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Analysis | Kamala Harris’s vice presidential pick comes into sharper focus

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Analysis | Kamala Harris’s vice presidential pick comes into sharper focus


Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in a 2024 election that’s increasingly all about vibes — and vetting the VP picks.

(Make sure you are subscribed to this newsletter here. You can also hear my analysis weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.)

The big moment

It’s getting to be crunchtime for Vice President Harris’s choice of a running mate.

The pick is due by Aug. 7, when the Democratic Party aims to formally nominate its ticket, solidifying Harris’s elevation to the top slot after President Biden’s exit from the contest. But we just got word that Harris is planning to tour the battlegrounds with the pick next week, which suggests it could come before the deadline.

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Meanwhile, we’re seeing the candidates wage what’s basically a sprint of a campaign for the job — a remarkable scene in itself. They’ve done events for her both virtually and on the campaign trail, they’ve blanketed the airwaves with media appearances, and many of them seem to be making the case as much for themselves as for Harris.

That sprint of a campaign — along with two candidates indicating Monday that they’re not the pick — has crystallized the choice for Harris. So I thought it a good time to update my previous handicapping based on the latest.

The momentum candidate: Walz

Nobody’s stock has risen over the past week as much as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), who was previously thought to be something of a dark horse for the job. Walz has pushed himself into the conversation with a barrage of media appearances in which he’s played up his rural roots and everyman appeal. Perhaps nobody has “campaigned” for the job quite as much as he has.

But subtly, perhaps the best argument for Walz is how he’s seeded the biggest emerging Democratic talking point: that the GOP ticket is “weird.” Walz almost seemed to stumble upon it a week ago, but it quickly took hold.

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The other messenger candidate: Buttigieg

To the extent this VP pick is about taking the fight to Republicans, Walz has some real competition for that mantle: from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has also been all over the airwaves.

And while Walz is the hot new thing, Buttigieg has been doing this kind of thing for years — even going on Fox News to joust with its hosts. An appearance this past Sunday in which Buttigieg declined to accept the Fox host’s premises has been shared far and wide on the left.

The swing-state picks: Shapiro and Kelly

While those two candidates might be the insurgents, two potential swing-state-focused picks thought to be leading contenders from the start still loom large — particularly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

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Shapiro has been touring his home state in a potential preview of what he could provide the Harris campaign in a crucial state. And a Fox News poll this weekend reinforced the asset he could be. Shapiro’s favorable rating in Pennsylvania was 61 percent — compared to just 32 percent unfavorable — and more than three in 10 Donald Trump supporters liked him. He even led Trump by 10 points in a hypothetical matchup as the party’s nominee.

Kelly has been quieter than these other candidates, and he maintains a lower profile. But an ABC News/Ipsos poll this week showed him with the best net image rating of any of the potential picks.

While other candidates have gone after JD Vance — Walz’s “weird” comments have keyed on Vance — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has focused his pitch extensively on the GOP vice-presidential pick. He’s called Vance a “phony” who has “exploited” and exaggerated his ties to eastern Kentucky and Appalachia. He’s even said he would be eager to debate Vance. That’s a pretty eager (and arguably presumptuous) statement.

To the extent the name of the game is to create a contrast in running mates, Beshear has positioned himself as that.

Two major candidates thought to be in the mix signaled Monday that we should look elsewhere. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said that he’s pulling out of consideration, while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said she’s “not a part of the vetting” — after previously suggesting that she wouldn’t take the job.

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Others who have been mentioned but haven’t been as out front include Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

Another key moment

The presidential race is suddenly blocking out the political sun. But federal and state primaries are kicking back into gear after a sleepy month of July. And we start with a big one Tuesday in Arizona.

The Washington Post’s Amy B Wang has your primer for that state’s primaries. A couple big storylines to watch:

  • It’s long been assumed that former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake would win the GOP nomination for Senate, and that still appears likely — especially after Lake got some late help from Trump. But the most recent polling suggests that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb has narrowed the gap somewhat, as some fret that Lake can’t win a general election. (Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has regularly led in head-to-head matchups with Lake). If Lake doesn’t win big, expect some more fretting.
  • One of the ugliest and most contentious Republican primaries in recent history culminates tonight in the 8th Congressional District. It features a pair of statewide candidates who lost alongside Lake in 2022 — former Senate nominee Blake Masters and former attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh — along with state House Speaker Ben Toma and former congressman Trent Franks. Masters has not-subtly pointed to Hamadeh’s heritage and lack of a family, while Hamadeh has played up his “testosterone” and accused Masters of “having a mental breakdown.” Trump previously endorsed Hamadeh but hedged his bets over the weekend by also endorsing Masters (something he’s done before, by endorsing “Eric” in a 2022 Senate primary featuring more than one Eric.)

