After United States President Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” on major US trading partners on April 9, he ramped them up on China’s goods. US trade levies on most imports from China have climbed to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods.

Trump has long accused China of exploiting the US on trade, casting his tariffs as necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and reshore jobs back to the US. He also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims.

For now, the US and China are locked in a high-stakes game of chicken. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which will stay the course. As Trump nears his first 100 days in office for the second time, here’s where the tariff war with China stands:

What’s happening with negotiations?

Trump recently played up the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, the US president said his tariffs on China will “come down substantially” in the near future.

“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, stirring hopes of a de-escalation. He also said his administration was “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side without elaborating.

On April 24, however, China’s Ministry of Commerce rebuffed president Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks taking place between the two countries.

“Any claims about the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” ministry spokesman He Yadong said.

While he insisted that Beijing won’t duck any economic blows from Washington, he also said the door was “wide open” for talks.

Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating exemptions for select US imports – a list of up to 131 products.

Beijing has not made any public statement on the issue.

Has the tariff war impacted US exports?

Trump introduced his sweeping tariffs on China less than three weeks ago. The fallout for US businesses won’t be fully felt until later this year. Still, the warning signals are already flashing red.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that exports of soya beans – the biggest US farm export – fell dramatically for the period April 11-17, the first full week of reporting since Trump’s China tariff announcement.

By April 17, net sales of US soya beans dropped by 50 percent compared with the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent fall in weekly soya bean exports to China, which, until recently, was America’s biggest export destination for the legume.

According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China’s retaliatory tariffs will hit US farmers hard. Some may go out of business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would come under strain.

In 2023, the US exported roughly $15bn of oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy firms.

Are imports to the US going to take a hit?

Since the start of Trump’s tariff war, cargo shipments have plummeted. According to Linerlytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese freight bookings bound for the US fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.

The drastic reduction in shipping from America’s third largest trading partner – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been felt. In May, however, thousands of companies will need to restock their inventories.

According to Bloomberg News, retail giants Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that supply shocks could roll out to Christmas.

Electronic appliances, such as TV sets and washing machines, made up 46.4 percent of US imports from China in 2022. The US also imports a lot of its clothing and pharmaceutical product ingredients from China. The price of these goods will begin to rise from next month.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised its US inflation forecast to 3 percent in 2025, owing to tariffs – a full 1 percentage point higher than in January. The lender also lowered its US economic growth forecast and raised its expectation that the US will tip into recession this year.

How will China’s economy be affected?

Despite growing tensions between the US and China, Washington and Beijing remain major trading partners.

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year.

That amounts to roughly 3 percent of China’s total economic output, which remains heavily reliant on exports.

In a report shared with its clients this month, Goldman Sachs said it expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 2.4 percentage points.

For their part, China’s top officials said the country can do without American farm and energy imports and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.

Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-US imports, domestic farm and energy production would be enough to satisfy demand.

“Even if we do not purchase feed grains and oilseeds from the United States, it will not have much impact on our country’s grain supply,” Zhao said on Monday.

He also noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing US fossil fuels.

In some ways, experts said, China has been preparing for this crisis.

Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The US is one of China’s biggest export markets, so tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing has played this smartly as it began diversifying its imports away from the US during the first Trump trade war” in 2018.

He also pointed out that “the US depends on China for up to 60 percent of its critical mineral imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow simply isn’t there, so the US is more vulnerable.”

Could the US lose its geopolitical standing?

Trump has made little secret of his wish to conscript US allies into a trade war. The administration said it aims to strike free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.

More generally, reports suggest that Washington is asking trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a pre-condition for securing relief from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.

Nevertheless, US allies seem largely opposed to any economic showdown with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.

Elsewhere, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph newspaper: “China is the second biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish to not engage.”

Many countries are not in a position to abandon their trade ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a huge trade deficit with China. Cutting off access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs for industry – would bruise its already sluggish economy.

Across the developing world, China’s trade role is equally as crucial. Roughly a quarter of Bangladesh’s and Cambodia’s imports come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for their goods imports.

“It’s hard to see why countries would want to undermine their own business interests to try and reduce America’s trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “On this point, I think Trump has been short-sighted and may be forced to blink first on lowering tariffs with China.”

Is Trump losing his grip on Republican voters?

The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to worry about its next election cycle. Trump’s Republican Party does, so Beijing has the political upper hand in Trump’s trade war. Simply put, it has more time on its side.

For Trump’s party, his sabre rattling already looks politically costly. A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans reporting Trump’s economic actions have hurt them personally more than they’ve helped by a 30-point margin.

