A New Covid Mystery

Nonetheless, the scarcity of testing doesn’t appear to be the one motive that instances haven’t surged within the U.S. Traits in Covid hospitalizations sometimes lag case traits by solely a couple of week. And hospitalizations have continued to fall within the U.S., to their lowest degree in additional than two years.

3. Simply wait

Even when excessive ranges of immunity have stored instances from rising up to now, the impact will not be everlasting. Bear in mind: About 45 p.c of Individuals had been contaminated with Omicron, which leaves about 55 p.c who weren’t. Whereas a lot of these 55 p.c could have had an earlier model of Covid, immunity can wane over time.

The present second may be a kind of instances once we’re asking why instances haven’t begun to rise proper as they start to rise. “It could be too early to see a sign,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a Brown College epidemiologist, informed me.

4. One other thriller

All through the pandemic, Osterholm — the Minnesota epidemiologist — has lamented that many scientists, journalists and laypeople exaggerate how a lot we truly learn about Covid. His favourite instance: The Alpha variant swept by Michigan and Minnesota final yr after which largely died out, with out inflicting case will increase in different elements of the U.S. One other instance: BA.2 has lately turn into the dominant variant in India, South Africa and another nations with out inflicting a spike in instances.

Once I referred to as Osterholm yesterday to ask why instances had not surged over the previous few weeks, he merely mentioned: “I don’t know, and I don’t suppose anyone actually is aware of.”

Of all of the variants, solely the unique Omicron was so contagious that it unfold around the globe in predictable methods, he mentioned. Different variations of the virus have surged and receded in mysterious methods, a lot as a forest hearth can die out with out burning down a complete forest.

The underside line: Instances nonetheless appear more likely to rise, maybe considerably, within the U.S. quickly. However a brand new wave appears much less sure than it did a number of weeks in the past. Regardless, the steps that may save lives in coming months stay the identical: extra vaccine pictures, together with boosters; and larger consciousness of accessible remedies that provide additional safety for the weak.