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EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?

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EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?
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Since 2022, trade between the EU and Ukraine has been governed by a temporary framework known as Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs). Introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the ATMs eliminated all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU.

This offered a critical lifeline access to European markets for Ukrainian producers, especially for agricultural commodities such as grains, maize, eggs, and poultry, sustaining the country’s wartime economy.

However, the ATM scheme is due to expire on Thursday, and it cannot be renewed, having already been extended once.

Despite efforts since late 2024, the European Commission has failed to secure a permanent or improved replacement, leaving both Ukrainian exporters and EU policymakers scrambling.

This delay has frustrated several EU member states, many of whom had expected the Commission to secure a sustainable agreement with Ukraine ahead of the expiration deadline.

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The political timing didn’t help: the Commission faced considerable pressure to avoid inflaming domestic tensions, particularly in Poland, where farmers have protested against the influx of Ukrainian imports.

With Poland’s presidential elections now behind, Brussels hopes negotiations for a longer-term trade framework can finally move forward.

Tariffs are reinstated

What happens when the tariff-free scheme expires? The most immediate consequence is the reintroduction of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods.

In practical terms, this resets trade conditions between Ukraine and the EU to the situation before Russia’s 2022 invasion, with tariff lines and quotas from the pre-ATM era reinstated.

According to Ukrainian officials, this could cost the country over €3 billion annually in lost export revenue.

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Because the year is nearly half over, quota limits will be applied on a seven-twelfths basis for the remainder of 2025, proportionally reflecting the reduced time window.

The impact will be significant. In 2024, nearly 60% of Ukraine’s total exports went to the EU, up from just over 39% in 2021, before the ATMs came into force.

The free access to EU markets has been a pillar of Ukraine’s economic resilience during wartime, helping to stabilise currency flows and sustain public funding.

This will have consequences for Ukraine’s war effort too

The loss of preferential market access is not merely an economic inconvenience: it could have direct consequences for Ukraine’s ability to fund its war effort.

Vitalii Koval, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and food, highlighted during a recent visit to Brussels that agriculture represents a much larger share of Ukraine’s economy than it does in the EU.

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One in five Ukrainians works in the agricultural sector, and its performance directly influences national revenues.

Ukrainian MP Yevheniia Kravchuk warned that failure to secure even a partial solution could result in a 1% drop in GDP, further straining the country’s wartime finances.

“Ukrainian companies have shifted their markets toward the EU. If exports decrease, tax revenues drop, those same taxes that fund our military,” she told Euronews.

The reintroduction of tariffs is also expected to suppress producer prices, increase market uncertainty and discourage private investment, hampering both recovery and reconstruction efforts in the longer term.

A stopgap while a new deal is negotiated

To avoid a sudden rupture in trade flows, the European Commission has prepared transitional measures to apply after the expiration of the ATMs. These were quietly approved two weeks ago by EU ambassadors as a precautionary step, though full details have yet to be published.

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A European Commission spokesperson described the transitional measures as a “bridge” to allow time for a more comprehensive review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which is the long-term trade agreement underpinning relations before the ATMs.

Crucially, the Commission has stated that future trade will be based on the DCFTA, not an extension of the emergency ATMs.

This marks a clear shift, disappointing Ukrainian hopes of maintaining the same level of market access they enjoyed under the tariff-free regime.

Negotiations toward a revised DCFTA began formally with a meeting in Brussels on Monday afternoon. While details remain scarce, a Commission spokesperson said more clarity is expected “in the coming days”.

Earlier that day, EU ambassadors met to reaffirm the importance of establishing long-term, predictable trade relations with Ukraine, while also ensuring protections for European farmers, a politically sensitive group in several member states.

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“It is an extremely important decision to be taken,” said MP Kravchuk. “When I hear that, since the full-scale invasion, the EU has spent more on Russian gas and oil than on aid to Ukraine—and now we are talking about cutting economic access meaning that Ukraine’s economy in the times of war will be shrinking—then it’s a questionable position, rather than a partnership one.”

