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Examining NATO: Inside the ‘commitment gap’ as US carries alliance deterrence

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Examining NATO: Inside the ‘commitment gap’ as US carries alliance deterrence

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This is part one of a series examining the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.

As President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending — and orders the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany over the next six to 12 months — a deeper issue is coming into focus: even as allied budgets rise, NATO still depends heavily on American military power to function.

NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, “I told the president… maybe you ought to talk about a tiered relationship with NATO,” Kellogg described conversations with Trump in his first term about the alliance’s future. “…we need to develop a new, for lack of a better term, a new NATO a new defensive alignment with Europe.”

Kellogg, who served as a senior national security official during Trump’s first term, said the alliance has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what he sees as a growing gap between commitments and real capability.

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NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, President Donald Trump and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer pose during the NATO Heads of State and Government summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall/Pool/Reuters)

“You started with 12, and you went to 32, and in the process, I think you diluted the impact,” he argued, calling today’s NATO “a very bloated architecture.”

“They haven’t put the money into defense. Their defense industry and defense forces have atrophied. When you look at the Brits right now, they could barely deploy forces: they have two aircraft carriers, both under maintenance. Their brigades are like one out of six that work. And you just look at the capability, it’s just not there. So I think we need to realize that and say, well, we need something different,” Kellogg, who is the co-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.

But not everyone agrees the alliance is losing relevance.

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“It has never been more relevant,” said John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains central to U.S. national security.

“The reason for that is twofold,” he said. “One, it’s our comparative advantage versus the Chinese and the Russians… they don’t have anything like this.”

“And the second reason… NATO underwrites the security and stability of our most important trade and investment relationship,” he added, referring to economic ties between North America and Europe.

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NATO chiefs of defense hold a meeting in Brussels on Aug. 20, 2025, with screens displaying allied leaders joining remotely to discuss Ukraine. (Fox News)

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Dependence: Design or Weakness?

By around 2010, the United States accounted for roughly 65% to 70% of NATO defense spending, according to analysis provided by Barak Seener from the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.

“They’ve always been dependent on the U.S.,” Kellogg said of the European allies.

“The allies overall rely upon one another for deterrence and defense by design,” Deni said, explaining that alliances exist to “pool their resources” and “aggregate their individual strengths.”

Deni pointed to ground forces as a clear example of what the U.S. gains from the alliance, noting that “there are far more allied mechanized infantry forces on the ground than there are Americans.”

Still, he acknowledged that reliance has at times gone too far.

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“In the past… it was fair to say that the European allies were overly reliant upon the Americans for conventional defense,” he said, pointing to the 2000s.

That, he said, was partly driven by U.S. priorities — as Washington pushed European allies to focus on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq rather than territorial defense.

A Polish Army soldier sits in a tank as a NATO flag flies behind during the NATO Noble Jump VJTF exercises on June 18, 2015, in Zagan, Poland. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Seener describes NATO as “formally collective, but functionally asymmetric,” with the U.S. providing a disproportionate share of “high-end capabilities.”

That asymmetry is most visible in nuclear deterrence.

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Seener said the U.S. provides the overwhelming majority of NATO’s nuclear arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategic bombers — meaning deterrence ultimately relies on the assumption of U.S. retaliation.

A NATO official told Fox News Digital that, “The U.S. nuclear deterrent cannot be replaced, but it is clear that Europe needs to step up. There’s no question. There needs to be a better balance when it comes to our defense and security. Both because we see the vital role the U.S. plays around the world and the resources that it demands, and also because it is only fair.”

“The good news,” the official added, “is that the Allies are doing exactly that. They are stepping up, working together — and with the U.S. — to ensure we collectively have what we need to deter and defend one billion people living across the Euro-Atlantic area.”

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Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters of the U.S. Army 12th Combat Aviation Brigade fly over a Lithuanian Vilkas infantry fighting vehicle during the Allied Spirit 25 military exercise near Hohenfels, Germany, on March 12, 2025.

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The Systems NATO Cannot Replace

Beyond nuclear weapons, the dependence runs through the alliance’s operational backbone.

Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — as well as logistics and command systems — as essential to NATO operations.

“Without U.S. intelligence and surveillance, NATO loses situational awareness and early warning capabilities,” Seener said, adding, “So that means that Russia, for example, can attack Europe. And theoretically, if there’s no NATO and the U.S. is not involved, Europe would not be aware, or it would take it too long to be able to defend itself.”

Kellogg also says that much of Europe’s military capability falls short of top-tier systems.

“For the most part, their equipment, if you had to grade it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re kind of like B players or C players,” he said. “It’s not the first line of work.”

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He pointed to air and missile defense as a key gap, noting that while European countries rely on U.S.-made systems such as Patriot and THAAD, “they don’t have a system that’s comparable.”

Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defense industries “have atrophied,” adding that the United States is also now “relearning that as well.”

TRUMP AFFIRMS US ‘WILL ALWAYS BE THERE FOR NATO,’ WHILE EXPRESSING DOUBTS ABOUT ALLIANCE

President Donald Trump and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda talk during a working lunch at the NATO leaders summit in Watford, Britain, on Dec. 4, 2019. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Deni said the picture today is more mixed.

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“Alliance defense spending has been up… and has spiked far more after 2022,” he said, pointing to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as a turning point.

But he cautioned that capability gains take time, noting that many improvements are still years away from full deployment.

Deni pointed to recent European purchases of U.S. systems as evidence of growing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring the F-35 fighter jet from the U.S.

“You can’t build an F-35 overnight,” he said, adding that many of these improvements will take years to fully materialize.

A NATO official told Fox News Digital the alliance “needs to move further and faster” to meet growing threats, pointing to new capability targets agreed by defense ministers in June 2025.

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Keith Kellogg speaks during the Warsaw Security Forum on Sept. 30, 2025, in Poland. (Marek Antoni Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The official said priorities include air and missile defense, long-range weapons, logistics and large land forces, noting that while details remain classified, plans call for a fivefold increase in air and missile defense, “thousands more” armored vehicles and tanks, and “millions more” artillery shells. NATO also aims to double key enabling capabilities such as logistics, transportation and medical support.

The official added that allies are increasing investments in warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, as well as space and cyber capabilities, while boosting readiness and modernizing command and control.

“These targets are now included in national plans,” the official said, adding that allies must demonstrate how they will meet them through sustained defense spending and capability development.

The NATO official also noted that European allies lead multinational forces across Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. and Canada serve as framework nations in Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing air policing missions and NATO’s KFOR operation in Kosovo.

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A Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft takes off from southern Sweden on April 2, 2011. (AP Photo/Scanpix/Patric Soderstrom, File)

What happens if the U.S. is stretched?

Kellogg’s warning is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends on U.S. presence.

“The one you always have to worry about… is Russia,” Kellogg, who was Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia in 2025, said.

If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could face serious strain — particularly in areas like intelligence and logistics.

For Kellogg, the danger is delay. “We won’t know until it happens,” he said. “And then you won’t be able to respond to it.”

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Deni, however, said the alliance remains a strategic asset — not a liability.

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A NATO military force stands guard outside the World Forum in The Hague ahead of the two-day NATO summit on June 22, 2025. (Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP)

The question, he suggests, is not whether NATO still works. It is whether allies can adapt fast enough to keep it working.

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Cubans Cook With Charcoal and Wood Fires to Survive During Energy Crisis

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Cubans Cook With Charcoal and Wood Fires to Survive During Energy Crisis

On a recent night, Yusimi Castellano crouched over her squat iron stove, arranging charcoal and gently placing the Styrofoam and the plastic she used as kindling over it. She used a cigarette lighter to start a small fire.

Noxious smoke billowed through her 18th floor apartment, eventually sweeping out toward the former military barracks where the Cuban Revolution is said to have begun and the verdant mountains that wrap around Santiago de Cuba, the country’s second-largest city.

Slowly, the charcoal began to glow. She put a grill made of old coat hangers on top and boiled some spaghetti for her family’s dinner.

“I shouldn’t be cooking with charcoal,” said Ms. Castellano, 58, who has asthma and lately has been short of breath and coughing constantly. “But if I don’t cook, I die.”

Ms. Castellano’s crude cooking methods have become the norm across the complex of five 18-story buildings, each with 120 apartments, where she lives and that were once meant to showcase the revolution’s promise when they opened four decades ago.

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Today, some people can’t even afford charcoal, and resort to chopping firewood to cook in their homes.

Life here and across much of Cuba, already difficult because of an economy that has been in shambles for years, has become even worse since the Trump administration mounted its escalating pressure campaign against the country’s communist government.

First, the Trump administration stopped oil deliveries from Venezuela, Cuba’s main benefactor, after U.S. forces in January captured Venezuela’s president.

Then President Trump used the threat of tariffs to cut off foreign fuel shipments almost entirely, including from Mexico, Cuba’s other crucial supplier.

The Cuban government says its oil reserves have run out and that its aging electric grid is becoming increasingly unreliable. The country produces some oil but far from enough to meet its needs.

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Outside Havana, the capital, power outages now last 20 hours a day. The lack of energy has set off an enormous humanitarian crisis that has become deadly.

The main refinery in Santiago has stopped producing liquefied petroleum gas, cooking gas mostly made from Venezuelan and Mexican oil.