A momentous number

That’s the percentage of voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll who were so-called “double-haters” — who disliked both of the two major-party presidential candidates.

That number is way down from where it’s been for much of the 2024 election cycle; it’s generally hovered around 20 percent. The number has declined given how much better voters like Harris than Biden, but it’s also declined in part because of improved views of Trump. (Multiple recent high-quality polls show around 47 or 48 percent of voters like Trump.)

That renders this group less pivotal for the race ahead, at least for now. But we shouldn’t rule out the possibility that both Harris and Trump are enjoying a bit of a temporary honeymoon — Harris after replacing Biden, and Trump after the assassination attempt and the recent Republican National Convention.

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The good news for Harris: Recent polling suggests she does better with these double-haters than Biden was doing. A Fox News poll in Wisconsin showed her winning them by 25 points, after such voters were split in the poll back in April.

Take a moment to read:



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Caps Fall in Montreal, 6-2 | Washington Capitals

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Caps Fall in Montreal, 6-2 | Washington Capitals


Cole Caufield scored in the first minute of the first period and added another goal later in the frame, sparking the Montreal Canadiens to a 6-2 win over the Capitals on Saturday night at Bell Centre.

Washington entered the game with a modest three-game winning streak and six wins in its last seven games. Although they were able to briefly draw even with the Habs after Caufield’s opening salvo, Caufield and the Canadiens responded quickly and the Caps found themselves chasing the game for the remainder of the night.

“I didn’t mind some of the things that we did tonight,” says Caps coach Spencer Carbery. “I thought we created enough offensively, we just made way too many catastrophic mistakes to be able to sustain that.”

In the first minute of the game, Caufield blocked a Jakob Chychrun point shot, tore off on the resulting breakaway and beat Charlie Lindgren for a 1-0 lead for the Canadiens, half a minute into the contest. Lindgren was making his first start since Jan. 29, following a short stint on injured reserve for a lower body injury he sustained in that game.

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After the two teams traded unsuccessful power plays, the Caps pulled even in the back half of the first. With traffic in front, Declan Chisholm let a shot fly from the left point. The puck hit Anthony Beauvillier and bounded right to Alex Ovechkin, who had an easy tap-in for career goal No. 920 at 13:16 of the first.

But Montreal came right back to regain the lead 63 seconds later, scoring a goal similar to the one Ovechkin just scored.

From the left point, Canadiens defenseman Jayden Struble put a shot toward the net. It came to Nick Suzuki on the goal line, and the Habs captain pushed it cross crease for Caufield to tap it home from the opposite post at 14:19.

Less than two minutes later, Lindgren made a dazzling glove save to thwart Caufield’s hat trick bid.

Midway through the middle period, Montreal went on the power play again. Although the Caps were able to kill the penalty, the Habs added to their lead seconds after the kill was completed; Mike Matheson skated down  a gaping lane in the middle of the ice and beat Lindgren from the slot to make it a 3-1 game at 12:22.

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Minutes later, Montreal netminder Jakub Dobes made a big stop on Aliaksei Protas from the right circle, and Suzuki grabbed the puck and took off in the opposite direction. From down low on the right side, he fed Kirby Dach in the slot, and Dach’s one-timer made it 4-1 for the Canadiens at 16:34 of the second.

In the waning seconds of the second, Dobes made one of his best stops of the night on Beauvillier, enabling the Canadiens to carry a three-goal lead into the third.

Those two quick goals in the back half of the second took some wind out of the Caps, who were playing their third game in four nights following the three-week Olympic break.

“We kill off a penalty, and then we end up going down 3-1right after the penalty,” says Caps center Nic Dowd. “Those are challenging to give up, right? You do a good job [on the kill], it’s a 2-1 game, and then all of a sudden, before you blink, it’s 4-1 and then the game gets away from you.

