Within the 4 months because the NFL draft, buzz has been constructing round Washington Commanders receiver Jahan Dotson. It’s picked up in coaching camp, the place the 22-year-old has been mature on the sector (polished routes) and off (poise and professionalism with followers and media). He’s flashed big-play potential, like just lately, when he caught a cross between his legs for a landing. Even the bombastic defensive backs needed to admit he’d reeled in a tricky one.
Washington
WR Jahan Dotson has lit up Commanders camp. What could the season hold?
However past the thrill: What are life like expectations for Dotson’s rookie 12 months?
In interviews, Coach Ron Rivera, Dotson and others have hesitated to harness their optimistic expectations to numbers. Why would they? Some teammates, together with quarterback Carson Wentz, have merely expressed confidence in Dotson and echoed Rivera’s sentiment: “I simply need him to exit and be who he’s.”
“I really feel like I’m progressing very nicely,” Dotson mentioned. “Not trying too far forward sooner or later. Simply coming in and dealing every single day. That’s all I can do.”
Prior to now decade, as passing charges have continued to climb, groups have more and more forsaken operating backs to spend money on pass-catchers. After the wideout market exploded this spring, groups drafted 13 receivers within the first two rounds, which is tied with 2020 for essentially the most since no less than 2000, and the Commanders guess on the undersized-but-advanced Dotson.
The inflow of proficient wideouts over the previous two years has redefined what groups can anticipate from rookies. In 2020, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson had extra receiving yards (1,400) than any first-year wideout in NFL historical past, and the subsequent 12 months, Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase used one further sport to outdo him (1,455) whereas serving to carry the Bengals offense to the Tremendous Bowl.
In Washington, expectations for Dotson have to be decrease. At 5-foot-11 and 178 kilos, he might generally battle in opposition to larger, stronger defensive backs, and he isn’t the Commanders’ high goal. When the offense is totally wholesome, coordinator Scott Turner should divvy up roughly 60 to 65 touches per sport between Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Dyami Brown, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Brian Robinson Jr. and others.
However Dotson must be on the sector usually. Turner makes use of three or extra receivers at one of many highest charges within the league — 75 % of the time final 12 months, in line with Sharp Soccer — and can proceed to take action this season. Turner’s method mixed with Dotson’s superior ability set and rapport with Wentz ought to assist coaches really feel snug with him on the sector in most conditions regardless of his inexperience.
“Carson [and] the quarterbacks like throwing the ball to him,” Turner mentioned through the staff’s second offseason exercise. “There’s a whole lot of issues we’ll be capable of do with him.”
Historical past suggests the chances are respectable that Dotson could have a profitable rookie marketing campaign. In Might, Peter Engler of the thirty third Staff, a soccer publication, studied the previous decade of rookie receivers and located many of the high performers adopted a strikingly related development: They had been four- or five-star high-school recruits who attended blue-chip faculty packages and compiled a number of years of elite manufacturing.
Engler additionally discovered some components mattered lower than anticipated — measurement, quarterback, agility checks on the NFL scouting mix — however there have been all the time outliers who defied the developments, reminiscent of Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp.
In his conclusion, Engler recognized just a few rookies likeliest to interrupt out, together with Drake London of Atlanta, Christian Watson of Inexperienced Bay and Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets. However the findings nonetheless bode nicely for Dotson, who was a four-star recruit and had two years of elite manufacturing at Penn State.
So how good ought to Dotson be this season? Among the many 43 receivers who had been drafted within the first spherical previously decade, there are booms (Chase and Jefferson) and busts (Minnesota’s Laquon Treadwell and Washington’s Josh Doctson), however the 38 who performed a qualifying variety of snaps averaged a stable 13 video games, 84 targets, 49 catches, 672 yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, in line with TruMedia.
The stat line is much like the totals of Houston’s Will Fuller in 2016 and San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk in 2020.
If Dotson had produced related figures for the Commanders final season — roughly three catches and 40 yards per sport — he would’ve been the staff’s second-most productive pass-catcher by a cushty margin. He would’ve lastly delivered to Turner a dependable No. 2 wideout to assist alleviate the eye on McLaurin.
This season, Washington received’t put that stress solely on Dotson. The Commanders upgraded at quarterback and hedged their pass-catcher bets, so if Dotson hits a rookie wall, as Brown did final 12 months, the staff has weapons to enrich him. But when his first three weeks of camp are extra sign than noise, Dotson appears to have the mind-set for the pains of an NFL season, when it most likely helps to not care in regards to the numbers.
Lately, Dotson mentioned the insights he cared about most got here from his friends, reminiscent of McLaurin.
“You’ll be able to by no means cease studying, so any info or information that guys are giving to me … I’m taking it,” he mentioned. “I’m utilizing it so I will help higher myself.”