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EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?

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EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?
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Since 2022, trade between the EU and Ukraine has been governed by a temporary framework known as Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs). Introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the ATMs eliminated all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU.

This offered a critical lifeline access to European markets for Ukrainian producers, especially for agricultural commodities such as grains, maize, eggs, and poultry, sustaining the country’s wartime economy.

However, the ATM scheme is due to expire on Thursday, and it cannot be renewed, having already been extended once.

Despite efforts since late 2024, the European Commission has failed to secure a permanent or improved replacement, leaving both Ukrainian exporters and EU policymakers scrambling.

This delay has frustrated several EU member states, many of whom had expected the Commission to secure a sustainable agreement with Ukraine ahead of the expiration deadline.

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The political timing didn’t help: the Commission faced considerable pressure to avoid inflaming domestic tensions, particularly in Poland, where farmers have protested against the influx of Ukrainian imports.

With Poland’s presidential elections now behind, Brussels hopes negotiations for a longer-term trade framework can finally move forward.

Tariffs are reinstated

What happens when the tariff-free scheme expires? The most immediate consequence is the reintroduction of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods.

In practical terms, this resets trade conditions between Ukraine and the EU to the situation before Russia’s 2022 invasion, with tariff lines and quotas from the pre-ATM era reinstated.

According to Ukrainian officials, this could cost the country over €3 billion annually in lost export revenue.

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Because the year is nearly half over, quota limits will be applied on a seven-twelfths basis for the remainder of 2025, proportionally reflecting the reduced time window.

The impact will be significant. In 2024, nearly 60% of Ukraine’s total exports went to the EU, up from just over 39% in 2021, before the ATMs came into force.

The free access to EU markets has been a pillar of Ukraine’s economic resilience during wartime, helping to stabilise currency flows and sustain public funding.

This will have consequences for Ukraine’s war effort too

The loss of preferential market access is not merely an economic inconvenience: it could have direct consequences for Ukraine’s ability to fund its war effort.

Vitalii Koval, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and food, highlighted during a recent visit to Brussels that agriculture represents a much larger share of Ukraine’s economy than it does in the EU.

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One in five Ukrainians works in the agricultural sector, and its performance directly influences national revenues.

Ukrainian MP Yevheniia Kravchuk warned that failure to secure even a partial solution could result in a 1% drop in GDP, further straining the country’s wartime finances.

“Ukrainian companies have shifted their markets toward the EU. If exports decrease, tax revenues drop, those same taxes that fund our military,” she told Euronews.

The reintroduction of tariffs is also expected to suppress producer prices, increase market uncertainty and discourage private investment, hampering both recovery and reconstruction efforts in the longer term.

A stopgap while a new deal is negotiated

To avoid a sudden rupture in trade flows, the European Commission has prepared transitional measures to apply after the expiration of the ATMs. These were quietly approved two weeks ago by EU ambassadors as a precautionary step, though full details have yet to be published.

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A European Commission spokesperson described the transitional measures as a “bridge” to allow time for a more comprehensive review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which is the long-term trade agreement underpinning relations before the ATMs.

Crucially, the Commission has stated that future trade will be based on the DCFTA, not an extension of the emergency ATMs.

This marks a clear shift, disappointing Ukrainian hopes of maintaining the same level of market access they enjoyed under the tariff-free regime.

Negotiations toward a revised DCFTA began formally with a meeting in Brussels on Monday afternoon. While details remain scarce, a Commission spokesperson said more clarity is expected “in the coming days”.

Earlier that day, EU ambassadors met to reaffirm the importance of establishing long-term, predictable trade relations with Ukraine, while also ensuring protections for European farmers, a politically sensitive group in several member states.

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“It is an extremely important decision to be taken,” said MP Kravchuk. “When I hear that, since the full-scale invasion, the EU has spent more on Russian gas and oil than on aid to Ukraine—and now we are talking about cutting economic access meaning that Ukraine’s economy in the times of war will be shrinking—then it’s a questionable position, rather than a partnership one.”

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Some flu measures decline, but it’s not clear this severe season has peaked

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Some flu measures decline, but it’s not clear this severe season has peaked

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. flu infections showed signs of a slight decline last week, but health officials say it is not clear that this severe flu season has peaked.

New government data posted Friday — for flu activity through last week — showed declines in medical office visits due to flu-like illness and in the number of states reporting high flu activity.

However, some measures show this season is already surpassing the flu epidemic of last winter, one of the harshest in recent history. And experts believe there is more suffering ahead.

“This is going to be a long, hard flu season,” New York State Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald said, in a statement Friday.

One type of flu virus, called A H3N2, historically has caused the most hospitalizations and deaths in older people. So far this season, that is the type most frequently reported. Even more concerning, more than 91% of the H3N2 infections analyzed were a new version — known as the subclade K variant — that differs from the strain in this year’s flu shots.

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The last flu season saw the highest overall flu hospitalization rate since the H1N1 flu pandemic 15 years ago. And child flu deaths reached 289, the worst recorded for any U.S. flu season this century — including that H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009-2010.

