What the new ESPN SP+ rankings tell us about BYU, Utah and Utah State

While there is still plenty of time until the 2024 college football season kicks off — for BYU and Utah State, the season is 100 days away, and 98 for Utah — that doesn’t stop the influx of discussion about the upcoming year.

One of the staples of preseason chatter is ESPN’s SP+ rankings, and earlier this week, Bill Connelly released his latest edition, i.e., the post-spring edition, and there are varying expectations for the three Utah FBS schools.

For the Utes, the 2024 season presents the chance to make a big impression in a new conference, the Big 12, while making a run at the expanded College Football Playoff with Cam Rising back and healthy.

For the Cougars, this year is projected to be another difficult learning season as the program adjusts to life at the power conference level.

And for the Aggies, there’s been plenty of turnover again, though perhaps less pessimism surrounds the program heading into 2024 — and a hope the school can finish in the upper half of the Mountain West.

What does Connelly’s latest SP+ rankings — which are calculated on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history — project for these three schools?

These insights give a glimpse at how Utah, BYU and Utah State are viewed on a national scale heading into the year.

As Connelly explains, “SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

Where does BYU football rank in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings?

• BYU ranks No. 67 nationally in the SP+ metrics with an overall minus-2.0 rating, a two-spot drop from the preseason SP+ rankings released in February.
• That includes BYU rating No. 63 on offense, No. 84 on defense and No. 11 on special teams.
• By comparison, the Cougars were No. 60 overall in last year’s post-spring ESPN SP+ rankings. BYU went 5-7 last season.
• The Cougars rank 12th among the new-look Big 12 Conference in the SP+ rankings, just ahead of Colorado (No. 69) and Cincinnati (No. 70) and just behind Baylor (No. 61). Only two of BYU’s conference games this season — at Houston (No. 79) and vs. Arizona State (No. 88), both in late November — come against Big 12 teams below the Cougars in the SP+ rankings.
• There are four Big 12 teams in the top 25 of the SP+ rankings: Kansas State (No. 17), Utah (No. 18), Oklahoma State (No. 20) and Arizona (No. 24). BYU plays all four this season, with only one road game at the Utes.
• BYU is ranked more than 40 spots below one of its two FBS nonconference opponents — SMU comes in at No. 23 — while the other, Wyoming, is behind the Cougars, at No. 87.
• The Big 12 is third among all FBS leagues in average SP+ ranking, behind only the SEC and Big Ten.
• BYU ranks 55th nationally in returning production at 65%, per Connelly’s numbers. That includes ranking No. 52 on offense (66%) and No. 51 on defense (64%).

Where does Utah football rank in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings?

• Utah ranks No. 18 nationally in the SP+ metrics with an overall 16.1 rating, a one-spot drop from the preseason SP+ rankings released in February.
• That includes Utah rating No. 39 on offense, No. 11 on defense and No. 34 on special teams.
• By comparison, the Utes were No. 14 overall in last year’s post-spring ESPN SP+ rankings. Utah went 8-5 last season while dealing with a litany of injuries.
• The Utes rank second among the new-look Big 12 Conference in the SP+ rankings in their first year in the league, just one spot behind Kansas State (No. 17) and ahead of Oklahoma State (No. 20) and Arizona (No. 24). Utah plays at Oklahoma State and home against Arizona in back-to-back weeks to start conference play, but avoids playing Kansas State.
• Utah is ranked well ahead of its two FBS nonconference opponents — Baylor comes in at No. 61, while Utah State is No. 101. While both Utah and Baylor are now in the same conference, that will be a non-league game.
• The Big 12 is third among all FBS leagues in average SP+ ranking, behind only the SEC and Big Ten.
• Utah ranks 43rd nationally in returning production at 66%, per Connelly’s numbers. That includes ranking No. 61 on offense (63%) and No. 33 on defense (69%).

Big 12 teams in the post-spring SP+ rankings

17. Kansas State.

18. Utah.

20. Oklahoma State.

24. Arizona.

30. Iowa State.

34. West Virginia.

36. TCU.

37. Kansas.

42. Texas Tech.

48. UCF.

61. Baylor.

67. BYU.

69. Colorado.

70. Cincinnati.

79. Houston.

88. Arizona State.

Where does Utah State football rank in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings?

• Utah State ranks No. 101 nationally in the SP+ metrics with an overall minus-11.0 rating, a six-spot drop from the preseason SP+ rankings released in February.
• That includes Utah State rating No. 49 on offense, No. 132 on defense and No. 92 on special teams.
• By comparison, the Aggies were No. 116 overall in last year’s post-spring ESPN SP+ rankings. Utah State went 6-7 last season with a bowl game loss.
• The Aggies rank eighth among Mountain West teams in the SP+ rankings, just behind Colorado State (No. 98) and Hawaii (No. 100) and slightly ahead of San Diego State (No. 14).
• Utah State’s conference opener will be against the highest-ranked MWC team in the SP+ rankings, No. 38 Boise State. The game is set for Oct. 5 in Boise.
• Utah State will play three FBS nonconference opponents this year — both Utah (No. 18) and USC (No. 21) are in the SP+ top 25, while Temple is three from the bottom at No. 132.
• The MWC is sixth among all FBS leagues in average SP+ ranking, behind fellow Group of 5 league the Sun Belt Conference and ahead of the American Athletic Conference.
• Utah State ranks 86th nationally in returning production at 57%, per Connelly’s numbers. That includes ranking No. 43 on offense (68%) and No. 110 on defense (47%).
• That’s a significant improvement over the post-spring SP+ returning production numbers last year, when Utah State ranked 127th nationally (41%).

Mountain West Conference teams in the post-spring SP+ rankings

38. Boise State.

57. Fresno State.

71. UNLV.

87. Wyoming.

92. Air Force.

98. Colorado State.

100. Hawaii.

101. Utah State.

104. San Diego State.

112. San Jose State.

121. Nevada.

131. New Mexico.