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EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?

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EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?
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Since 2022, trade between the EU and Ukraine has been governed by a temporary framework known as Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs). Introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the ATMs eliminated all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU.

This offered a critical lifeline access to European markets for Ukrainian producers, especially for agricultural commodities such as grains, maize, eggs, and poultry, sustaining the country’s wartime economy.

However, the ATM scheme is due to expire on Thursday, and it cannot be renewed, having already been extended once.

Despite efforts since late 2024, the European Commission has failed to secure a permanent or improved replacement, leaving both Ukrainian exporters and EU policymakers scrambling.

This delay has frustrated several EU member states, many of whom had expected the Commission to secure a sustainable agreement with Ukraine ahead of the expiration deadline.

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The political timing didn’t help: the Commission faced considerable pressure to avoid inflaming domestic tensions, particularly in Poland, where farmers have protested against the influx of Ukrainian imports.

With Poland’s presidential elections now behind, Brussels hopes negotiations for a longer-term trade framework can finally move forward.

Tariffs are reinstated

What happens when the tariff-free scheme expires? The most immediate consequence is the reintroduction of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods.

In practical terms, this resets trade conditions between Ukraine and the EU to the situation before Russia’s 2022 invasion, with tariff lines and quotas from the pre-ATM era reinstated.

According to Ukrainian officials, this could cost the country over €3 billion annually in lost export revenue.

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Because the year is nearly half over, quota limits will be applied on a seven-twelfths basis for the remainder of 2025, proportionally reflecting the reduced time window.

The impact will be significant. In 2024, nearly 60% of Ukraine’s total exports went to the EU, up from just over 39% in 2021, before the ATMs came into force.

The free access to EU markets has been a pillar of Ukraine’s economic resilience during wartime, helping to stabilise currency flows and sustain public funding.

This will have consequences for Ukraine’s war effort too

The loss of preferential market access is not merely an economic inconvenience: it could have direct consequences for Ukraine’s ability to fund its war effort.

Vitalii Koval, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and food, highlighted during a recent visit to Brussels that agriculture represents a much larger share of Ukraine’s economy than it does in the EU.

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One in five Ukrainians works in the agricultural sector, and its performance directly influences national revenues.

Ukrainian MP Yevheniia Kravchuk warned that failure to secure even a partial solution could result in a 1% drop in GDP, further straining the country’s wartime finances.

“Ukrainian companies have shifted their markets toward the EU. If exports decrease, tax revenues drop, those same taxes that fund our military,” she told Euronews.

The reintroduction of tariffs is also expected to suppress producer prices, increase market uncertainty and discourage private investment, hampering both recovery and reconstruction efforts in the longer term.

A stopgap while a new deal is negotiated

To avoid a sudden rupture in trade flows, the European Commission has prepared transitional measures to apply after the expiration of the ATMs. These were quietly approved two weeks ago by EU ambassadors as a precautionary step, though full details have yet to be published.

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A European Commission spokesperson described the transitional measures as a “bridge” to allow time for a more comprehensive review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which is the long-term trade agreement underpinning relations before the ATMs.

Crucially, the Commission has stated that future trade will be based on the DCFTA, not an extension of the emergency ATMs.

This marks a clear shift, disappointing Ukrainian hopes of maintaining the same level of market access they enjoyed under the tariff-free regime.

Negotiations toward a revised DCFTA began formally with a meeting in Brussels on Monday afternoon. While details remain scarce, a Commission spokesperson said more clarity is expected “in the coming days”.

Earlier that day, EU ambassadors met to reaffirm the importance of establishing long-term, predictable trade relations with Ukraine, while also ensuring protections for European farmers, a politically sensitive group in several member states.

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“It is an extremely important decision to be taken,” said MP Kravchuk. “When I hear that, since the full-scale invasion, the EU has spent more on Russian gas and oil than on aid to Ukraine—and now we are talking about cutting economic access meaning that Ukraine’s economy in the times of war will be shrinking—then it’s a questionable position, rather than a partnership one.”

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Video: Ultra-Orthodox Community Protests Israel’s Military Draft

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Video: Ultra-Orthodox Community Protests Israel’s Military Draft

new video loaded: Ultra-Orthodox Community Protests Israel’s Military Draft

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Ultra-Orthodox Community Protests Israel’s Military Draft

Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews demonstrated against the military draft in Israel.

You can’t force people to be otherwise than the way they are. This is us. This is the way we are. You can’t change us. You can’t force people to do otherwise. It’s no good.

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Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews demonstrated against the military draft in Israel.

By Jorge Mitssunaga

October 30, 2025

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Cruise ship allegedly leaves 80-year-old woman behind on island, daughter demands answers after death

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Cruise ship allegedly leaves 80-year-old woman behind on island, daughter demands answers after death

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The daughter of an 80-year-old woman found dead after allegedly being abandoned by her cruise ship recently called for a coronial inquest into her mother’s death, calling the incident “a failure of care and common sense.”

Suzanne Rees, who was partaking in a luxury 60-day cruise in Australia, was found dead Sunday after she was reported missing Saturday night.

Rees was last seen on a group hiking tour of Lizard Island, about 200 miles north of Cairns, but did not return to the Coral Adventurer cruise ship—which left at about 6 p.m. Saturday.

Witnesses said they heard commotion on the radio and saw the ship returning to the island on a vessel tracker.

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AMY BRADLEY CASE HINGES ON ‘SOMEBODY REMEMBERING’ AS INVESTIGATORS HUNT FOR NEW LEADS 27 YEARS LATER: EXPERT

The daughter of an 80-year-old woman found dead after allegedly being abandoned by her cruise ship on an Australian island is calling for an investigation into her death. (iStock)

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA), Australia’s national maritime safety regulator, told Fox News Digital it was notified about the incident by the vessel at about 10 p.m. local time Saturday, prompting AMSA to initiate a response.

