As European countries lift restrictions, is this the end of COVID-19?

From France, the place the federal government lifted an indoor masks requirement, to Austria which has determined to not implement its vaccine mandate, many European international locations are lifting restrictions whilst COVID-19 continues to flow into at excessive ranges.

There are 18 international locations within the European area which have lifted almost all virus measures, in line with the World Well being Group (WHO).

Nations have grow to be “extra accustomed to dwelling with this virus,” stated Professor David Heymann, an epidemiologist on the London College of Hygiene and Tropical Drugs, and governments are in flip letting folks do “their very own danger evaluation” somewhat than imposing restrictions on them.

Does that imply after two years of pandemic measures that we’re coming to the tip?

Is that this the tip of the COVID-19 pandemic?

“I wouldn’t name it that in the intervening time,” Dr Catherine Smallwood, WHO’s COVID-19 incident supervisor for the European area, advised Euronews.

“Actually, we’re in a part of the pandemic the place we would attempt to obtain shifting away from the acute emergency that the pandemic has introduced,” she stated, however will probably be a very long time earlier than we will “faux that the virus isn’t there anymore”.

The purpose for this 12 months could be to exit that “emergency” part, however it’s going to depend upon the way it evolves world wide, she added.

There are nonetheless rising instances and deaths in a number of Asian international locations, as an illustration, the place there may be decrease inhabitants immunity than in Europe. Circumstances and deaths are at a two-year excessive in China.

Circumstances have been general reducing within the European Union (EU) and European Financial Space (EEA) within the first week of March, in line with the European Centre for Illness Management and Prevention.

Within the public well being physique’s final surveillance report from 10 March, mortality was nonetheless rising in 10 international locations as a result of unfold of the Omicron variant. Round 83% of individuals within the EU and EEA are totally vaccinated in opposition to COVID-19.

“The resurgence will rely, I imagine, on the inhabitants immunity within the nation and as properly the vaccination protection and the historical past of earlier sickness,” stated Prof Heymann, who factors out that many individuals may have already had COVID-19 with out signs.

Will instances and hospitalisations rise as measures are lifted?

Infections are beginning to rise once more in a number of European international locations that handed an Omicron peak, with a brand new record-high variety of instances in Germany.

On Wednesday, there have been greater than 2,000 new hospitalisations and greater than 200 deaths in a day, about half of the variety of deaths recorded on the peak of Germany’s winter wave final 12 months.

Austria additionally has had rising instances and a slight rise in hospitalisations, although it’s just a bit over half the extent of hospitalisations seen throughout final 12 months’s fall wave that prompted the federal government to impose a lockdown.

“In international locations that have already got lifted measures, the virus will, in fact, make the most of that. There will probably be an elevated incidence. There will probably be elevated mortality,” stated Dr Smallwood.

Prof Heymann says these surges could also be like different coronaviruses and influenza with the onus on people to make their very own choices about danger.

“Nations might want to give attention to hospital admissions and on hospital deaths…and if they start to extend that they’re going to wish to take some further measures,” Prof Heymann stated.

Many consultants hope that there received’t be the extra strict measures corresponding to lockdowns that Europe noticed beforehand as a result of inhabitants immunity by way of vaccination and pure an infection.

However German well being minister Karl Lauterbach stated this week that and not using a vaccine mandate, it could possibly be tough to regulate the pandemic in a while within the autumn.

“We’re seeing excessive numbers of individuals dying, 15,000 folks within the European area (which incorporates a part of central Asia) simply final week. These numbers are coming down, however we’ll see instances improve as international locations carry the measures,” stated Dr Smallwood.

What are the best dangers within the pandemic’s future?

There could possibly be new mutations and variants that escape the safety of vaccines, consultants say.

“But when that happens, we’re lucky to have vaccines, which might be modified very, very quickly and used very successfully,” Prof Heymann stated.

Dr Smallwood says that whereas there aren’t any crimson flags in the intervening time, the World Well being Group is consistently monitoring adjustments to the virus.

Along with robust surveillance, “we will anticipate the chance” of the virus, stated Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of World Well being on the College of Geneva.

“We all know that the virus transmits in indoor areas which might be poorly ventilated and accommodate the general public,” he stated.

One of many essential points to work by way of is best ventilating these areas with out sacrificing vitality use, he added.

The present danger is for these within the inhabitants who stay susceptible to the sickness, the unvaccinated who’ve comorbidities and people who are immunocompromised for whom vaccination doesn’t work.

“I feel that we must always all be extraordinarily conscious that there stay susceptible folks in our populations which may be extraordinarily anxious by the current bulletins that extra of those easy measures have been lifted,” stated Dr Smallwood.

“I feel it is on every of us to actually take into consideration our duty in the direction of these folks.”