, because there’s less ice and snow that had been reflecting solar radiation to space, Seabrook said. It becomes a vicious cycle.

“As the temperature warms, more sea ice melts, the worse this makes it,” Seabrook said.

Winters in the Arctic from 2020 to 2025 on average were 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1991-2020 average. The WMO projects the next five winters will average 5.1 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 degrees Celsius) warmer than that recent normal, Seabrook said.

The report also forecasts Arctic sea ice to continue to shrink in the summer.

Amazon may get drier, sparking fire worries

The report calls for even warmer and unusually dry conditions in the Amazon basin, and that could be devastating for both local residents and the planet as a whole, Seabrook said.

People rely on the Amazon for water and the hotter, drier conditions should increase wildfire risk, Seabrook said, threatening to turn the Amazon, which now sucks heat-trapping carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, into a region that worsens the problem.

Africa’s Sahel area, which has been extra dry, is likely to get more than normal rain and that could lead to flooding, Seabrook said.

United Nations officials said efforts to curb climate change haven’t been enough.

“Despite the progress of recent years, it’s clear that global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it, and the baking temperatures in Europe, India and elsewhere show yet again the brutal human and economic impacts of humanity still burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said about the WMO report.

“Whether it’s extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, massive wildfires or droughts hitting food supply and prices,” he said, “every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.”

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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

A speeding passenger train tore into a minibus packed with children in Belgium on Tuesday, crushing the vehicle and killing four people — including two children — and leaving five other children critically injured.

The violent collision happened during the morning rush near the town of Buggenhout, about 20 miles northwest of Brussels, in what officials described as one of the country’s worst rail accidents in recent history.

Authorities said the minibus appeared to drive through a closed railway crossing barrier moments before it was struck by the train, which was traveling at about 75 mph. Security camera footage showed the bus moving across the tracks before impact.

A total of nine people were aboard the bus. The bus driver, an escort and two children ages 12 and 15 were killed, according to the East Flanders public prosecutor’s office. The five surviving children were hospitalized with serious injuries.

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“What we do know is that the barrier was closed and the red light was on,” spokesperson Lisa De Wilde told reporters, adding that investigators are still working to determine the exact cause of the crash.

The driver appeared to have plowed through the crossing barrier, Federal Police spokesperson An Berger said. Belgian rail operator Infrabel said the crossing system was functioning properly at the time of the crash.

“The impact was extremely violent,” Infrabel spokesperson Frédéric Sacré told Belgian broadcaster RTBF, adding that the train operator had “no time to brake” before the collision.

DRIVER, VICTIMS IDENTIFIED IN ILLINOIS AFTER-SCHOOL CAMP CRASH THAT LEFT 4 DEAD, INCLUDING CHILDREN

An Associated Press journalist at the scene reported that the minibus was overturned with its front end completely crushed, while the train itself suffered relatively minor damage.

Officials said roughly 100 passengers were aboard the train, though no injuries were reported among them. Rail traffic in the area was suspended as emergency crews responded.

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Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said he was “deeply moved by the horrific accident in Buggenhout,” offering condolences to the victims’ families in a social media post.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Hello readers. Angela Skujins writing this newsletter from a sizzling Brussels, where, as one Belgian climate policy expert pointed out, is a city that now comes equipped with a roasting roundabout that can satisfy your culinary needs. Mared Jones will be picking up a hopefully cooler pen for you on Friday.

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Much to offer in this newsletter today, from energy to Hungary to Europe’s envoy.

Cooking with gas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the war in the Middle East has sparked the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced. This comes as the European Union weighs measures to tackle yet another shock following soaring gas prices from Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but this time pushing prices higher.

Our chief Europe editor Maria Tadeo sat down with the agency’s executive director Fatih Birol in an exclusive interview from Paris, where they discussed the outlook for Europe and the risks ahead. On the future, Birol warned: “The world is becoming more and more a dangerous place.”

“Our motto is very clear – no fear, no favour. We look at the data, we give a wake-up call to the countries.”

The IEA says in a report released today that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – pushing up prices of gas and oil – is also prompting countries to diversify their energy mix. This spans both fossil fuels to renewables, both within Europe and beyond. This review will have “major implications” for investment, Birol said.

“I very much hope that very soon we get a full and unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz. If it doesn’t happen, the problem with the jet fuel and diesel and beyond will be with us for weeks to come,” he said. You can watch the full interview tonight on Euronews.

The Budapest blunder. Much of the Brussels press corps was left dazed and confused yesterday as rumours circulated that the Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar would meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today.

After a torrent of questions, and various senior EU spokespeople saying the meeting was not on the cards, Magyar put the rumours to bed by clarifying he would meet von der Leyen on Friday. “Everyone is working” on bringing back the EU funds, a triumphant Facebook post by the prime minister announced late yesterday afternoon.

The bilateral is expected to focus on finalising the release of €10 billion in recovery funds. A central campaign pledge of Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party, which won a landslide election in May, was recovering EU cash frozen over rule of law and anti-corruption concerns under former prime minister Viktor Orbán. The money will be forfeited if the new government fails to secure the funds by the August deadline.

Euronews’ Sándor Zsíros asked the European Commission about the visit and correspondence between von der Leyen and Magyar on Tuesday.

Chief spokesperson Paula Pinhosaid she could not provide an update, while her colleague Maciej Berestecki clarified there had been good progress on talks to release the frozen cash but “some questions need to be clarified”. The overall aim, though, is to develop a plan to release the funds by the beginning of June at the latest, he added. Sándor gets into the weeds of what Magyar’s meeting with von der Leyen really means.