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Thousands gather as Bondi Beach reopens, commemorating victims of Hanukkah attack

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Thousands gather as Bondi Beach reopens, commemorating victims of Hanukkah attack

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Thousands of people gathered as Bondi Beach reopened days after a mass shooting targeting Jews at a Hanukkah celebration left 15 dead and dozens injured.

The commemoration began with thousands of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder on the sand before forming an enormous circle in the ocean, signifying solidarity among Sydney’s residents and support for the Jewish community, The Associated Press reported.

Police reopened parts of Bondi Beach on Thursday, just five days after the attack. Additionally, as questions emerge over the Jewish community’s safety as well as fears of backlash against Muslims, armed police officers were stationed outside of synagogues and mosques in Sydney on Friday, according to the AP.

At Bondi Beach, surfers took to the water for a paddle-out, a ceremony commonly held when a surfer dies that involves participants sitting on boards as tributes are made and some splash and cheer. A large crowd gathered for the paddle-out at Bondi as Jews prayed on the beach and others gathered to watch the scene, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

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AUSTRALIA MOVES TO TIGHTEN GUN LAWS AFTER HANUKKAH MASS SHOOTING LEAVES 15 DEAD AT BONDI BEACH

Surfers and swimmers head out to the ocean as a tribute following Sunday’s shooting at Bondi Beach, in Sydney, Friday, Dec. 19, 2025. (Steve Markham, File/AP Photo)

The attack has spurred a sense of unity, particularly as stories about heroes of the day come to light, such as that of Ahmed al Ahmed, a Syria-born Australian Muslim store owner, who tackled and disarmed one of the gunmen. Al Ahmed was shot and wounded by the other assailant.

In a video posted on social media, al Ahmed said Australia is “the best country in the world” before raising his fist and chanting “Aussie, Aussie, Aussie,” according to the AP.

Following the tragedy, Australians showed their unity by setting a national record for blood donations, the AP reported. Nearly 35,000 donations were made and more than 100,000 appointments booked since Monday, according to the AP, which cited Lifeblood, a branch of the Australian Red Cross.

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People visit a floral tribute outside the Bondi Pavilion following Sunday’s shooting at Bondi Beach, in Sydney, Friday, Dec. 19, 2025. (Steve Markham/AP Photo)

ISRAELI KNESSET MEMBER SAYS AUSTRALIAN OFFICIALS ‘DID NOTHING’ AMID RISE OF ANTISEMITISM BEFORE SYDNEY ATTACK

The iconic footbridge at Bondi Beach where the shooters were seen carrying out the attack has become a place for tributes to the victims. Beside a chalk drawing of a menorah and an Australian flag, is a drawing of a bumblebee, a symbol memorializing the youngest victim of the attack, 10-year-old Matilda.

Australian Opposition Leader Sussan Ley visited the site and walked across the footbridge.

“I wasn’t prepared for the feelings that hit me when I crossed the bridge,” Ley told the Sydney Morning Herald. “I saw that bridge on television the night that it happened, and like all Australians, I was in shock and horror.”

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“Then I heard directly from people who sheltered under that bridge and saw the gunmen, and will never be able to walk through this part of Bondi again without all of those feelings coming back,” she added.

People walk past a memorial drawn on the wall of a walking bridge as a tribute following Sunday’s shooting at Bondi Beach, in Sydney, Friday, Dec. 19, 2025. (Steve Markham/AP Photo)

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Australian Olympians Jessica Fox, Ian Thorpe and Steve Solomon, along with other athletes, visited the memorial and laid flowers, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.

“Moments like this, coming in together, connecting, vowing for change, vowing for improvements and prosperity as a community and a country, is what gives us hope to put on the uniform as we have today,” Solomon, who is Jewish, told the Sydney Morning Herald.

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Fox, who is also Jewish, became emotional at the site and said, “It shouldn’t take a tragedy to bring people together.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Who was Osman Hadi; why is Bangladesh on fire over his death?

