Seattle Mariners Trade-a-Day: JT Brubaker

The Mariners’ rotation has a difficulty with consistency. Except for Logan Gilbert, Seattle’s starters have all handled sustained intervals of struggles. 

Nowhere is that this inconsistency felt greater than when Chris Flexen takes the mound. We have seen Flexen dazzle at instances, together with in opposition to playoff lineups just like the Rays and Astros. He is additionally fizzled in opposition to lesser opponents just like the Orioles, Crimson Sox and Phillies.

After all, Flexen is not the one pitcher who has struggled. Employees ace Robbie Ray hasn’t discovered a lot consistency inning to inning, not to mention sport to sport. This challenge hampers the Mariners’ efforts to maintain profitable streaks and in addition locations an pointless burden on the crew’s bullpen, which has considerably regressed from 2021 to 2022.

We all know that common supervisor Jerry Dipoto desires so as to add a beginning pitcher. However he is not searching for a No. 5 arm. He has constantly said that he desires so as to add an arm that “would pitch nearer to the highest of the rotation than the underside.”

The difficulty with these sorts of arms is that they are extraordinarily costly to amass. José Berríos price the Blue Jays two, top-100 prospects final summer time. This yr, there are a number of choices that match that mould, with Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas possible costing Seattle one thing within the neighborhood of Noelvi Marte and Emerson Hancock.

That kind of value is hard to swallow, significantly when it appears unlikely that 2022 will end in a deep playoff run. Each arms would return in 2023, however the stress to win huge can be immense in 2023 earlier than both participant departed in free company. There may be clearly some extent the place you make trades like that, however the Mariners is probably not there fairly but. Maybe the Mariners might attempt to discover the subsequent Castillo or Montas and save themselves some on the acquisition price?

One title which may verify some packing containers is Pirates right-hander JT Brubaker. Whereas actually not in the identical tier as the larger names, Brubaker does possess some attention-grabbing numbers and the stuff suggests there might be one other gear in his sport. 

At present, Brubaker has posted a 4.70 ERA and three.48 FIP. He misses bats, averaging 9.44 Ok/9 and, whereas his 4.34 BB/9 is excessive, his profession mark of three.20 leaves loads of room for optimism. 

Brubaker is a sinker/slider arm, however he does combine in an honest curve that can generate swings and misses. Because of the strikeouts, he is not a groundball-heavy sinkerballer, however his 43% groundball fee does assist. He does not get a lot vertical motion out of his repertoire, however he does have elite horizontal motion on his sinker and four-seam fastball. 

As of now, Brubaker is an efficient No. 4 who will miss bats however makes a speciality of avoiding onerous contact, rating within the 77th percentile in hard-hit share. He isn’t but the arm Dipoto craves, however there appears to be potential to get there. Brubaker will not even be arbitration-eligible till this winter and he is simply 28 years outdated. He will not be low-cost, however he is additionally unlikely to require the identical commerce price as Montas or Castillo.

What might a deal for Brubaker appear like? There have been reviews earlier this winter that the Pirates have been searching for younger beginning pitching and the title Emerson Hancock was even dropped. The Mariners might desire to maintain Hancock, nevertheless it is not a ridiculous ask from Pittsburgh. There are numerous components concerned in such a deal, together with how the Mariners really feel about not solely Brubaker’s upside, however how they worth Hancock, Levi Stoudt and Adam Macko versus how the Pirates worth them.

For simplicity’s sake, a Hancock-for-Brubaker deal might make numerous sense for each side (assuming Hancock stays wholesome and pitches properly). However a deal of Adam Macko and Lázaro Montes or Alberto Rodríguez might begin a dialog. One factor to remember: the Pirates might be serious about a number of the younger main leaguers on the Mariners’ roster like Taylor Trammell, Kyle Lewis or Abraham Toro. 

Seattle and Pittsburgh line up properly in commerce talks and, with Dipoto on the helm, you’ll be able to’t rule out an even bigger deal that entails a number of huge leaguers altering arms. However on the finish of the day, Brubaker is an improve to Flexen and presents the next ground than each Marco Gonzales and George Kirby.