Facing the best pitcher in the world over the past 24 months is not ideal when faced with a winner-take-all game. That’s the situation the Seattle Mariners are in, however, with Tarik Skubal on the hill Friday. This will be their fourth matchup against the Detroit Tigers’ ace, needing to find a way to go 4-0 in those games. Skubal’s playoff numbers are brilliant, in keeping with his regular season, but he’s been leaned on more than ever before this season, and unless Seattle ambushes him devastatingly out the gates, the southpaw from Seattle U will surpass his career-high for innings pitched on Friday. What will it take for the M’s to overcome Skubal a fourth time?
Seattle, WA
How do the Seattle Mariners beat Tarik Skubal for a 4th time?
Win one came in early April, home in Seattle, with the second during Seattle’s obliteration of the Detroit Tigers just before the All-Star Break. The April game, Seattle’s top of the order looked fairly familiar, but the six through eight were all absent in October.
Baseball Savant
Lefty-masher Dylan Moore did just that, starting at third and providing the thump. Both Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena scalded the ball, and Seattle’s patient approach led to eight punchouts but also three walks along with six hits. Skubal’s approach on the day was not surprising, with him attacking Seattle up in the zone with four-seamers, 43 of his 93 pitches being those heaters. He added 11 sinkers, but it’s notable that Skubal averaged 96.7-97.1 mph on those heaters in April. Of note, the weather that day was just 50 degrees, with the roof closed due to the cold and wet, conditions likely to be quite similar to Friday night’s 70% chance of rain and mid-50s forecast.
If Skubal had showcased the same juice he’d had against Cleveland in the Wild Card round, it would’ve been a more daunting task. Skubal threw just six sliders and three curveballs on the day, roughly in keeping with his year-long usage (12% and 3%, respectively). His preeminent secondary was the 30 changeups he wove, which actually became Skubal’s foremost pitch overall by usage on the season at 31%. Both the four-seam and changeup were highly effective, getting whiffs nearly half the time hitters swung, but the M’s scalded the changeup when they did get ahold of it.
The pitch mix is pertinent, because when he took on Seattle again in July, the M’s lineup was largely familiar, but Skubal’s approach shifted.
Looking to outdo his initial outing, Skubal threw a significantly different medley, to even less success. Hurling 29 changeups in his 87 pitches, Skubal averaged essentially identical velocity on his heater and could not create as much swing and miss. His sinker was the ~main heater in this outing, 23 to 21 in terms of sinkers vs. four-seamers, and he added 13 sliders and just a single curveball.
Following a herculean effort in the Wild Card round that saw him throw a career-high 107 pitches, 43 of which were 98+ mph, 12 of which were 100+ mph, there may have been an element of fatigue for Skubal. Still, he was on normal rest Sunday against the M’s, and will be once more Friday, as will Luis Castillo, with George Kirby having an additional fifth day. On Sunday we saw a Skubal still above his season averages, sitting 98.1 mph on his fastballs but down from the 99.1 average he’d mustered against the Guardians.
In that Sunday outing, Skubal re-jiggered his pitch mix again, throwing his most even split of all four primary pitches (no curveballs) to date, with over half of his 97 offerings being heaters (37 four-seams, 22 sinkers). In particular, he attacked the lineup’s only two lefties – Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford, with sinkers, using his four-seam just once against them. One of the great challenges Seattle faces is that, like Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller (as well as George Kirby in years past), Skubal lives in the strike zone. His stuff is so potent that he can get away with it, and thereby avoid walks. Indeed, Skubal’s lone free pass last night gives him now 21 of his 33 starts this year with one or fewer bases on balls allowed. Cleveland and Seattle are the only teams to have forced multiple free passes from the presumed repeat Cy Young.
It’s too much to hope for Skubal to be fatigued, as the mighty lefty will have adrenaline pumping in the early innings at minimum. What Seattle will be hoping to do, however, is continue an impressive trend of avoiding chasing against Skubal. Through their first three games, Seattle has swung at pitches out of the zone 35.1% (April), 23.8% (July), and 33% (October) of the time against Skubal. It’s a meaningful edge on a pitcher whose overall chase rate is 37.6%. Over the course of the game, that’s maybe only a handful of pitches, but the outcomes of playoff games hinge on those sorts of advantages. Seattle’s ability to attack Skubal in the zone, and let him dig a hole outside of it, relative to their opponents, is what may give them a chance to bury him for good this fall.