And public approval of the president’s economic management has been low for a while: It had fallen to 37 percent in a Reuters-Ipsos poll published on March 31, his lowest score ever in that survey.

If Trump stays the course, it is likely that his approval ratings might fall still lower, jeopardising the Republican Party’s fragile grip on the US House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate, experts said.

“For these reasons”, Fortunato said, “China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table to secure a trade deal. That will probably fall to Trump.”

Walt Disney Animation Studios is paying tribute to female talent in art and animation at a one-of-a-kind exhibition during the Gran Canaria-based Animayo, Spain’s only Oscar-qualifying animation festival. From May 7-10, the exhibition Whimsy & Wonder will be exclusively on display at the fest.

Disney, an official sponsor this year, will celebrate the female artists who helped shape Disney’s visual storytelling for more than a hundred years. These include the trailblazing Mary Blair, who transformed the use of color in the 1950s, and the visionary women behind modern favorites like “Frozen,” “Encanto” and “Moana 2.” The exhibition is a homage to the women who have shaped the past—and are defining the future—of animation.

In the 1940s and ’50s, Blair (1911–1978, American), a celebrated color stylist and art director, brought a bold new vision to Disney animation. Her imaginative use of vibrant colors and whimsical shapes sparked a transformative shift in the studio’s style during the mid-20th century.

Whimsy & Wonder will offer a glimpse into the creative contributions of talented visual development and storytelling artists at Walt Disney Animation Studios, from films like “The Princess and the Frog” (2009) to Disney Animation’s most recent animated feature, “Moana 2” (2024).

The exhibition will showcase works by Blair and from six extraordinary artists at Walt Disney Animation Studios:

Exhibition takes place in the Manolo Millares & Elvireta Escobio hall at the Centro de Iniciativas de La Fundación La Caja de Canarias, CICCA, which is also a sponsor of the fest.

Led by founder-director-producer Damián Perea, Animayo Gran Canaria 2025 will bring together more than 40 distinguished speakers and special guests, featuring artists, creators, and experts from prominent studios, production companies and academic institutions from around the world.

Expressing delight at the fact that Walt Disney Animation Studios chose Animayo to present this unique exhibition on the occasion of the festival’s 20th anniversary, Perea said: “The Walt Disney Animation Research Library has curated a one-of-a-kind exhibition that spans over a century of artistic inspiration. Without a doubt, it will be an inspiration for many of the girls and young women attending the festival, who will feel empowered by the six incredible female artists showcased in this exhibition.”

As it celebrates 20 years of creativity and impact in the Canary Islands, a burgeoning animation hub, this premiere marks a milestone for Animayo, the only Oscar-qualifying festival in Spain. Iran’s “In the Shadow of the Cypress,” winner of Animayo’s Best International Short Film prize in 2024, went on to win best animated short at the 97th Academy Awards this year.

The festival’s growing roster of sponsors are led by the Cabildo of Gran Canaria through the Presidency Department, the Society for the Promotion of the City of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, the Department of Tourism, Industry and Commerce of the Government of the Canary Islands through Promotur and from the Canary Islands Institute for Cultural Development (ICDC), Gran Canaria Tourism, the La Caja de Canarias Foundation, and the Government of the Canary Islands. Animayo also relies on the participation of several production companies, studios, schools, and universities.

United Nations agencies’ monthly cash transfers to Gaza residents are inadvertently strengthening the Hamas terrorist organization, as the group and affiliated traders continue to control the money flow to the enclave, an expert on Hamas’ financial and economic operations said.

“Hamas exploits its role as the de facto ruler of Gaza to extract financial gains from aid money sent by U.N. organizations to civilians via apps still operating in the region,” Eyal Ofer told Fox News Digital.

“The aid system is being manipulated by Hamas and affiliated traders. Hamas does this largely behind the scenes, leveraging their control over large merchants, crime families, and using cash to establish a shadow banking system within Gaza.”

HOW ISRAEL’S WAR AGAINST HAMAS TERRORISTS WILL BE DIFFERENT UNDER TRUMP

Each month, international organizations send significant sums into Gaza’s economy. The U.N.’s World Food Programme (WFP) transfers approximately $18.43 million, reaching 82,636 families, with each family receiving an average of $209, according to open-source data. UNICEF’s monthly assistance averages $5 million, helping to reach at least 20,000 families every month. 

“I go to the market and meet people whose job is to provide cash in exchange for a fee,” Gaza resident Shahab Yousef told Israel’s news agency TPS-IL. “The fee is 20–30%. If I transfer 1,000 shekels [$271] I get back 700 [$190],” he said. “For big purchases, I pay digitally. But at the market, I need cash, and I lose 30 percent every time.”

