Utah
Pick Six Previews: A look into Utah’s road trip to SEC country (+ game prediction)
Estimated learn time: 5-6 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Contemporary off their highest preseason rating at school historical past, No. 7 Utah is dealt one of many hardest exams of the opening weekend.
In a uncommon Pac-12 vs. SEC matchup, the Utes journey right down to Florida for an evening sport in The Swamp. Though Florida is unranked, they recruit at a top-10 stage and have a roster full of NFL prospects.
Recreation Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance by way of Choose Six Previews)
3-year common (2019-21): Utah 68.9 (seventh) | Florida 65.2 (tenth)
2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (seventh) | Florida 53.6 (thirty first)
2022 Season: N/A
Regardless of Florida’s 6-7 file final yr, the Recreation Grader formulation nonetheless positioned them thirty first out of the 66 Energy 5 packages. It was actually a story of two seasons, as Florida took eventual SEC champion Alabama to the wire and began 4-2 with a top-20 rating, however then misplaced 5 of their remaining six FBS video games. FCS Samford dropped 52 factors on their protection and the Dan Mullen period resulted in a meltdown.
Florida with the ball
Quarterback Anthony Richardson takes over because the full-time starter after splitting reps with Emory Jones final season. Richardson is presumably the quickest quarterback in America and might rating from anyplace on the sphere.
His dynamic scrambling means might require further assets from the Utes protection, with a spy or extra zone protection. Richardson has some room for enchancment within the cross sport after a 59% completion charge and 6-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio final season.
Florida’s offensive line posted excessive grades in each my Run Push and Cross Safety metrics in 2021. Three starters return, together with O’Cyrus Torrence, who transferred in from Louisiana-Lafayette with new head coach Billy Napier. The teaching transition and new schemes make the offensive line tougher to forecast, a minimum of straight away within the season opener.
A key positional matchup might be Florida’s large receivers towards Utah’s secondary. Within the Rose Bowl, Utah’s nook depth was skinny; and whereas Florida does not have the identical first-round firepower of Ohio State’s receiver group, they’ve loads of weapons.
The highest receiver of 2021, Jacob Copeland, transferred out of Florida to Maryland, however the Gators added Arizona State’s yardage chief in Ricky Pearsall. Justin Shorter is a stable possession receiver who completed with 5 50+ yard video games over the second half of the season, and Xzavier Henderson has a top-100 billing and brings a vertical risk.
Napier’s offense at Louisiana operated primarily out of 11 personnel, or one again and one tight finish. They had been principally out of shotgun, pistol, and had considerably much less quarterback-designed runs than Mullen’s offense. We’ll see how inflexible that’s, contemplating Richardson’s spotlight means.
Utah with the ball
Utah’s 2021 offensive line ranked No. 1 in my Run Push metric, No. 2 in Cross Safety, and returns three starters from that group. The steady of working backs drew the uncommon four-way “OR” on the depth chart and contains a headliner in touchdown-machine Tavion Thomas and group chief Micah Bernard.
I count on Utah to have success within the run sport, as Florida’s line of defense has youth on the two spots round potential first-round choose Gervon Dexter.
Cameron Rising was the season-changer at quarterback after the group began 1-2 with out him; the group ranked No. 4 nationally in Recreation Grader with him because the starter.
After a number of down seasons, Florida’s secondary is getting stronger and is skilled. It is going to be a problem for the Utah receivers to realize separation, however the tight finish duo may very well be the game-changer. Each of Utah’s tight ends, Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid, positioned on my preseason All-Pac-12 groups, with Kuithe incomes a fourth group All-America spot.
Schematically, new defensive coordinator Patrick Toney is off of the Ron Roberts teaching tree (together with Baylor’s Dave Aranda) in how they attempt to confuse quarterbacks. They disguise blitzes, usually drop an finish or edge participant again into protection, and change him with a rusher from the linebacker or security stage.
Florida definitely has the athletes for this advanced scheme, however that is the season opener, and we’ll see how rapidly they put in all the pieces in spring ball and fall camp.
Recreation prediction
Napier’s first transfer was to rent an “military of staffers” to bolster the operations and recruiting. Their official team program photo is placing, as they take up nearly a whole stadium part. I believe it is a matter of time earlier than Napier has Florida harnessing the elite in-state highschool expertise and returning to the nationwide high 5 in recruiting. The medium- and long-term outlooks are robust.
However Utah catches them within the opening sport of the transition season, which can also be Napier’s first Energy 5 sport as a head coach. Conversely, Utah brings in all of the coach continuity, expertise, confidence and group identification. I picked Utah to not solely win the Pac-12 but in addition to make the 2022 playoff. Whereas this opener might be a troublesome check, search for Utah to depart SEC nation with an announcement victory.
No. 7 Utah (-2.5) 27 | Florida 20
P.S. I’m not shopping for “Humidity-Gate.” Nationwide pundits are utilizing the Gainesville humidity as the explanation to choose towards Utah. This jogs my memory of when the media picked Florida to beat Nebraska within the 1995 nationwide title, due solely to the sport being performed on grass and never turf. They had been lifeless unsuitable, and Nebraska rolled up the largest title sport blowout in school soccer historical past and is taken into account one of the best group ever.