- Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
- Treaty expires on February 5
- Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
- China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
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Bosnia's future is in the EU — but it needs help to get there
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.
Our commitment and destiny lie within the EU, but the speed of our journey towards membership will directly impact democracy and the living standards of our citizens, Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Denis Bećirović writes.
For decades, Bosnians and Herzegovinians have been waiting for good news from Brussels. My compatriots, who are no strangers to ill fortunes, always knew that the road to European Union membership is not without significant obstacles.
If anything, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s path has been an echo of its domestic troubles, and years of a lack of movement in EU’s own accession plans meant that many came close to losing all hope, despite personal feelings of belonging to the greater European family.
All of this changed, and my country is now on the cusp of opening membership negotiations with Brussels — the final step that ultimately leads to full-fledged membership.
Neither side can let this opportunity to finally unite us under the same banner slip away, especially not amidst the bloodiest conflict on European soil since World War II. Nearly three decades after a gruesome war in their own country, Bosnians and Herzegovinians know full well how much is at stake.
Negotiations imminent — with a caveat
Several EU member states strongly advocated for opening negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as early as December 2023, aligning its path with Ukraine and Moldova.
However, the European Council ultimately followed the European Commission’s conditional recommendation.
In this way, a message was conveyed to Bosnia and Herzegovina that a decision on the opening of negotiations is imminent, following additional progress that needs to be made in the coming months.
At the same time, it should be noted that Bosnia and Herzegovina, despite numerous internal obstacles, has achieved significant progress in the process of European integration.
A set of important laws was adopted at the state-level Parliament and the Council of Ministers. The Presidency of BiH has signed off on a series of crucial decisions and ratified numerous agreements that strengthen regional cooperation and the European path of the country.
Further delays could come with a price
The opening of negotiations for membership would be an important political signal demonstrating the EU’s readiness to commence a process with Bosnia and Herzegovina that would result in substantial and visible reforms.
This process would undoubtedly have a positive societal effect and would also signify the recognition and valorisation of the progress made along the European path.
On the other hand, further delays and prolonged waiting will inevitably contribute to the loss of enthusiasm and, importantly, erode citizens’ trust in the credibility of European integration.
According to a survey conducted in May and June of last year, 73.3% of citizens support Bosnia and Herzegovina’s accession to the EU.
This represents a robust foundational consensus for implementing reforms along the European path, something that Brussels should not hesitate to capitalise on.
I anticipate that the European Council in March will provide an opportunity for Bosnia and Herzegovina to demonstrate its dedication to European values — a chance to strengthen and deepen our mutual interconnectedness and cooperation.
The EU is learning from its mistakes
The primary culprits behind the ongoing blockade of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European path are domestic “anti-Europeans”.
They show little concern for EU membership because they understand that entry into the union entails compliance with EU rules and standards.
The European legal environment would mean the loss of existing privileges for many of them and, for some, the loss of freedom as they are associated with criminal activities and corruption.
It is equally important that the EU avoids making new miscalculations concerning Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Some of the major mistakes the EU has made include its unwillingness to consistently implement European principles and standards in BiH; a lenient policy towards destructive politicians who openly threaten the Dayton Peace Agreement and the Constitution of BiH; and a reluctance to sanction extremist politicians who threaten peace in BiH and the wider Western Balkan region.
Had Brussels taken a more decisive stance over the last ten years, Bosnia and Herzegovina would have been spared from many crises, and this part of Europe would have been much more stable.
However, there are indications that a shift is occurring. Following my visits in 2023 to both NATO and EU headquarters in Brussels, along with subsequent trips to Paris, Berlin, Washington, and London, I have become convinced that the West’s support for Bosnia and Herzegovina is gaining momentum.
During my visit to the Federal Republic of Germany, I spoke with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and received clear and unequivocal messages affirming Germany’s support for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Encouraging messages were also conveyed to me by French President Emmanuel Macron. In discussions at the Élysée Palace, President Macron offered steadfast support for preserving the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Anticonstitutional acts must end
And Bosnia and Herzegovina needs more of that same kind of backing. In the coming period, the EU should more vigorously and concretely bolster the country’s pro-European and democratic forces.
It’s essential not to forget that pro-Russian and separatist forces in the entity of the Republika Srpska (RS) intentionally obstruct my country’s European and Euro-Atlantic paths.
For six months now, there has been an overt attack against the fundamental provisions of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement — part of which is BiH’s de facto constitution — and the constitutional order of the country.
The situation is extremely grave. This is not just my personal assessment, but also an often-repeated statement made by almost all key leaders in the West.
In that vein, the West should put a stop to all anti-Dayton Peace Agreement and unconstitutional acts, the first of which is the upcoming 9 January “Day of the RS” celebration in this Bosnian entity, a holiday the Constitutional Court of BiH deemed discriminatory and unconstitutional.
Despite conclusive and binding court decisions, the entity’s leaders persist in unlawfully commemorating it, perpetuating a perilous and systematic attack on the Dayton Peace Agreement and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future.
If attempts to destroy the Dayton Peace Agreement are not stopped, the lack of action might be read as an encouragement to proceed to the next phase of increasing tensions, which could lead to the destabilisation of the entire region.
Knowing what it knows now after nearly two years of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the West can and should prevent the Kremlin’s act of aggression from triggering conflicts in the Western Balkans and further across Europe.
Our destiny lies within the EU
Ever since the country’s independence in 1992, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future has been intricately tied to that of Europe.
Should the EU demonstrate a willingness to leverage Bosnia and Herzegovina’s geopolitical, economic, and cultural advantages positively, it stands to benefit, and so does our country.
Given the evolving geopolitical dynamics, there’s a pressing need for the EU to strategically consider an expedited and more adaptable approach to its enlargement policy concerning Bosnia and Herzegovina and the rest of the countries in the region.
Moreover, the acceleration of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s path towards full EU membership would represent not only a reinforced economic and political connection but also the establishment of a new form of solidarity and shared values essential to the European identity on the whole.
Our commitment and destiny lie within the EU, and the speed of our journey towards the union will directly impact democracy and the living standards of our citizens.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is at the heart of Europe, and its rightful place is within the EU.
Denis Bećirović serves as Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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World
‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”
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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.
“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.
The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.
New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.
Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.
Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.
“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”
“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.
A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.
New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.
Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
World
Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum
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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.
As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.
“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.
“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.
MADURO ARREST SENDS ‘CLEAR MESSAGE’ TO DRUG CARTELS, ALLIES AND US RIVALS, RETIRED ADMIRAL SAYS
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)
Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”
“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.
“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”
Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.
“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.
WAS TRUMP’S MADURO OPERATION ILLEGAL? WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW HAS TO SAY
Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.
“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.
Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.
Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.
The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.
FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY
Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)
Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”
Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.
Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.
“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.
“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”
Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.
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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.
As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.
World
Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate
US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.
United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.
On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.
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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”
The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.
Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.
The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.
Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.
The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.
“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.
Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.
The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.
Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.
“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.
“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”
Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.
The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.
On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.
Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.
But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.
“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”
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