SEATTLE – Strong winds are sticking around Western Washington into Christmas Eve, but Christmas Day is looking quiet.

There’s a low chance of high-impact windstorms around the region tomorrow. There’s still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the wind speeds due to extreme differences in the various weather models.

Be prepared for possible tree damage and power outages by Wednesday evening. Otherwise, you can plan on occasional scattered lowland rain and mountain snow tomorrow.

Possible windstorm on Christmas Eve

What’s next:

There’s a high wind watch posted for many locations around Western Washington for Wednesday morning to evening. The first round of winds is likely to happen in the morning (however, stick with us for updates as to the timing) with east/northeast gusts to 30 mph.

In the morning, the strongest winds will likely be focused over the Cascade gaps (e.g. North Bend and Enumclaw).

By the afternoon, there’s a chance for more forceful winds — this time, coming from the south. The second period of winds will have a higher impact with gusts potentially reaching 50-60 mph. Should this forecast pan out, there would be widespread tree damage and power outages.

Big picture view:

However, it’s important to note that the various weather models we analyze are presenting a broad range of possible outcomes on Christmas Eve. It’s rare to have this level of uncertainty about a forecast barely 24 hours in advance. Some suggest an intense windstorm while others indicate winds would barely reach 10 mph. 

Keep in mind: there’s an elevated ‘bust potential’ for this forecast — meaning, the winds could be a dud, barely blowing — or gusts could be highly damaging. I recommend preparing for the worst-case scenario and being pleasantly surprised if conditions are quieter.

What you can do:

As a meteorologist, this is what I recommend you do with high winds possible: 

• Don’t spend time outside during this windstorm if at all possible (in the event that weak trees or tree branches fall).
• Limit time on the roads during the peak of the in case trees fall! With this particular windstorm, I’d recommend traveling in the morning (unless the timing changes) before winds peak in the afternoon and early evening.
• First, make sure you keep your phone charged in the event of a power outage.
• You can also download the FOX Local app on your phone so you can watch our weather coverage and forecast.  Remember to keep the fridge shut during a power outage to maintain the cool air there.

The weather models are split as to the path of this storm: the impacts of this system depend on where it moves. You better believe our weather team will be watching how things develop. If the low pressure moves over the coast and the Olympic Peninsula, the winds would be more damaging. However, if it moves into Eastern Washington, the winds would likely be weaker.

This storm serves as a reminder as to the importance of humans as meteorologists — because most weather apps can’t express the range of possible outcomes and various scenarios.

River flood threat decreasing

Except for the Skokomish River in Mason County, the threat of river flooding is over this week. Even the risk of river flooding next week has decreased substantially. Stay tuned in case anything changes!

There may be minor coastal flooding at times this week.

Local perspective:

Beyond the winds on Christmas Eve, you can expect scattered lowland rain and occasional minor mountain snow.

On Christmas Day itself, the morning will be about the aftermath of any tree damage and outages. Quieter weather is expected on Christmas.

Take good care,

Meteorologist Abby Acone

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