Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, the Republican candidate for Congressional District 5, is facing new criticism following a recent report published by The Arizona Republic. 

What we know:

The article cites unidentified sources who allege Lamb engaged in racist and homophobic text exchanges and sent inappropriate and threatening messages to women. 

There are a few things working in Lamb’s favor, which are his name recognition combined with an endorsement from President Donald Trump. 

Big picture view:

Analysts said it ultimately comes down to what voters decide at the ballot box.

“People have weathered worse,” Stan Barnes said.

Barnes is a political consultant and former Republican state senator. He points to other figures, like former President Bill Clinton and current President Trump, who both faced high-profile misconduct allegations.

“The American people said, all right, but we still want to vote for him, and Mark Lamb could be in the same situation,” Barnes said.

What they’re saying:

Lamb has largely kept quiet on the issue, a strategy Barnes said can work for candidates.

“He might decide, you know what? It’s salacious, it’s unprovable,” Barnes said. “A lot of people won’t believe it, people aren’t paying attention, and name ID and Trump endorsement’s going to carry me through.”

Inquiries were made to Lamb’s campaign. They responded with a statement, saying in part: “The Arizona Republic admitted that their article was based on a 10-year-old text from a person that couldn’t be located, or might not be a real person. Not exactly what one would call quality, independent journalism.”
However, the allegations could present challenges for his path to Congress.

The other side:

“The problem for Mr. Lamb and his candidacy is that his opponent will attempt to remind voters,” Barnes said.

Lamb’s Republican opponent, Daniel Keenan, spoke out against the former sheriff following the report.

“This story only adds to a pattern of disqualifying, disgraceful, and embarrassing behavior unbecoming of a congressman,” Keenan said in part.

Dig deeper:

Noble, a political data researcher, said the accusations could hurt Lamb with moderate voters.

“There’s really no strong candidates running in that primary because he’s cleared the field,” Mike Noble said. “It’s going to hurt him with women, it’s going to hurt him with independents, self-identified moderates, those that have a high school or less education.”

In a heavily Republican district, Noble said if the accusations gain traction, it could help the opposing party.

“It could potentially be fatal for him in the general election and actually give Democrats an opening in the general election, which normally they wouldn’t,” Noble said.

What’s next:

On the Democratic side, there are four people running in the primary for Congressional District 5. The primary election is scheduled for July 21.

Gavin Newsom, California’s governor, signed legislation Wednesday that aims to shield California elections from federal interference, saying he expected Donald Trump’s administration to try to meddle in the midterms this year.

The law, which took effect immediately and came days before next Tuesday’s primary, prohibits any person – including federal agents – from accessing voter rolls or election technology without a court order. Law enforcement officers are restricted from disrupting election workers, except in public safety emergencies.

Trump administration officials so far have said they have no plans to send immigration agents to polling locations across the US, a concern raised this year by several Democratic secretaries of state. But Newsom warned “we have to be prepared for everything” because “there’s no rules any more with the Trump administration”.

Voting is already under way in California’s closely watched primary for governor, where a crowded field of Democrats and two viable Republicans are vying for just two spots on the November ballot. Under the state’s open primary system, only the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Newsom, who cannot seek a third term, said the election law is a response to “legitimate anxiety” about Trump’s tactics, primarily in Democratic-led states, where the president has deployed federal agents over the objections of local leaders. The Democratic governor warned against underestimating someone who “doesn’t believe in free and fair elections”.

“I expect the worst with Trump because he’s done the worst,” he said at a news conference.

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told the Associated Press later Wednesday that Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections.

“Instead of levying false attacks at the President, Newscum should look in the mirror,” she said in a statement, using Trump’s derogatory nickname for Newsom.

In an interview last year with Vanity Fair, Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, knocked down the idea that Trump would deploy the military to suppress voting, saying it was “categorically false”.

The California law also makes it a crime to knowingly take voted ballots out of the custody of election officials.

Earlier this year, the FBI under Trump seized the 2020 general election ballots from Georgia’s most populous county, which is heavily Democratic and has long been at the center of the president’s false claims that fraud cost him the race. The FBI and justice department also have sought records from previous elections in the largest counties in Arizona and Michigan.

Trump triggered a national redistricting frenzy ahead of the midterms when he urged Republicans in Texas and elsewhere to redraw their US House districts to help the party retain control of the closely divided chamber. Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Tennessee also have enacted new maps that could benefit Republicans, and Louisiana is expected to be next.

Republicans so far think they could gain as many as 14 seats from redistricting in November, while Democrats think they could gain six in California and Utah.