Last December, Ms. Castellano picked up a small canister filled with cooking gas from a state store at the bottom of her building. The canisters were supposed to be refilled every month, but by then they were being refilled roughly every other month. Since January, however, no gas has been given out.

Breakfast in Ms. Castellano’s home has become a rarity. With the elevator no longer functioning most of the time, the delivery boy who used to bring bread is unwilling to slog up 18 floors.

But the family has no choice. Five mornings a week, Ms. Castellano’s niece walks Ms. Castellano’s 87-year-old mother, Giorgina, who has dementia, downstairs and to a state-run day program for older people a few blocks away. In the afternoon, the two must trudge back upstairs.

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“The country is being strangled,” said the niece, Yailen Menéndez, 38.

Residents are sleep-deprived. Because nobody knows when the power will come on, people leave lights and fans on. If the electricity kicks on, the sudden glare or cool breeze will wake them so they can do their chores before another outage.

“Night has become day,” said one neighbor of Ms. Castellano’s, who stopped by quickly to drop off a sprig of oregano. “Everybody wakes up when the lights come on to wash, cook — to do everything.”

While many households in Havana still have gas piped into their kitchens, Santiago, like the rest of the country, doesn’t have that type of infrastructure. (Santiago’s population, according to the last census in 2012, was about 431,000, but that was before an enormous wave of migration from Cuba. Many apartments in Ms. Castellano’s complex are empty.)

The city, where a majority of the population is Afro-Cuban, has traditionally been a bedrock of government support, but it’s poorer than Havana, has a less developed private sector and receives fewer remittances from abroad. With less to cushion the crisis, Santiago has been particularly hard hit by the economic collapse.

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Haydee Gómez Suárez, 63, who lives in a different tower from Ms. Castellano’s, sells thin plastic bags for bread for the equivalent of 2 cents each outside privately owned bakeries. But the bakeries’ ovens are electric.

“If there’s no power, there’s no bread,” she said. “And if there’s no bread, I can’t sell a single bag.”

She has lost more than 20 pounds in recent years, she said, and eats just one meal a day.

Water leaks through her damp, dingy apartment. She cooks with cardboard and scraps of wood she finds in mounting piles of trash.

She sluices buckets of water over her kitchen walls, but the smell from her cooking fires clings to her furniture, and soot has darkened her walls.

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It’s a far cry from when the towers opened in 1983. One Cuban magazine described the complex, built with earthquake-resistant technology, as “the future face of the city.”

The buildings were inaugurated on the 30th anniversary of the failed rebel assault on the Moncada military barracks, which the buildings overlook. The attack, staged by Fidel Castro and his small band of rebels on July 26, 1953, was later mythologized as the start of the revolution that toppled a U.S.-aligned dictator.

(Fidel’s brother, Raúl Castro, who also fought in the nearby Sierra Maestra mountains, was indicted last week on murder charges for the downing of two civilian planes 30 years ago that killed four men, including three Americans.)

The apartments in the complex were given to families of the rebel guerrillas and to workers at a new textile plant billed by the government as one of the largest in Latin America. Each building’s name is linked to the rebel campaign.

“It was a projection of a future — a country bounding forward toward development and emancipation,” said Aida Morales, a researcher in the historian’s office in Santiago.

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Asked what the projection is now, she laughed. “We’re an island; you can’t go anywhere but the sea,” Ms. Morales said. “And there’s no one to help us.”

As night fell, Anyerman Quiñones Goicoechea, 40, who lives in the complex and is a building painter for a state-owned company, sat brooding in the dark in a rocking chair. After working for the state for more than 20 years, he feels he has nothing to show for it.

“The system has to fall,” he said. “They have to go. Or change the way they think.”

He blames the blackouts mostly on the regime. “This country prioritized building hotels, not power plants.”

Four floors above him, a couple had a different viewpoint. Antonio Nieto Paneque, 83, and his wife, who did not want to share her full name, ate cold rice and beans she had prepared at 11 p.m. the night before when the power returned.

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Mr. Nieto Paneque said he joined an urban guerrilla group in Santiago as a teenager in 1957, smuggling pistols throughout the city.

“The revolution brought electricity to the countryside,” he said. “We believed peasants had the same right as people in the city.”

His wife pointed to their rice cooker, hot plate, refrigerator and a “very good” pressure cooker, all distributed two decades ago when the government, flush with cheap Venezuelan oil, sought to move Cuban kitchens on to the electric grid.

“We lived normally before Trump took power,” Mr. Nieto Paneque said, an LED headlamp strapped around his forehead. “Our lives were stable.”

In 2019, the first Trump administration began imposing sanctions on companies shipping Venezuelan oil to Cuba, and in response the Cuban government introduced what it said were temporary energy-saving measures. They turned out to be permanent.

