The Minnesota Twins (45-37) and Seattle Mariners (47-37) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 3-2
The Mariners exacted a little revenge for dropping 3 of 4 games in Minnesota May 6-9, opening this series with a 3-2 win as a moderate favorite (-126) Friday night as the Under (7) easily connected.
The Twins offense was cooled off, as Minnesota entered play with 115 runs scored in the previous 17 outings, or 6.8 runs per game. It had scored 3 or more runs in 15 of those 17 games while cashing the Over at an 8-3 clip in the previous 11 contests.
Minnesota RHP Pablo Lopez took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start against the Athletics, twirling 8 scoreless innings while matching a career high with 14 strikeouts.
The Mariners improved to 18-9 in 1-run games with the 3-2 win Friday. That’s the most wins in the majors in games decided by a single run, with the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays next best with 16 one-run wins.
Twins at Mariners projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Bryce Miller
Lopez (7-6, 5.11 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 88 innings.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 14 K (102 pitches) in 3-0 victory at Oakland A’s Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 4-3, 5.09 ERA (46 IP, 26 ER), 1.07 WHIP, .209 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 9 HR, 13 BB, 58 K in 8 starts
- 2024 vs. Mariners: 1-0, 1.42 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 1 start, an 11-1 home win May 9
- Career vs. Mariners: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 3 HR, 12.3 K/9 in 3 starts
Miller (6-6, 3.90 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 92 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 6-4 setback at Miami Marlins Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 4-2, 1.82 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.83 WHIP, .159 OBA, 3 HR, 14 BB, 59 K in 8 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 1-0, 9.53 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 8 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 1 start, an 8-7 road win July 26, 2023
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Twins at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:12 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Twins at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 3, Twins 2
Moneyline
The MARINERS (+100) are a good bet to run it back by the same score as Friday’s series opener.
While Lopez is coming off a huge performance last time out, it was also against the Athletics. He is pitching with a lot of confidence, though, and he’ll give the Twins (-120) a chance.
However, Miller has been money at home. He has stark splits on the road and at T-Mobile Park, posting a 6.28 ERA in 43 IP in 8 road starts and a 1.82 ERA in 49 1/3 IP in 8 home outings.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mariners +1.5 (-165) are a little too expensive if you would prefer some insurance and just cannot back Seattle straight up for whatever reason.
AVOID.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the way to go, as Lopez and Miller should produce plenty of donuts.
The Under is now 5-1-1 in the past 7 games at T-Mobile Park for the M’s following Friday’s series opener.
The Over is 6-2 in the past 8 for the Twins, but the Under is 2-1 in the past 3 road starts for Lopez.
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