It’s likely Skubal understood this, fading his changeup usage despite it being his best pitch (and one of the best in the sport) on Sunday in hopes of putting the M’s on the back foot. If I were calling pitches for him, I’d likely lean on the changeup more forcefully regardless on Friday night, as Seattle’s ability to make contact with the sinker and four-seam is not as dangerous on a chilly, wet, October night in T-Mobile Park. For Seattle, an effort to force Skubal into deeper counts is likely the best approach, aggressive early, with defensive, foul-ball swings and takes at the two-strike mark. Detroit’s beleaguered bullpen is fundamentally a weaker unit than Seattle’s – and certainly than Skubal himself – no matter what occurred on Wednesday. It all only matters so much, ultimately – baseball is a game easiest analyzed in the aggregate, with sample sizes of immense heft. On one night in October, anything is possible.
Seattle, WA
VIDEO: Mayor Wilson proposes renewing, expanding Seattle Transit Measure by doubling the sales-tax percentage that funds it.
Through the end of this year, 0.15% of the sales tax you pay funds the voter-approved Seattle Transit Measure. That would double to 0.30% if the City Council and Seattle voters approve the renewal/expansion that Mayor Katie Wilson officially introduced this afternoon. She said it’ll make living in Seattle more affordable by enabling more people to “live car-free or car-light.” She acknowledged that raising the sales tax isn’t ideal but noted that it’s one of the few revenue-raising tools available under state law. Besides paying for more transit – 280,000 additional Metro bus trips a year, 100,000 more than the current measure funds – it also would pay for 22,000 free ORCA transit passes, more than double what the city provides now, said acting SDOT director Angela Brady during the announcement event at City Hall. The passes are now available to Seattle Promise scholars, low-income Seattle Preschool Program families, and Seattle Housing Authority residents. The measure’s renewal/expansion would also make those passes available to Housing Choice Voucher participants.
The mayor’s announcement says the Transit Measure isn’t just about buses: It also would “support the design and delivery of Sound Transit’s West Seattle Link Extension, Ballard Link Extension, and Graham Street Station.” The 0.30% sales tax would generate an estimated $138 million average per year for the 10 years of this measure, which is proposed to go to voters in November. Council review starts this Thursday and will be led by District 1 City Councilmember Rob Saka, who chairs the council committee that oversees transportation. We’ll add the specific text of the proposal when we get it; the slide deck for Thursday’s council meeting is now available, and we’ll add some highlights from that soon.
SEATTLE — With less than two weeks before Seattle hosts matches during the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup, Seattle City Council Public Safety Committee Chair Bob Kettle is escalating his criticism of Mayor Katie Wilson’s decision not to activate newly installed CCTV cameras in the Stadium District and suggesting she is violating established law.
In a sharply worded letter sent Monday, Kettle argues that the mayor’s decision to pause activation of the city’s Technology-Assisted Public Safety Pilot Program is inconsistent with city law and the ordinances approved by the Seattle City Council.
RELATED | Mayor Wilson hosts discussion on surveillance and security, takes questions from public
“I believe that she is not operating according to the ordinances, the law with respect to the stadium ordinances, and her duties under the charter,” Kettle said in an interview on Tuesday.
The dispute centers on 22 CCTV cameras that have already been installed in and around Seattle’s Stadium District but remain inactive as city leaders debate privacy concerns and the circumstances under which the system should be used.
Kettle said the approaching World Cup is what prompted him to send the letter.
“Basically, we’re less than two weeks out from the World Cup, and we’re not ready,” Kettle said. “We have capacity with these stadium cameras, they’re up, they’re installed, but they’re not turned on.”
In his letter, Kettle argues that the council already approved the surveillance technology through council-approved ordinances, specifically outlining the limited circumstances under which the program can be paused.
According to Kettle, those conditions include situations where the city is compelled to release camera data for civil immigration enforcement, gender-affirming care investigations, or reproductive healthcare matters, or when city leaders determine the technology is being used for those purposes.
RELATED | City leaders say Seattle ready for World Cup, despite concerns with surveillance, drones
“Neither condition has occurred that would merit a temporary program pause,” Kettle wrote.
The councilmember contends that the Seattle Municipal Code and the approved surveillance impact report provide no authority for the mayor to indefinitely delay the program’s implementation beyond those specified exceptions.
The mayor’s office has defended its position, saying activation decisions will be guided by public safety experts and intelligence assessments ahead of the World Cup.
“Mayor Wilson continues to consult public safety officials regarding circumstances that might warrant use of the expanded set of cameras during the FIFA World Cup,” the mayor’s office said in a previous statement. “We appreciate councilmembers’ perspectives, and those will be part of ongoing discussions.”
The previous statement continued:
“With regard to credible threats: Identifying a credible threat involves multiple experts from federal, state, and local agencies monitoring and assessing various streams of information. In collaboration with one another, they weigh incoming intelligence and jointly recommend whether to elevate security operations. Mayor Wilson’s decision whether to activate the Stadium District cameras will be informed by this group’s recommendation.”
