College Football 25 simulation: Who wins when Utah State visits USC?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.

Utah State started its 2024 season with a solid warm-up game against Robert Morris last week.

This week? Bring on the No. 13 USC Trojans.

The Aggies head to LA Memorial Coliseum for a matchup where USU will be heavy underdogs.

Can Utah State show well in California?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of the game on EA Sports College Football 25, and it had positives — and expected struggles — for the Aggies.

How the simulation was set up

There were a couple ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters — with the option to adjust that if necessary in future simulations — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.

Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented, and it changed a couple things for Utah State.

After starting quarterback Spencer Petras was injured in the Aggies’ opener and his status for the USC game was questionable, I went ahead and moved Bryson Barnes into the starting QB spot for the game.

Running back Roberts Briggs was also slide down the depth chart — he suffered a season-ending injury last week — but on the CFB 25 lineup, Briggs still could theoretically get a few carries because I could only move him to third on the depth chart.

For USC, there was one roster move: pushing linebacker Mason Cobb, a former Provo High star, down the depth chart after his injury in Week 1. He is questionable for the game, but in this case, better safe than sorry (though he still ended up playing some in the game).

How did the simulation between Utah State and USC play out?

Final score: USC 45, Utah State 23

Key sequence: The Barnes-to-Jalen Royals connection was humming in the first half, and Royals caught his second touchdown pass of the day on a 28-yarder with 1:14 left until halftime to push Utah State ahead 17-14.

USC, after a slow start, jump-started its offense on the ensuing drive, though.

Woody Marks broke off a 31-yard run on third down three plays into the drive, then Miller Moss connected with the Trojans’ top wide receiver, Zachariah Branch, for a 39-yard touchdown with 26 seconds on the clock to put USC up for good.

Moss threw a beautiful ball that Branch caught in the back of the end zone for the momentum-swinging score.

How the game transpired: Things looked good early for Utah State, even after a Barnes interception on the game’s first possession.

The Aggies rebounded by taking their second drive into USC territory and converting a third down to advance inside the Trojans 30 before the possession stalled. Elliott Nimrod scored the game’s first points on a 39-yard field goal.

Following USC’s second straight three-and-out to start the game, Royals got behind the USC defense and scored on a 64-yard touchdown pass to make it 10-0 Aggies.

That score seemed to wake up the Trojans.

USC’s offense finally got on track and scored two touchdowns — a pair of Marks short scoring runs — to go ahead 14-10, which set up the wild final two minutes of the first half where each team scored a touchdown.

Utah State briefly kept it competitive in the third quarter.

After Branch snagged another touchdown grab to push the USC lead to 28-17, Royals caught a 75-yard touchdown pass — his third of the day — on Utah State’s first play of the ensuing possession to cut the lead to 28-23. Utah State went for two to try and make it a three-point game, but the run was stuffed well short of the end zone.

From there, USC enforced its will.

The Trojans methodically moved the ball and scored touchdowns on two of their next three possessions while Utah State punted twice in a row. A Barnes interception deep in Aggie territory led to the game’s final score, a 37-yard USC field goal late in the fourth quarter.

Star players: Even in a loss, Royals was a star. He finished with six catches for 261 yards and three touchdowns, scoring on touchdowns of 64, 28 and 75 yards.

Barnes threw for 338 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.

On the USC side, Moss threw for 312 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, Marks ran for 246 yards and three touchdowns and Branch caught 11 passes for 138 yards and two scores. He also had a couple nice punt returns to set up the USC offense.

Final stats: The Trojans ended the game with 553 yards, while Utah State had 417.

The Aggies’ run game was contained, putting up 79 yards, while USC was able to control the clock by rushing for 241 yards.

The Trojans also held a 2-1 advantage in turnovers.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: Other than the high passing numbers for Barnes and a painfully slow start for USC, this one seemed to be right on track with what could happen in the game.

Then again, the final result — a 22-point USC victory — seems right in line with what is expected to happen, so some of the details to get to that final really aren’t that big of a deal.

If a game like this happens, it would provide some positives for Utah State to take back to Logan.