The topic of further conference realignment has been held at bay over the past several months with the claim that any further movement was only “rumors” or “speculation.” It felt like water was building up and the dam holding it all back was starting to crack with every day that passed without a new TV deal for the Pac-12.
On Wednesday evening, the dam was breached with the report that the Colorado Buffaloes are fleeing for the Big-12, a move that will be voted on and likely announced later this week.
Now the biggest question is how extensive the damage will be, and how many teams end up leaving the Pac-12 before the dam can be rebuilt.
For fans of the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies, that’s a pertinent question that many fans in their own area are split on. Both schools have aspirations of making it to the “big boy’s table” and moving to the Big Ten to play alongside USC, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. But will this Colorado detraction be enough movement to get them the leverage that they need to jump ship out west? Or does the Pac-12 still have enough juice to try and smooth the surface and keep its nine teams in place?
According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Oregon and Washington currently “hold all of the cards” when it comes to further realignment. The two schools know that they are the biggest brands out west, and if they want a bigger share of revenue than the Pac-12 is willing to give them, then a move to a bigger conference — whether that’s the Big Ten or Big-12 — is justifiable. They’ve got the juice to make that move as well.
It’s uncertain when the eyes of the Big Ten could turn to Oregon and Washington. They’d likely go for a partial share, but the Big Ten presidents and athletic directors weren’t eager to add them when former commissioner Kevin Warren made a late push to get an additional television deal via a streaming partner last year. It’s likely they’ll end up there eventually, but the tricky variable is when that would happen.
If the Big Ten commissioner woke up on Thursday morning and publicly asked Oregon and Washington to join their conference, I feel like this would be an easy decision for both the Ducks and Huskies. However, nothing is quite that simple. There’s the revenue share for new members, and it would also come with the ruffling of feathers in Los Angeles after the USC Trojans distinctly said that they wanted to be the only LA-area recruiting power in the Big Ten conference. Adding Oregon would change that immediately.
Per Thamel, the best thing that Oregon and Washington can do at the moment is wait and win.
So Washington and Oregon have to keep winning and waiting, as eventually there will be another round of realignment. Since USC and UCLA joined, there’s already a new Big Ten commissioner, Tony Petitti, and USC’s athletic director, Mike Bohn, resigned.
For the long haul, it would make sense for the Pac-12 to add San Diego State and SMU and perhaps a growth property like UNLV, Colorado State or Fresno State for their markets or Boise State for their consistent football success and strong brand. Bigger is safer, but that’s going to clash with the short-term goals of Oregon and Washington.
A nine-team league would appear vulnerable. But any strategy that alienates Oregon and Washington wouldn’t make sense either.
Will we get an answer today, or this week? That seems incredibly unlikely. The University of Oregon Board of Trustees is meeting on Thursday at 10 a.m., so there could be an opportunity to discuss conference movement, but the more likely topic is Dan Lanning’s recent contract extension.
Thanks to Colorado, though, we are now in a period of time where the topic of conference realignment — and where the Oregon Ducks are going to end up — is once again at the top of the list when it comes to water cooler fodder at work.
All of this with less than a week to go before fall practices start. Welcome to football season.