Despite the on-again-off-again catch-up, Magyar will meet NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the military alliance’s HQ in Zaventem today and give a press conference at 2:30pm. The thrust of the meeting, as well as topics discussed, is still under wraps, as NATO’s press service responded to Euronews’ question for comments by sending us to the event’s landing page.

But we do have some answers. European Commissioner for Democracy, Justice and Rule of Law Michael McGrath just told Europe Today that there has been a “good start” resetting relations between Budapest and Brussels, while hinting there’s more work to be done. “We are there as a Commission to work with them on restoring rule of law and respecting fundamental rights of its citizens,” he said.

When pressed about the confusion regarding choreography, McGrath clarified, “These meetings are quite often not nailed down”. Watch.

Finding Europe’s Russia whisperer. Meanwhile, in Lemesos, Cyprus, foreign ministers have gathered for an informal meeting. High Representative Kaja Kallas will strive to bring ministers closer towards a common position on whether, how and when to engage diplomatically with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

The idea of direct talks with Russia has been added and removed from the agenda since at least January. Momentum soared earlier this month after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Europeans to speak with “one common voice” and designate a special envoy. His plea sent the buzz into overdrive, with various names, such as Alexander Stubb, Mario Draghi and Angela Merkel, casually floated for the high-stakes job.

However, Russia’s large-scale strikes against Ukraine over the weekend and its subsequent message urging foreign citizens and diplomats to leave Kyiv “as soon as possible”, widely interpreted as a direct threat, have drastically upended the conversation.

Those who were reluctant to engage with Russia before, such as Germany, the Netherlands, the Baltics and the Nordics, have less incentive to do it now. Even France, one of the most vocal proponents of direct talks, has admitted the time isn’t right for the diplomatic outreach.

As Jorge Liboreiro and Luca Bertuzzi explain, Thursday’s debate is meant to lay the groundwork for the moment when Russia decides to take the peace process seriously. That, of course, remains a distant prospect, as Moscow’s escalatory rhetoric shows little sign of softening.

On her way into the meeting, Kallas highlighted the dangers of choosing a European envoy. “It’s a trap,” she told a throng of reporters, stating Russia was cherry-picking internally and publicly whom it wanted to benefit its interests. “The substance is much more important than the who.”

Nordic coalition urges EU to stand firm against new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic

A Nordic coalition of financial institutions, trade unions and climate scientists issued a stark warning to the European Commission on Wednesday, calling on European Union leaders to maintain its existing ban on new Arctic oil and gas drilling as the bloc is revising its policy in the region.

In an open letter to five European Commissioners, the group urges Brussels not to soften its stance, fearing the bloc may be reassessing its opposition to Arctic drilling, citing previous media allegations “with concern”.

As Marta Pacheco reports, since 2021, the EU has supported a global ban on new oil and gas drilling as part of its Arctic policy for environmental reasons. But the EU is currently revising its regional strategy in the Arctic, prompting critics of new fossil fuel drilling ventures to speak out.

The letter’s premise lies in both environmental concerns and potential security threats to Europe, given its proximity to Russian territory, where Moscow often boasts nuclear drills.

It argues that the changing geopolitical situation has heightened the security risks in the Barents Sea, with oil and gas infrastructure being potential targets for hybrid warfare due to the proximity to Russian territory and the Northern Sea Route.

“If oil and gas flowing from the Norwegian part of the Arctic becomes crucial for Europe’s energy security, it would make the infrastructure even more attractive as targets for sabotage and make the EU vulnerable to such attacks,” reads the letter backed by 127 signatories, mostly hailing from the Northern hemisphere.

Europe is the ‘last evangelist’ of a trade order that’s no longer respected – France’s Haddad

Europe should use “all the tools” it can leverage to “defend its interests” and tackle aggressive foreign trade practices that threaten its industry, France’s EU Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad has told Euronews. His comments come as the EU mulls a clampdown on a glut of Chinese imports.

“A commitment to international trade law – it’s important. But you have to be strong and to be respected,” Haddad said on Euronews’ interview programme, 12 Minutes With. ​

“You have to be able to defend your interest and use all the tools that you can leverage, especially to impose the very basic principles of fairness and reciprocity.”

Asked by Mared Jones if Europe had been too slow in its response to the eroding of international trade rules, Haddad said, “Yes, I think so, because I think that we (Europeans) are still sometimes the last evangelists of a religion that no one is practising anymore.

“You know, the religion of unfettered free trade of the WTO (World Trade Organisation), which clearly China and the US have abandoned a long time ago.” Watch.

More from our newsrooms

Zelenskyy sent letter asking Trump for Patriot air defence munitions, adviser confirms

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged the United States to provide more ammunition for its Patriot air defence systems to counter Russian ballistic missiles, according to a document reviewed by the AFP news agency on Wednesday. Gavin Blackburn has more.

EU Commission chief eyes new AI envoy, but the role is still to be fully defined

The European Commission might soon appoint an AI envoy – but what the job would actually entail remains undefined. The idea was floated last week by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a meeting with Europe’s top corporate executives gathered at the European Round Table for Industry. “It seems to be an idea that comes back now and again,” a diplomatic source told Euronews, noting it was not the first time the post had been suggested. Luca Bertuzzi has the latest.

South Africa and Afrikaners reject US claims of humanitarian crisis for white people

The South African government and advocacy groups for the country’s Afrikaner white minority rejected on Wednesday the Trump administration’s position that there’s a humanitarian emergency affecting white people in South Africa. Additional reporting by Gavin Blackburn.

We’re also keeping an eye on

• European Parliament President Roberta Metsola continues her visit to San Francisco.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets the Prime Minister of Bulgaria Rumen Radev.
• European Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy Jessika Roswall meets with the Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

That’s it for today. Jorge Liboreiro and Marta Pacheco contributed to this newsletter.