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Even before the more recent round of actions by the Trump administration, sanctions had left the Cuban government without enough money to buy the fuel the country needed, some economists say. Trump administration officials have blamed Cuba’s woes on what they call the government’s corruption and incompetence, not the U.S. oil blockade.

Still, while most Cubans now go without cooking gas, electricity and public transportation, the Cuban police and armed forces continue receiving fuel for their vehicles.

Cuba’s Soviet-era electric grid is obsolete, weakened by decades of underinvestment and a lack of maintenance — a result of the island’s failed economic model and sanctions on parts needed to maintain the system.

Halfway up the blacked-out tower where the Castellanos live, the orange glow of a wood fire illuminated the balcony of one of the apartments. Silhouetted figures bent over flames.

In the park below, life went on. A street vendor rapped the metal box keeping warm his roasted peanuts sheathed in paper flutes. Nearby, other vendors sold candies, condoms and candles.

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Yoandris García, 33, another resident of the complex, sat near them, preferring the cooler air to another sleepless night sweating in bed.

He said he lost his job last month when the minibus company he worked for ran out of fuel. The next day, he said matter-of-factly, he planned to walk four miles to cut wood with a machete and haul it home on his shoulder.

Across the avenue, the single streetlight went off. Mr. Garcia said he hoped that meant the electricity might be directed elsewhere, as is sometimes the case.

“Now they’ll put it on over here,” he said, nodding toward the apartment towers. Nothing happened.

For many here, the question of why there is so little electricity is irrelevant. Disillusioned, disempowered and exhausted, many say they no longer care. They are too busy surviving.

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“Those in power know the truth,” said Felo González, 50, a furniture repairer. “Our job is to hustle.”

Adrian Rey Duharte Garcés contributed reporting.

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At least 82 killed after massive gas explosion rips through coal mine in China

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At least 82 killed after massive gas explosion rips through coal mine in China

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At least 82 people were killed and more than 120 others hospitalized after a massive gas explosion ripped through a coal mine in China late Friday, according to the Associated Press (AP). Two people remained missing.

The catastrophic blast at the Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan County, located in China’s northern Shanxi province, marked the country’s deadliest mining disaster in recent years.

Local officials, who have launched an investigation into the incident, said they uncovered “serious violations” by the mine’s operator, Shanxi Tongzhou Coal & Coke Group.

The explosion also triggered a wave of heightened safety inspections across China’s coal sector, tightening the supply outlook for coking coal and sending prices soaring Monday, according to Reuters.

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EARTHQUAKE 50 MILES FROM MOUNT EVEREST LEAVES AT LEAST 95 DEAD IN TIBET

Rescuers work at the site following a gas explosion at Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan county, Shanxi province, China May 23, 2026. (cnsphoto via REUTERS)

According to the AP, the explosion triggered a chaotic scene where thick smoke engulfed the mine and suffocated many victims underground.

One miner lost consciousness, while many others suffered from toxic gas exposure, the outlet added, citing state broadcaster CCTV.

The explosion has reportedly intensified scrutiny from Chinese officials, who said investigators found multiple violations at the site, though details remain unclear.

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8 SKIERS FOUND DEAD, 1 MISSING AFTER MASSIVE LAKE TAHOE AVALANCHE

A deadly gas explosion ripped through the Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan county, Shanxi province, China on May 23, 2026. (China Daily via REUTERS)

In 2024, China’s National Mine Safety Administration had previously classified the mine as disaster-prone due to its “high gas content,” the AP reported.

State media also reported that blueprints provided by the mine did not match the site’s actual layout, complicating rescue operations, the outlet added.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a full-scale effort to rescue those still missing and ordered a thorough investigation to hold those responsible accountable, the AP said, citing official Xinhua News Agency.

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SIBANYE WORKERS BEGIN TO SURFACE AFTER ACCIDENT AT SOUTH AFRICAN GOLD MINE

Following a major gas explosion, rescuers arrive at Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan county, Shanxi province, China May 23, 2026. (cnsphoto via REUTERS)

The state-run outlet later reported that company officials connected to the disaster had been “placed under control,” according to the AP.

China has suffered a string of deadly mining disasters in recent decades even as officials have pledged to strengthen oversight of the sector.

In 2023, at least 53 people were killed in Inner Mongolia following reports of a collapse at an open-pit mine.

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In 2009, a reported explosion at a coal mine in Heilongjiang province left 108 people dead.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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‘One ticket, one journey’: can the EU simplify train travel? Take our poll

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The European Commission has just announced a proposal to simplify train travel for Europeans. Under the ‘One ticket, one journey, full rights’ initiative, travellers will be able to book multi-leg trips with one single ticket and enjoy new rights.

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