The mayor’s office has been asked if there is a change in perspective given Kettle’s letter. In a new statement obtained by KOMO News on Tuesday, the mayor’s office said Wilson’s position remains “unchanged.”
“Per our legal review, we believe council has the authority to pause the use of adopted surveillance technology but cannot require its use,” the mayor’s office said in Tuesday’s statement. “The Mayor is ensuring that our use of surveillance technology is protective of civil rights, liberties, and privacy and provides sufficient data privacy safeguards. The Mayor has a duty to make sure our use of these technologies is responsible.”
Kettle argues that waiting for a specific threat before activating the cameras misunderstands modern security planning.
SEE ALSO | Seattle mayor’s verbal missteps prompt national and viral attention, leadership questions
“There are credible concerns,” Kettle said, citing worries about drones and other security issues surrounding a major international event.
He pointed to examples, including the 1996 Atlanta Olympic bombing and the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, arguing that public officials often do not receive advance warning before attacks occur.
“This idea that you’re going to get a credible threat warning is not right. It’s not the professional standard,” Kettle said. “The 22 cameras are installed, they’re ready to go, they just need to be turned on.”
Opponents of the camera expansion have raised concerns that footage could potentially be sought by federal immigration authorities or used in ways that conflict with Seattle’s sanctuary city policies.
Kettle dismissed those concerns, arguing that the council built extensive safeguards into the legislation governing the cameras.
“We don’t have facial recognition,” Kettle said, noting the city established restrictions and oversight measures as part of the technology program.
He also argued that federal agencies have their own surveillance capabilities and do not need Seattle’s camera network to conduct enforcement operations.
Kettle said he sought legal guidance before sending the letter and believes the mayor’s decision is inconsistent with the ordinances governing the program.
“I asked the question, if Mayor Harrell had to do all this in terms of ordinances, why is it that Mayor Wilson does not?” Kettle said. He said attorneys reviewing the issue identified concerns centered on the language governing when the program may be “paused.”
While Kettle stopped short of calling for legal action against the mayor, he said he wanted to publicly highlight what he views as a conflict between the administration’s actions and council-approved law.
“Her move related to the pause is not right, and essentially a violation,” Kettle said.
Kettle said Seattle is the only one of the 11 World Cup host cities that does not have its full camera system operational and warned that the city is running out of time.
“We have to take action now to get ourselves ready for the World Cup,” he said. “That is ensuring that we have all the pieces in place, and that we’re using the capacities that we have to their full ability.”
Kettle said he was scheduled to meet with members of the mayor’s team on Tuesday and hopes a resolution can be reached before the first World Cup matches arrive in Seattle.
Seattle, WA
Melinda French Gates is done ‘cheering on Seattle from the sidelines’ — she’s buying into the bet to bring the Sonics back | Fortune
Melinda French Gates, a billionaire philanthropist and businesswoman, will join the Seattle Kraken as a minority investor, pending NHL approval.
French Gates, 61, is the ex-wife of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. She and her $30 billion net worth, according to Forbes, join an ownership group headlined by majority owner and managing partner Samantha Holloway, as well as investors David Wright, Andy Jassy and longtime Hollywood producer Jerry Bruckheimer.
“As a longtime Seattle resident, it means a lot to me to have the chance to make this investment in our city and its future,” French Gates said in a statement. “I’m a big believer in the power of sports, and after many years of cheering on Seattle from the sidelines, I’m excited to have an even deeper connection to the Seattle sports community.”
French Gates has never previously had an ownership stake in a major professional sports franchise. She will do so at a time when the Kraken ownership group is positioning itself to own an NBA franchise should the NBA return to the Emerald City for the first time since the SuperSonics were relocated to Oklahoma City nearly 20 years ago.
In March, the Kraken ownership group announced the creation of One Roof Sports and Entertainment, which serves as the umbrella brand of the organization to “oversee a growing portfolio of properties and fuel new opportunities.” At the time, Holloway announced that One Roof would pursue an NBA team in Seattle, should the league move forward with expansion.
Holloway also announced in March that the group had entered an agreement to purchase additional equity in Climate Pledge Arena from Oak View Group, and would make the organization the majority owner of the building. OVG has retained a minority stake.
French Gates, who grew up in Dallas and received a bachelor’s degree in computer science and economics, as well as an MBA from Duke, currently heads Pivotal, a group of organizations she founded to accelerate the pace of social progress for women and young people in the United States and around the world.
French Gates previously founded and co-chaired the Gates Foundation, the world’s largest philanthropy.
“I am excited to welcome Melinda to our ownership group,” Holloway said in a statement. “Melinda is an impressive business leader, philanthropist and importantly, a Seattle sports fan. We share many of the same values, including a deep commitment to Seattle and a belief in building organizations that create lasting impact.”
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