So far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses and 180,000 hospitalizations, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates. It also estimates there have been 7,400 deaths, including the deaths of at least 17 children.

Last week, 44 states reported high flu activity, down slightly from the week before. However, flu deaths and hospitalizations rose.

Determining exactly how flu season is going can be particularly tricky around the holidays. Schools are closed, and many people are traveling. Some people may be less likely to see a doctor, deciding to just suffer at home. Others may be more likely to go.

Also, some seasons see a surge in cases, then a decline, and then a second surge.

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For years, federal health officials joined doctors’ groups in recommending that everyone 6 months and older get an annual influenza vaccine. The shots may not prevent all symptoms but can prevent many infections from becoming severe, experts say.

But federal health officials on Monday announced they will no longer recommend flu vaccinations for U.S. children, saying it is a decision parents and patients should make in consultation with their doctors.

“I can’t begin to express how concerned we are about the future health of the children in this country, who already have been unnecessarily dying from the flu — a vaccine preventable disease,” said Michele Slafkosky, executive director of an advocacy organization called Families Fighting Flu.

“Now, with added confusion for parents and health care providers about childhood vaccines, I fear that flu seasons to come could be even more deadly for our youngest and most vulnerable,” she said in a statement.

Flu is just one of a group of viruses that tend to strike more often in the winter. Hospitalizations from COVID-19 and RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, also have been rising in recent weeks — though were not diagnosed nearly as often as flu infections, according to other federal data.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Russia fires new hypersonic missile in massive Ukraine attack, Kremlin says

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Russia fires new hypersonic missile in massive Ukraine attack, Kremlin says

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Russia said on Friday it used its new hypersonic Oreshnik missile in an attack against Ukraine, according to reports.

The Kremlin said that the strike was carried out in response to what it said was an attempted Ukrainian drone strike on one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residences, something Kyiv has denied, according to Reuters. 

The outlet noted that Ukraine and the U.S. have cast doubt on Russia’s claims about the alleged attempted attack on Putin’s residence on Dec. 29, the report said. Ukraine called it “an absurd lie,” while President Donald Trump also doubted the veracity of the claim, saying he did not believe the strike occurred and that “something” unrelated happened nearby.

This is the second time Russia has used the intermediate-range Oreshnik, which Putin has said is impossible to intercept because of its velocity, Reuters reported.

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RUSSIA ALLEGES ATTACK ON PUTIN RESIDENCE AS UKRAINE DENIES CLAIM AHEAD OF TRUMP TALKS

A part of the Russian nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile system at the site of the Russian missile strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Lviv region, Ukraine, Jan. 9, 2026. (Security Service of Ukraine/Handout via Reuters)

The Russian Defense Ministry said that the strike targeted critical infrastructure in Ukraine, according to Reuters, which added that Russia said the attack also used attack drones and high-precision long-range land and sea-based weapons.

While Moscow did not say where the missile hit, Russian media and military bloggers said it targeted an underground natural gas storage facility in Ukraine’s western Leviv region, CBS News reported. Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadoviy said the attack hit critical infrastructure but did not give details, the outlet added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the attack on social media, saying that the aftermath was “still being dealt with.”

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“Twenty residential buildings alone were damaged. Recovery operations after the strikes also continue in the Lviv region and other regions of our country. Unfortunately, as of now, it is known that four people have been killed in the capital alone. Among them is an ambulance crew member. My condolences to their families and loved ones,” Zelenskyy wrote.

A resident stands on the balcony of his apartment, damaged during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Jan. 9, 2026. (Anatolii Stepanov/Reuters)

PUTIN RESIDENCE ATTACK VIDEO SLAMMED AS US OFFICIALS SAY UKRAINE DID NOT TARGET LEADER

The Ukrainian leader said the attack involved 242 drones, 13 ballistic missiles, one Oreshnik missile and 22 cruise missiles. Zelenskyy added that the ballistic missiles were aimed at energy facilities and civilian infrastructure as the people of Ukraine faced “a significant cold spell.” He said the attack was “aimed precisely against the normal life of ordinary people.” However, he assured that Ukraine was working to restore heating and electricity.

Zelenskyy claimed that in addition to the civilian infrastructure, a building of the Embassy of Qatar was damaged in the attack.

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Apartment buildings hit by a Russian missile strike late yesterday, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the city of in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, on Jan. 9, 2026. (Stringer/Reuters)

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“A clear reaction from the world is needed. Above all from the United States, whose signals Russia truly pays attention to. Russia must receive signals that it is its obligation to focus on diplomacy, and must feel consequences every time it again focuses on killings and the destruction of infrastructure,” Zelenskyy added.

A spokesperson for the State Department told Fox News Digital that the U.S. remains committed to ending the war through diplomatic means, emphasizing that it is the only path toward a durable peace. The spokesperson underscored Trump’s desire to end the war that is approaching its fourth year.

Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment.

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Mercosur: How Macron’s domestic weakness undercut his Brussels clout

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The French president’s failure to assemble a blocking minority against the Mercosur deal underscores how his domestic weakness is undermining his clout in Brussels. By contrast, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Germany have secured an important victory.

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