Seattle, WA
Seahawks have been one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL
The Seattle Seahawks are 8-5, leading the NFC West, and they’re also one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL.
NFL data analyst Tom Bliss has been charting the net win probability added through “luck” plays all season. This includes opposition dropped interceptions (as in, passes thrown by a quarterback that were dropped by the other team), opposition dropped passes, opposition field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries by either team.
As of Week 14, the Seahawks rank 29th in favorable luck.
Luck dashboard thru week 14.
Most impactful plays:
– TEN dropped pass in end zone on 4th down with 1:15 left in Q4 (+61.6% for JAX)
– CAR dropped pass with 0:52 left in Q4 (+31.2% for PHI)
– MIA made 52-yd FG with 0:12 left in Q4 (-22.4% for NYJ) pic.twitter.com/vVLmngfIeP— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) December 10, 2024
This is a flip from last season, when the Seahawks were near the top of the luck charts.
What’s been hurting the Seahawks the most? Turnover luck. Geno Smith has thrown 12 interceptions, but he’s had a few tipped passes go into the arms of defensive players. If you look at the Turnover Worthy Plays on PFF, Geno’s TWP% is just 2.1%, so passes deemed “interceptable” have basically all been picked. Can you count how many dropped would-be interceptions Smith has had this year? It can’t be a high number.
Dropped passes and missed field goals/extra points have favored the Seahawks, but nothing has been more damaging to Seattle than fumble luck. They’ve forced 12 fumbles and only recovered four while losing seven of their own fumbles. Several of the fumbles recovered on offense were wayward Connor Williams snaps or Geno Smith dropping the ball and immediately picking it up.
One of the biggest moments against the Seahawks was Josh Allen’s kicked-forward fumble in Week 8, turning what would’ve been a turnover and another Seattle possession inside Buffalo territory into an eventual Bills touchdown.
Luck dashboard thru week 8.
Most impactful plays:
– Dropped interception by BAL with 1:08 in Q4 (+31.7% for CLE)
– Dropped pass by BAL with 9:30 left in Q4 (+19.8% for CLE)
– BUF recovers own fumble in Q2 vs SEA (+14.5% for BUF, -14.5% for SEA) pic.twitter.com/4iOPDRKJ9B— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) October 29, 2024
Green Bay has only lost four fumbles on the season, although one came against the Detroit Lions last week from Christian Watson. However, the opportunistic Packers defense has recovered 12 fumbles, the second-most in the NFL.
I’m of the belief that ball security is generally not luck. Fumble recoveries are overwhelmingly luck, and the Seahawks have not been able to be on the plus side of recovering their own fumbles or getting their opposition’s.
If that changes in Seattle’s favor over the past few weeks, perhaps that’ll be a key difference between a playoff berth and sitting home after Week 18.
Seattle, WA
WEST SEATTLE WEATHER: Warm day, but far below record
Thanks to Carrie Brown for the westward view of our Saturday night sunset. The high today hit 68 at the airport – eight degrees above normal – but nowhere near the record for this date, which was 89 degrees back in 2016. The forecast suggests two more days of partly sunny, almost-70-degree weather, before the chance of rain returns.
Seattle, WA
Mets place former Seattle Mariners 2B/DH Jorge Polanco on IL
CHICAGO (AP) — The struggling New York Mets placed former Seattle Mariners second baseman/designated hitter Jorge Polanco on the 10-day injured list on Saturday with a right wrist contusion.
Mariners Injury Update: Latest on Robles, Vargas and more
The move was made retroactive to Wednesday, a day after Polanco went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts in a 2-1 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 32-year-old Polanco is batting .179 (10 for 56) with a homer and two RBIs in his first season with New York, which has lost nine straight.
“When doctors first took a look at him, it looked like he got hit by a pitch when he didn’t,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “In talking to him, it was just a couple of swings that he took that night. … He didn’t think much of it, but just got worse the following day.
“So you just got to let it calm down a little bit and then we’ll go from there. But we don’t have a timetable for how long this is going to last.”
Polanco, who signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the Mets in December, also has been dealing with an ankle issue.
“He was trending in the right direction,” Mendoza said of the ankle injury. “It’s definitely going to help, obviously now with him being shut down. But the biggest thing now is that we’ve got to take care of that wrist.”
Polanco spent the previous two seasons with the Mariners, who acquired him in a February 2024 trade with the Minnesota Twins.
Polanco struggled during his first season with Seattle in 2024, hitting just .213 with 16 homers in 118 games while playing through a knee injury that didn’t become public knowledge until after the season.
But after the Mariners somewhat surprisingly brought him back for a one-year contract in 2025, Polanco rebounded to hit .265 with 26 homers and an .821 OPS in 138 games last season. He then added three homers during Seattle’s playoff run, along with a 15th-inning walkoff single in Game 5 of the American League Division Series that sent the Mariners to their first ALCS in 24 years.
Seattle Sports staff made additions to this post.
Mariners RHP Bryce Miller to begin rehab assignment
Seattle, WA
Brandon Nimmo hits leadoff homer, Jacob deGrom works 4 scoreless as Rangers beat Seattle Mariners 5-0
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – APRIL 17: Corey Seager #5 of the Texas Rangers tags out Dominic Canzone #8 of the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park on April 17, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
SEATTLE – Brandon Nimmo hit a leadoff home run, Jacob deGrom threw four shutout innings and Gavin Collyer earned his first career win as the Texas Rangers beat the Seattle Mariners 5-0 on Friday night.
Seattle lost its fourth straight game, and was shut out for the fourth time in 21 games, falling to 8-13. The Mariners were shut out six times during the 2025 season. Texas won its third straight game.
Nimmo led off the game with a 372-foot shot to right field off Mariners starter Logan Gilbert (1-3). It was Nimmo’s 16th career leadoff homer and second of the season. He also hit a leadoff home run on April 11 in a 6-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
DeGrom effectively maneuvered through Seattle’s lineup, and worked out of a one out, bases-loaded jam in the first inning. The two-time Cy Young Award winner recorded two of his three strikeouts after walking Josh Naylor to load the bases. Randy Arozarena fanned on a curveball, and Luke Raley swung through a fastball.
Texas added to its lead after Nimmo’s homer. Wyatt Langford’s single to left scored Corey Seager, who led off the third inning with a double. The Rangers stretched the lead to 3-0 on an RBI single from Jake Burger in the seventh.
The Mariners’ best scoring chance came in the sixth after Collyer (1-0), who worked 1 1/3 scoreless innings, left the game.
J.P. Crawford singled to left off Tyler Alexander with two out, and Mariners third base coach Carlos Cardoza sent Naylor from second base, but he was thrown out by Langford.
Texas added two more runs in the ninth on a sacrifice fly by Andrew McCutchen and an RBI double by Josh Jung.
Seattle third baseman Brendan Donovan left the game early due to a left hip issue.
Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller, who started the year on the injured list with a left oblique injury, was at T-Mobile Park for the first time this season. He will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday.
Up next
Mariners RHP George Kirby (2-2, 3.25) will face Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi (2-2, 5.40) on Saturday afternoon.
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