What to expect from the 2022-23 Washington Capitals after free agency

Let’s assume for a second that the Washington Capitals are finished with their offseason strikes. I’m undecided that’s the case, however let’s assume. Chris Cerullo took a stab at what the staff’s opening evening roster may seem like, which implies for the primary time we will start to think about how the Capitals of 2022-23 will look in comparison with the staff of 2021-22.

The modifications, briefly, go like this: Oshie will slot in for injured Wilson. Brown in flip will take Oshie’s spot, as Strome covers for injured Backstrom. Larsson’s out, however AJF will fill in, as Gustaffson swaps in for Schultz on protection, and the Kuemper/Lindgren duo are the brand new goalies.

All that, plus yet one more gigantic issue, can inform us what to anticipate from subsequent season’s Capitals.

I’ve spent the offseason attempting to know the place Washington’s flaws are and the way they may repair them with out being me being megadorky and unapproachable. If I mix Chris’ projected roster with our sloppy mannequin of Washington’s positional strengths, I get an approximate understanding of the enhancements (or not) that I can color-code and emojify like this:

On this case, inexperienced means the place is stronger and purple means the place is weaker, with up and down arrows evaluating the change from place’s former occupant. Shrug and previous man emojis, I hope, are self explanatory.

Now let’s undergo Washington’s offseason strikes by place want and see the place we ended up and the way we acquired there.

Prime-line proper wing

With out Tom Wilson for a minimum of a pair months, the staff wanted at minimal a heat physique on the suitable facet. They acquired far more than that in Connor Brown, acquired by way of commerce from the Ottawa Senators. Brown can rating, however greater than that he’s an efficient puck-mover and passer. It’s these abilities that make me suppose he’d be a greater match for a high line that badly wants speedy passage by means of the impartial zone. Chris’ projected lineup has Brown on the second line, which is okay, aside from asking TJ Oshie to be Ovechkin’s off wing. At 35, Oshie doesn’t have the sturdiness or dynamism of Wilson, and even Wilson’s skillset doesn’t appear to be an excellent match for Ovechkin and Kuznetsov’s shortcomings. However Connor Brown may very well be precisely that.

Additional, the Caps prevented paying a free-agency worth for an unremarkable slate of accessible proper wingers (although Elliotte Friedman mentioned the Caps had been within the hunt for winger Mason Marchment, which might have been very cool).

Total, I feel MacLellan dealt with this example in addition to they may have. Now it’s as much as Peter Laviolette to not blow it.

Center-six middle

I feel the staff’s weak point at this place is worse than popularly believed. Nick Backstrom’s future is – at finest – unsure, however I additionally fear about Lars Eller’s capacity to deal with 3C assignments at this level in his profession. So middle-six middle is the place the Caps might have swung huge in free company, besides that’s not what they did. As a substitute they signed Dylan Strome, who wasn’t even alleged to be accessible this summer time.

Strome didn’t obtain a qualifying supply from Chicago, who’re attempting to suck on objective, however he’s really a wonderfully appropriate second-line middle, ticking all of the containers you count on of that place: driving play and producing scoring possibilities. Contemplating the Capitals had been in an untenable state of affairs with Backstrom taking part in (poorly) by means of a big damage, the one-year deal for Strome at a good worth is a significant improve.

Depth left wing

The Caps will miss Johan Larsson, who was one-third of the staff’s most competent line and who might have flexed to third-line middle if and when Lars Eller sputtered. I used to be underwhelmed by the staff’s choices to exchange him in free company, however but once more the staff opted to fill the place by different means. Chris initiatives the staff to go along with Axel Jonsson-Fjallby as fourth-line proper wing, which will probably be simply positive, if not on the identical degree because the Larsson-Dowd-Hathaway trio.

I might additionally see the staff utilizing Marcus Johansson (technically a UFA signing, I suppose) on the fourth line in the event that they get good outcomes from AJF or Connor McMichael. I admit that this could be a really blissful and equally unlikely contingency: the staff efficiently creating a younger ahead and giving them commensurate ice time.

However right here’s the purpose I really want to underline: The Capitals prevented paying free-agency premiums for all three of their 2RW, 2C, and 4LW wants. Very savvy.

Left-handed defender

On condition that Justin Schultz’s contract had expired and that Martin Fehervary had disenchanted within the again half of the season, I had hoped the staff could be bold in filling their want with top-end expertise. As a substitute, they had been fairly cautious — signing depth defender Erik Gustafsson to an inexpensive, one-year deal.

Chris and I each assume this implies the staff believes Martin Fehervary can justify his top-pairing project. I feel that’s a bit… aspirational so far as roster administration goes, however I get the reluctance, and even Gustafsson represents an improve from Schultz, who was the most important weak point on final season’s blue line.

The Caps even have numerous good choices on the farm: Alexander Alexeyev, Matt Irwin, and Lucas Johansen might every get jerseys in some unspecified time in the future. If wanted, Gustafsson and his $800k wage cap hit could be completely acceptable as a healthy-scratch seventh defender.

Goalies

To this point I’ve been describing a free-agency session from Washington that has been conservative and frugal. That’s over now. Having acknowledged that their goaltending state of affairs flat-out sucked for 2 seasons, the Caps wiped the slate clear and acquired new guys on the open market.

The massive title is Darcy Kuemper, an excellent goalie so long as his eye isn’t all goofed up. The Caps paid less than I expected for the Cup-winning goaltender, the supposed results of two components: hesitance over Kuemper’s not-great playoff efficiency throughout that eye damage, and Kuemper really eager to play in DC. Participant enthusiasm is a market inefficiency.

The opposite title is Charlie Lindgren, infamous amongst hockey analysts as the man you filter out of stories as a result of his variety of video games performed is just too low. Lindgren reportedly slayed for AHL Springfield final season, and his current appearances on the NHL degree have been encouraging, although he actually didn’t fare properly with the Montreal Canadiens a couple of years again. I contemplate Lindgren an open query. His worth isn’t but mounted, and he might find yourself being an enormous boon, particularly in comparison with the gamers he changed.

But when we’re speaking about how the Caps look heading into subsequent season, we will’t simply discuss concerning the new names within the lineup. The larger influence as I see it’s the ever-increasing age of the staff’s core.

On most groups, the most typical age for gamers primarily based on their ice time is round 27. Final season in Washington it was nearer to 31. From HockeyViz:

The Washington Capitals are an previous staff, and that’s critically necessary.

Earlier than he joined the Colorado Avalanche, analyst Dawson (“Don’t Tell Me About Heart“) Sprigings helped us perceive how NHL gamers decayed as they age. Under is Evolving Hockey’s graph of the getting old curve utilizing Sprigings’ knowledge. I’ve defaced the graph by noting the present ages of a few of Washington’s older core gamers to offer you an thought how of gamers like them are likely to drop off.

Once more: This doesn’t must imply these gamers are in decline. It simply means they’re within the a part of their careers the place comparable gamers decline. And people gamers characterize about one third of Washington’s Objectives Above Substitute (GAR, in keeping with Evolving Hockey) final season.

As a lot as reinforcements assist, Washington’s fortunes are in the end decided by their core gamers and the way these core gamers resist the pull of time – or don’t. Washington is an previous staff getting older yearly. For these returns to not diminish requires fixed, escalating vigilance of an unusual selection.

So, uh, good luck!

An earlier model of this story beforehand appeared on the RMNB Patreon web page.

Screenshot courtesy of @Capitals