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Who was Osman Hadi; why is Bangladesh on fire over his death?

Violent protests have erupted in multiple cities in Bangladesh after prominent youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi died at Singapore’s General Hospital on Thursday.

Hadi died from gunshot injuries sustained during an assassination attempt in Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, last week.

Here is what we know so far.

Who was Sharif Osman Hadi?

Hadi, 32, was a prominent leader of Bangladesh’s 2024 student-led uprising.

He acted as a spokesperson for Inquilab Mancha, or “Platform for Revolution”, and was planning to stand as a member of parliament for the Dhaka-8 constituency in the Bijoynagar area of the city in the upcoming elections, expected in February 2026.

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Hadi was also an outspoken critic of India, where Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled following the uprising last year, and its influence on domestic politics in Bangladesh.

Protesters block Shahbag Square in Dhaka, Bangladesh, demanding justice for the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a student leader who had been undergoing treatment in Singapore after being shot in the head, in Dhaka, Bangladesh December 19, 2025 [Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters]

Where, when and how did Hadi die?

Authorities in Singapore and Inqilab Mancha announced his death on Thursday.

He died in a hospital in Singapore, where he was receiving treatment after being wounded in an assassination attempt on December 12. He was shot in the head by two assailants on a motorcycle, which pulled up beside the battery-powered auto-rickshaw he was travelling in. He was rushed to Dhaka Medical College Hospital.

Hadi was found to have suffered brain stem damage and was transferred from Dhaka to Singapore General Hospital’s neurosurgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) on December 15 for treatment.

“Despite the best efforts of the doctors … Hadi succumbed to his injuries,” Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Thursday.

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In a Facebook post late on Thursday, Inqilab Mancha announced: “In the struggle against Indian hegemony, Allah has accepted the great revolutionary Osman Hadi as a martyr.”

On Friday, groups of mourners began to assemble in the Shahbag neighbourhood in central Dhaka, awaiting Hadi’s body, which was expected to arrive in the capital on Friday evening, Al Jazeera’s Moudud Ahmmed Sujan reported from Dhaka.

How have Bangladeshi authorities responded to the shooting?

On December 12, Bangladeshi police launched a hunt for the attackers who shot Hadi.

The country’s counterterrorism unit, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) is also involved in this manhunt.

In a news release on December 13, the police released stills of CCTV footage of the incident, showing two key suspects. Police offered a reward of five million taka (about $42,000) for information leading to their arrest.

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Both men in the CCTV stills are seen wearing black clothes and glasses. While one is wearing a black hoodie, the other is wearing a black dress shirt and a wristwatch.

Bangladeshi newspaper The Daily Star reported that the country’s police and border guard have arrested at least 20 people linked to the incident so far, but the investigation is ongoing.

How have Bangladeshi leaders reacted to Hadi’s death?

The country’s interim government head, Muhammad Yunus, expressed his condolences and described Hadi’s death as “an irreparable loss for the nation”.

“The country’s march towards democracy cannot be halted through fear, terror, or bloodshed,” he said in a televised speech on Thursday.

The government also announced special prayers at mosques after Friday prayers and a half-day of mourning on Saturday.

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“We are deeply saddened by the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, spokesperson of Inqilab Manch and independent candidate for Dhaka-8 constituency,” the acting chairman of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Tareq Rahman, wrote on Facebook.

In a news statement to local media reports, the National Citizen Party (NCP) said it was “deeply saddened” by Hadi’s death and expressed condolences to his family.

How have protesters responded to his death?

Following the news of Hadi’s death, violent protests broke out in Dhaka and other parts of the country on Thursday and were continuing on Friday.

Protesters are demanding the resignation of the heads of the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Law, accusing the authorities of failing to ensure Hadi’s security. They also demand the return of the gunmen, who many believe have fled to India.

Reporting from Dhaka, Al Jazeera’s Tanvir Chowdhury said: “It’s mostly students, but also people from all walks of life, with some political party elements as well.