An AMSA spokesperson said they assisted Queensland Police in the search, and are continuing to work closely with Queensland authorities, including Queensland Police and WorkSafe Queensland.

“AMSA will make an assessment as to whether there was any non-compliance associated with the passenger not being counted onto the ship and, if necessary, will take action to address them,” the spokesperson wrote in a statement. “AMSA intends to conduct inquiries on board the vessel when it arrives in Darwin. We are currently investigating the circumstances surrounding why the passenger may not have been accounted for during boarding. AMSA offers its condolences to the family and loved ones of the person who has passed. Our thoughts are with them during this difficult time.”

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TWO VACATIONERS DROWN AT CARNIVAL’S NEW BAHAMAS PRIVATE ISLAND

Hikers on Lizard Island off the coast of Australia

Suzanne Rees was on a luxury 60-day cruise in Australia, when she was left behind on Lizard Island and later found dead, her daughter alleges. (Mark Conlin/VW PICS/UIG )

Rees’ daughter, Katherine, told ABC Australia “from the little we have been told, it seems that there was a failure of care and common sense.”

“We understand from the police that it was a very hot day, and Mum felt ill on the hill climb. She was asked to head down, unescorted,” Katherine told the outlet. “Then the ship left, apparently without doing a passenger count.”

The family reportedly said they are hoping to learn if Rees’ death could have been prevented.

IRISH BIKINI DESIGNER FOUND DEAD ON YACHT MONTHS AFTER DIVORCE AND PRIOR LEGAL DISPUTE

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Lizard Island hikers at lookout

The daughter of an 80-year-old woman found dead after allegedly being abandoned by her cruise ship on Lizard Island in Australia is calling for an investigation into her death. ( Education Images/UIG )

The Coroner’s Court of Queensland on Wednesday confirmed to ABC Rees’ death was “referred to the coroner for investigation.”

Once the coroner’s investigation is complete, a decision will be made about launching an inquest into the death.

AMSA said details surrounding the timing of the vessel’s arrival and AMSA’s next steps are not available, as the investigation remains active.

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“The Coral team have been in contact with the woman’s family, and we will continue to offer support to them through this difficult process,” Coral Expeditions CEO Mark Fifield reportedly wrote in a statement. “While investigations into the incident are continuing, we are deeply sorry that this has occurred and are offering our full support to the woman’s family.”

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The operation of the vessel is regulated under the Australian Navigation Act 2012 and relevant workplace laws, according to AMSA.

Fox News Digital’s Pilar Arias contributed to this report.

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Merz urges deeper ties with Turkey despite disagreements on Gaza

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Merz urges deeper ties with Turkey despite disagreements on Gaza

Europe should forge a deeper strategic partnership with Turkey in response to emerging global challenges, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday on his first official visit to Ankara, which has played a crucial mediating role in the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

Merz was speaking alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, just days after Turkey and the United Kingdom finalised a multi-billion-euro deal for the sale of 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets.

Germany, part of the consortium that manufactures the advanced fighter aircraft, recently lifted its longstanding objection to their export to Turkey.

Merz’s visit also comes amid reports of German backing for Turkey’s participation in a European defence initiative known as the Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a €150 billion programme designed to enhance the continent’s military capabilities.

The initiative allows non-EU countries, including Turkey, to join defence projects.

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Greece openly opposes Turkey’s participation in SAFE, arguing that Ankara must first drop its standing threat of war linked to sea boundary disputes between the two NATO members.

Merz did not mention SAFE but underscored the importance of cooperation.

“Germany and Turkey should use the enormous potential of our relations even better in the coming months and years,” he said.

“There are compelling reasons for this, because we are entering a new geopolitical phase marked by the politics of great powers,” the chancellor said.

“A central conclusion from that for me is that as Germans and Europeans, we must expand our strategic partnerships, and there is no way around a good and deepened partnership with Turkey.”

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Divisions surfaced during the joint news conference over human rights and the situation in Gaza.

The advocacy group, Human Rights Watch, had urged Merz to speak out against Turkey’s crackdown on the opposition, including the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

The opposition figure, widely seen as a potential challenger to Erdoğan, has been held in pretrial detention since March on corruption charges, which he denies. This week, Turkish authorities filed new charges against him for alleged espionage.

Merz avoided direct mention of İmamoğlu but said: “Decisions have been made in Turkey that do not yet meet the requirements regarding the rule of law and democracy as we understand them from the European point of view.”

Erdoğan responded by defending Turkey’s judicial system.

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“No matter what position you hold, if you trample on the law, judicial authorities in a state governed by the rule of law are obliged to take whatever action is necessary,” he said.

On the issue of Gaza, Merz said that Germany has stood firmly by Israel since it was founded in the aftermath of the Holocaust and will always do so. But “that doesn’t mean that we respect or accept every political decision by an Israeli government and accept it without criticism.”

Merz has frequently criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza in recent months.

On Thursday, he stressed that “Israel made use of its right of self-defence and it would have taken only a single decision to avoid the countless unnecessary victims: Hamas should have released the hostages earlier and laid down its weapons. Then this war would have been over immediately.”

Erdoğan, a vocal critic of Israel’s military actions, again accused Israel of using “starvation and genocide” as weapons of war.

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The Turkish leader argued that Hamas does not possess bombs or nuclear weapons, while Israel does, and criticised Germany for allegedly ignoring the imbalance.

“As Germany, can’t you see this?” he asked.

Additional sources • AP

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