Another Gaza resident, Nidal Qawasmeh, expressed similar frustration to TPS-IL. “These people are charging 30 percent just to give you cash. I just want to take care of my family, but everything costs me more because of this. Prices are insane.”

The specific amount received per family every month is around $270 (or 1,000 New Israeli Shekels), which was calculated as 80% of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket, UNICEF told Fox News Digital. Smaller organizations like UNFPA and others also contribute, bringing the total to about $39.66 million per month, reaching 60% of Gaza’s households, according to open-source data.

A man holds a wad of Israeli shekels in Gaza. (Majdi Fathi/TPS)

Despite the scale of direct financial aid, which reaches over half of the enclave’s population, Gaza’s severe food insecurity and high inflation (91% and 118%, respectively, as of January 2024) underscore its importance. However, the way this money circulates within Gaza is far more complex. “Hamas controls much of the cash that enters Gaza through various channels,” Ofer told Fox News Digital, “People who receive money via mobile apps must convert it into cash to use in local markets, but this involves hefty fees, with many money changers tied to Hamas or its allies.”

TPS-IL reported that Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar recently warned that Hamas’s economic strength in Gaza relies on billions of shekels in cash, paid as salaries and quickly reclaimed through taxes on merchants. In a letter to Bank of Israel Governor Prof. Amir Yaron, Sa’ar urged the cancelation of the circulation of 200-shekel bills previously introduced into Gaza, saying that experts believe the move would severely damage Hamas’s financial network. The Bank of Israel rejected the proposal, citing technical reasons and claiming that implementation was not feasible.

Ofer’s research found that the fees can range from 20% to 35%, meaning recipients lose a significant portion of their aid just to access it. “In videos from Gaza, you can see traders refusing to accept app funds and forcing customers to convert them into cash, knowing they will lose at least 20% in the process,” he said.

Peter Gallo, an international lawyer and former Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) investigator at the U.N., told Fox News Digital, “If an investigator in Israel can figure it out, the aid agencies either knew or should have known. Twenty to thirty percent is just ridiculous. That’s extortion. It’s what some have politely described as a ‘revolutionary tax.’ In fairness, the aid agencies might argue they had no alternative, It is the cost of doing business, but it would have been better if they were honest about it from the start.”

HAMAS TERROR GROUP REPORTEDLY BUCKLING UNDER FINANCIAL STRAIN AMID ISRAELI MILITARY GAINS AND GROWING UNREST

Palestinians shop for food and clothes at the local bazaar as daily life continues in the shadow of war in Jabalia, Gaza, on January 15, 2024. (Photo by Mahmoud Shalha/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Photo by Mahmoud Shalha/Anadolu via Getty Images)

A spokesperson for UNICEF told Fox News Digital, “UNICEF is aware of the cash liquidity crisis in Gaza and the continuous shortage of hard cash, which is a direct consequence of the banking system’s inability to function amid the ongoing conflict.

“Since May 2024, UNICEF has introduced fully digital cash payments via e-wallets, which do not require hard cash at any point. By using e-wallets, recipients of humanitarian digital cash transfers can purchase goods such as food, hygiene items and medicine without ever handling physical money,” the spokesperson said.

“The use of digital e-wallets can be accessed through an app and works on the most basic smartphones. When implemented, these digital cash payments via e-wallets eliminate the need for cash conversion and, consequently, the payment of any fees. The UNICEF humanitarian digital cash program adheres to the highest standards of neutrality and impartiality. No external party, actor, or agency—not even the beneficiaries themselves—has any role or influence in the design or implementation of the program, including the composition of the beneficiary list, payment schedule, frequency and amounts.”

World Food Programme (WFP) aid at the Erez west crossing on the Israel-Gaza border. (IDF spokesman)

The spokesperson claimed: “More than 1.8 million people—close to the entire population of Gaza—are grappling with extreme food insecurity, with at least half of them being children. . . . Acute malnutrition among children is rising at alarming rates. The UNICEF humanitarian cash transfer program is, simply put, keeping children alive in the midst of a war not of their making by providing them with access to essential items for their survival. UNICEF’s monthly budget for humanitarian cash transfers in Gaza averages USD 5 million to support approximately 20,000 families. We estimate that these parameters are too small to significantly impact the local economy.”

The World Food Programme didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.

In a statement to Fox News Digital, Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said, “This is yet another example of Hamas showing a complete disregard for the people of Gaza – and exploiting systems and infrastructure to sustain their murderous terror machine.”

“Turning a blind eye is not acceptable. The U.N. Security Council has been addressing terrorist financing since 2001, yet aid agencies continue to ignore the fact that Hamas is making a profit off this money flow, despite international efforts to stop terrorist financing,” Gallo said.