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“Their main slogan is ‘We want justice’ for the killer of Osman Hadi.

“They’re saying the gunman must be brought to justice as soon as possible, or they will continue to protest.”

One group of protesters gathered outside the head office of the country’s leading Bengali-language Prothom Alo daily, which they view as taking a pro-India editorial line, in Dhaka’s Karwan Bazar area. They then surged into the building, according to online portals of various leading media outlets.

A few hundred metres (yards) away, another group of protesters pushed into the premises of the Daily Star, also viewed as pro-India, and set fire to the building.

Protesters shout slogans in front of the premises of the Prothom Alo daily newspaper after news reached the country from Singapore of the death of a prominent activist Sharif Osman Hadi, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Friday, Dec. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmud Hossain Opu)
Protesters shout slogans in front of the premises of the Prothom Alo daily newspaper on Friday [Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP]

The outlet reported that 28 journalists and staff members were trapped in the burning building for four hours.

Soldiers and paramilitary border guards were deployed outside the two buildings to monitor the situation, but did not immediately take any action to disperse the protesters.

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Local media reported that protesters threw stones at the Assistant High Commission of India in Chittagong on Thursday.

Dhaka star
The Prothom Alo newspaper office in Dhaka is attacked following the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent student leader, on December 19, 2025 [Abdul Goni/Reuters]

What were the 2024 student protests in Bangladesh about?

In July 2024, students in Bangladesh took to the streets to protest against the conventional job quota system, under which jobs were reserved for descendants of Bangladesh’s freedom fighters in 1971 and who are largely regarded as the political elite now.

Hasina ordered a brutal crackdown as the protests escalated. Before she was eventually ousted and fled to India, where she remains in exile, nearly 1,400 people were killed and more than 20,000 wounded, according to the country’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT).

In July this year, Al Jazeera’s Investigative Unit obtained recorded evidence that the former Bangladesh leader had ordered police to use “lethal weapons” against the protesters.

Last month, Hasina was convicted, in absentia, of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death by the tribunal in Dhaka. India has so far not agreed to send her back to Bangladesh to face justice.

Why has this stirred up anger towards India?

In Dhaka on Friday, Al Jazeera’s Chowdhury reported: “There’s a strong anti-India sentiment in the crowd. They say India always meddles in Bangladesh’s affairs, particularly right before the elections – and that former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been making provocative statements from India, where she is taking shelter.”

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Now, following Hadi’s death, many Bangladeshis are sharing theories on the internet that the assailants have fled to India. Some politicians from youth parties have repeated these claims.

Local media quoted Sarjis Alam, a leader of the youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP), saying: “The interim government, until India returns assassins of Hadi Bhai, the Indian High Commission to Bangladesh will remain closed. Now or Never. We are in a war!”

Nadim Hawlader, 32, from Dhaka’s airport area and an activist of a Bangladesh Nationalist Party-affiliated volunteer organisation, told Al Jazeera that Hadi had been “brutally murdered” to silence dissent.

“We have come to protest his killing and what we see as Indian aggression,” Hawlader said.

He alleged that India had exerted undue influence over Bangladesh since 1971, and accused New Delhi of backing Sheikh Hasina’s rule during the past 17 years, over which time, he claimed, political repression and killings took place.

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Hawlader also alleged that the perpetrators had fled to India and said the protests would continue until “Sheikh Hasina and all those responsible for killings are returned”.

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Video: Fans in Tokyo Visit Twin Pandas Before They Head to China

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Video: Fans in Tokyo Visit Twin Pandas Before They Head to China

new video loaded: Fans in Tokyo Visit Twin Pandas Before They Head to China

Thousands of people have flocked to Ueno Zoo in Tokyo to see two giant pandas before they leave for China. There were fears in Japan that the twins would not be replaced amid political disputes between the countries.

By Jake Lucas and Axel Boada

December 18, 2025

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