Washington Commanders 2022 NFL betting preview: Predictions as Carson Wentz takes over

Main as much as the 2022 NFL season, Put up Motion Betting will launch a playing preview for all 32 groups within the Nationwide Soccer League, protecting the schedule, predictions, win complete over/below picks and prop bets for each staff. Right this moment, we are going to cowl the Washington Commanders. Be sure you take a look at our Pittsburgh Steelers preview, printed yesterday.

Washington Commanders (66/1 to win the Tremendous Bowl, BetMGM)

2021 Report: 7-10 (third in NFC East)

Ron Rivera returns for his third season with Washington, who made a splash this offseason by buying QB Carson Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts. 

Rivera will hope Wentz is a difference-maker for Washington, which proved a really up-and-down staff final season. After beginning 2-2, they misplaced 5 of six earlier than successful 4 straight and shutting the season 1-4. Washington will probably be with out edge rusher Chase Younger early on, who remains to be recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week 10 final season. 

Rivera will even want to enhance his staff’s cross protection. Final season, Washington ranked twenty eighth in cross DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com, whereas ending seventh in rush DVOA. Nevertheless, the latter rating is essentially based mostly on video games with Younger, as Washington struggled towards the run with out the Ohio State product on the sphere.

Commanders offseason strikes: Draft, trades, free agent signings, damage report

• Acquired QB Carson Wentz + draft decide from Indianapolis Colts for 3 draft picks
• Drafted Penn State WR Jahan Dotson (No. 16), Alabama DT Phidarian Mathis (No. 45), Alabama RB Brian Robinson Jr. (No. 98), Louisiana-Lafayette S Percy Butler (No. 113), North Carolina QB Sam Howell (No. 144), Nevada TE Cole Turner (No. 149), Tulsa G Chris Paul (No. 230), Oklahoma State CB Christian Holmes (No. 240) 
• Signed WR Alex Erickson, G Trai Turner, CBs DeVante Cross, Josh Drayden and Devin Taylor and TEs Curtis Hodges & Armani Rogers.

Commanders 2022 Schedule

Week 1: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 2: at Detroit Lions

Week 3: vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Week 4: at Dallas Cowboys

Week 5: vs. Tennessee Titans

Week 6: at Chicago Bears 

Week 7: vs. Inexperienced Bay Packers

Week 8: at Indianapolis Colts

Week 9: vs. Minnesota Vikings

Week 10: at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 11: at Houston Texans

Week 12: vs. Atlanta Falcons

Week 13: at New York Giants

Week 14: BYE

Week 15: vs. New York Giants

Week 16: at San Francisco 49ers

Week 17: vs. Cleveland Browns

Week 18: vs. Dallas Cowboys

NFL Betting Traces: Commanders Win Complete O/U

This win complete is closely juiced to the below, which is priced at -170 as of this writing. For these bettors within the over, you may get a juicy +145. 

Nevertheless, I’m barely stunned at how assured bookmakers are that the Commanders fail to clear this win complete. Primarily based on my Motion colleague Sean Koerner’s power of schedule projections, the Commanders enter the 2022-23 season with the third-easiest schedule within the NFL. 

Plus, most of their trip-wire matchups come at residence – Week 7 towards Inexperienced Bay, Week 9 towards Minnesota and Week 18 towards Dallas. As for his or her highway schedule, I imagine that other than San Francisco and Dallas, the rest are winnable video games that may characteristic single-digit spreads (assuming full well being).

The addition of Wentz, who ranked sixteenth amongst all quarterbacks final yr in DVOA, ought to increase a Washington offense that ranked twenty first in staff DVOA final season, per footballoutsiders.com. Ought to that happen, the Commanders will undoubtedly just like the appears to be like of a schedule that options eight video games towards groups that ranked within the backside half of staff defensive DVOA final season. 

Moreover, I’m additional questioning the value right here based mostly on the previous outcomes for the Commanders. Within the final two seasons below Rivera, the Commanders have gained seven video games. 

Are they able to bettering by two wins with a reliable quarterback and weak schedule? 

Completely. Regardless of his flaws, Wentz ought to assist steadiness this offensive assault and information the Commanders to over this win complete. 

Regardless of DE Chase Younger seemingly lacking the opening a part of the season, I’m not about to overreact to that absence. Final season, Washington went 4-4 in video games with out the Ohio State edge rusher. 

For all these causes, take the over on Washington’s win complete as much as +115. 

Commanders O/U 8.5 Wins: The Choose

Over 8.5 Wins (+145) 

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Carson Wentz Over 21.5 Passing TD’s (-112, FanDuel)

After buying Wentz, I count on the Commanders will make him the focus of their offense. That perception ought to result in Wentz going over his landing prop of 21.5 for the season.  

Past that oversimplified principle, there are supporting statistics that additional level to Wentz clearing this benchmark. First is that below Rivera, Washington has confirmed mediocre at establishing the run. Final season, they ranked nineteenth in speeding DVOA. Within the season prior, they had been 14th, per footballoutsiders.com. 

Moreover, each Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have established themselves as dependable receivers out of the backfield. Final season, of the 57 running-backs that obtained no less than 25 passes, each ranked twenty fifth or higher in defense-adjusted yards above substitute. 

Washington makes an energetic effort to make use of their backs in a passing recreation and that the ball will probably be in Wentz’s palms as a rule, particularly close to the purple zone.  

Lastly, regardless of all his perceived flaws, Wentz has cleared this quantity in two of his final three seasons. Primarily based on these developments, again this market as much as -125.