“And they defended well tonight; It’s tough to score goals in this League, and you go into the third period, and you’ve got to score three. You saw that [Friday] night when we played Vegas; they were able to score two, but it’s tough to get that third one. I think we have to manage situations a little bit better. It’s a 2-1 game on a back-to-back, we just kill a penalty off, or maybe we just have a power play – whatever it is – we have to manage that, especially in an arena like this, where the crowd gets into it on nothing plays. They can really sway momentum – and in a good way – for their home team.

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“We just have to understand that if we don’t have our legs in certain situations, because of travel, it’s back-to-back or whatever, we really have to key into the details of the game and not let things get away from us quickly.

With 7:28 left in the third, Ovechkin netted his second of the game – and the fifth goal he has scored in this building this season – on a nice feed from Dylan Strome to pull the Caps within two goals of the Habs, who have coughed up some late leads this season.

But Montreal salted the game away with a pair of late empty-net goals from Suzuki and Jake Evans, respectively.

In winning six of their previous seven games, the Caps had been playing with a lead most of the time. But playing from behind virtually all night against a good team in a tough building is a tall task under any circumstances. And it was exactly that for the Caps on this night.

“They score on the first shift,” says Strome. “Obviously, Saturday night in Montreal is as good and as loud as it gets. They just got a fortunate bounce; puck was off Caulfield’s leg, and a perfect bounce for a breakaway. It’s just one of those things where we got down early and now they kind of fed off the momentum of the crowd.

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“But I still think our game is in a good spot, and we’ve just got to keep stacking wins. Obviously, we’ve played more games than everyone so we’re going to need some help, but we’ve just got to keep stacking wins. It’s tough on the back-to-back in Montreal, but we’ll find a way to bounce back on Tuesday [vs. Utah at home] and then go from there.”



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The Fallout From the Epstein Files

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The Fallout From the Epstein Files


The Department of Justice is facing scrutiny this week after it was revealed that records involving President Trump were missing from the public release of the Epstein files. On Washington Week With The Atlantic, panelists joined to discuss the ensuing political fallout for the Trump administration, and more.

“The key thing to remember about the Epstein story is that it is a case that has been mishandled for decades. The reason that we’re hearing about this now and why it’s exploding into public view is because, for the first time, Republicans in Congress and Democrats in Congress were willing to openly defy their leadership and call for the release of these files,” Sarah Fitzpatrick, a staff writer at The Atlantic, said last night. “That has never been done before, and I think it really is changing the political landscape in ways that we’re still just starting to learn.”

“What’s been so striking is how many of those very same Republicans who were calling for the release of those files, who had promised to get to the bottom of them, are now saying things that are just the opposite,” Stephen Hayes, the editor of The Dispatch, argued.

Joining guest moderator Vivian Salama, a staff writer at The Atlantic, to discuss this and more: Andrew Desiderio, a senior congressional reporter at Punchbowl News; Fitzpatrick; Hayes; and Tarini Parti, a White House reporter at The Wall Street Journal.

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Watch the full episode here.



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Man charged with shooting co-worker in Washington Heights

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Man charged with shooting co-worker in Washington Heights


A 26-year-old man had an argument with a co-worker before allegedly fatally shooting the colleague in Washington Heights, prosecutors said Friday.

Bobby Martin, who was charged with first-degree murder Thursday, made his first appearance Friday in Cook County court.

Martin, is accused of killing his co-worker, Antoine Alexander, 32, in a parking lot at 9411 S Ashland Ave about 3:30 p.m. on Tuesday, according to Chicago police.

Prosecutors said Martin and Alexander worked together at an armed security company and got into a verbal altercation inside the guard shack on Tuesday afternoon. During the altercation, prosecutors said Alexander removed his bullet proof vest and threw it to the ground. A witness, another co-worker, then told the defendant and the victim to take the altercation outside.

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After stepping outside, the defendant pulled his firearm and fired one shot into the victims abdomen, prosecutors said. The victim’s firearm was holstered at the time of the argument and the shooting. The defendant fled the scene and came into contact with another co-worker, whom he told that he had just shot Alexander.

Alexander was then taken to Advocate Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn, where he was pronounced dead.

Martin was arrested by authorities three blocks from his home approximately 20 minutes after the shooting, prosecutors said.

Martin was detained and will appear in court again on March 17, authorities said.

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