FTR’s first 2023 mock draft: The Seahawks address the trenches

The Seattle Seahawks have 5 picks within the first three rounds of this yr’s NFL Draft, which makes doing mock drafts a lot extra enjoyable than, oh, say . . . 2021, when the Seahawks had a complete of three picks in all the draft.

To be truthful, I did a whole bunch of mock drafts in 2021; I simply didn’t write about them.

This yr although, I could share a couple of, beginning with #233.

(not a typo – – and, sure, the title says that is my first mock draft . . . as a result of it’s the primary one which I’m writing an article about)

Some floor guidelines / background:

• PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator
• Default settings
• No trades
• I’m solely making picks for Seattle; the remaining is the AI (or no matter PFF makes use of of their sim)

Earlier than diving into the outcomes of Mock Draft #233, let’s check out how the Seahawks are positioned when in comparison with a few of their closest buddies . . .

The NFC West

As issues stand now, solely two of the 4 NFC West groups have an opportunity to enhance in Spherical 1: the Arizona Cardinals have the third general choice (by advantage of sucking this yr their 4-13 file) whereas the Seahawks have the Fifth general choice (courtesy of the Russell Wilson commerce) in addition to their native choose at #20.

The Los Angeles Rams’ choose (#6 general) belongs to the Detroit Lions courtesy of the Matthew Stafford / Jared Goff commerce. By the way, Goff’s choice in 2016 was the final time the Rams used a primary spherical choose on a participant in that yr’s draft.

In the meantime, the San Francisco 49ers’ 2023 first spherical choose wins the ‘Sizzling Potato’ award because it was (1) despatched to the Miami Dolphins as a part of the commerce that landed them Trey Lance, (2) despatched to the Denver Broncos within the Bradley Chubb commerce on the commerce deadline, and (3) despatched to the New Orleans Saints as a part of the agreed upon compensation when the Broncos signed Sean Payton as their new head coach.

Increasing the view to the primary three rounds, the NFC West picks appear like this (in line with the PFF simulator):

• Arizona: #3, #34, #66, #96*
• Los Angeles: #36, #69
• San Francisco: #99*, #101*, #102*
• Seattle: #5, #20, #37, #51, #83

* denotes compensatory choices on the finish of the third spherical

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Preamble apart, let’s soar into the picks!

Spherical One

The primary 4 gamers off the board have been:

With the Fifth choose within the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks choose Defensive Deal with Jalen Carter, Georgia.

In my view, that is the perfect situation for the Seahawks.

Is it possible that Carter falls to the Seahawks at #5? Most likely not. However as a current Discipline Gulls article famous, The Ringer’s Danny Kelly mocked the identical choose at #5 a couple of days in the past.

Kelly’s mock had three QBs going within the high 4, which looks as if the extra possible situation for Carter to slip to #5. However there’s been a whole lot of web ink spilled concerning the Bears and Tyree Wilson, so . . . who is aware of.

For what it’s price, PFF’s simulator (with the default settings) has Carter obtainable at #5 about 20% of the time.

Full transparency: If Jalen Carter and Will Anderson are each off the board, I might completely look to maneuver off of #5 as these are the one 2 gamers I can see the Seahawks taking that top . . . until they find yourself needing a QB, however that’s a narrative for one more day.

Right here, right this moment, on this mock draft, the Seahawks land the proper participant to kick-start their defensive turnaround in 2023 (and past).

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The subsequent 14 picks are the standard mixture of D-linemen, Offensive Tackles, Quarterbacks, Wideouts, and Cornerbacks.

Will Levis and Anthony Richardson go back-to-back to the QB-needy Atlanta Falcons (#8) and much more QB-needy Carolina Panthers (#9) after the Raiders surprisingly take OT Peter Skoronski at #7.

Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy goes to the Detroit Lions at #6, and TCU WR Quentin Johnston rounds out the Prime 10 with the Philadelphia Eagles utilizing the choose they obtained from the Saints to bolster their already-dangerous receiver group.

Offensive Tackles come off the board at #11 and #13, to the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets, respectively.

Cornerbacks go twelfth, seventeenth, and 18th (Texans, Steelers, Lions).

The New England Patriots take Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness at #14, the Inexperienced Bay Packers take Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer at #15, and the staff in Washington D.C. takes Alabama Security Brian Department at #16.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seize a possible Seattle goal with their choice of Baylor DT Siaki Ika at #19, and . . .

Seattle is on the clock with their native choose in Spherical 1.

Spherical One, Decide Two

Admittedly, I’ve an unhealthy obsession with Texas RB Bijan Robinson and actively dream about Seattle choosing probably the most dynamic participant within the draft and pairing him with Kenneth Walker III for years to return.

Robinson is commonly obtainable at #20 on the PFF simulator, and I seize him at the least 75% of the time. Many of the remaining 25% occurs after I choose Jalen Carter at #5 as a result of then I normally give in to the temptation to go the symmetry route and pair Carter together with his school teammate, Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith.

On this draft although, obsession and symmetry be damned as a result of there’s an obtainable participant that I completely can not refuse drafting at this level within the draft . . .

With the twentieth choose within the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks choose Defensive Deal with Bryan Bresee, Clemson.

Sure, that’s back-to-back picks on the identical place however right here’s the entire record of inside D-linemen that Seattle at present has beneath contract for 2023:

• Shelby Harris – turns 32 in August; $12.21M cap hit in 2023; UFA in 2024
• Al Woods – turns 36 in March; $5.42M cap hit in 2023; UFA in 2024
• Quinton Jefferson – turns 30 in March; $6.485M cap hit in 2023; UFA in 2024
• Bryan Mone – suffered a knee damage in mid-December; completed the season on IR
• Tyreke Smith – R5 choose in 2022; spent all the season on IR
• Jarrod Hewitt – 2021 UDFA; spent the 2022 season on the observe squad

Discover any evident points (apart from their lack of producing constant stress final season)?

All three of the starters are on “the mistaken aspect” of 30 and are free brokers after the 2023 season, whereas two of the three kids behind them have precisely zero expertise and (presumably) a lot decrease ceilings than the 2 DTs that I’ve Seattle choosing within the first spherical of this mock draft.

Bryan Mone is the lone exception in that he’s nonetheless pretty younger (27) and has loads of expertise (practically 1,000 defensive snaps), however Pete Carroll not too long ago described Mone’s knee surgical procedure as “troublesome” and it wouldn’t be shocking if he misses all the 2023 season.

So . . .

Jalen Carter at #5 and Bryan Bresee at #20.

Day One of many 2023 NFL Draft is within the books and Seattle’s entrance workplace has made a transparent funding within the defensive position.

Spherical Two

I’ve seen a lot of feedback imploring the Seahawks to make use of their early picks on “protection, protection, and extra protection.”

However even those that are prescribing that strategy would possibly query this subsequent choose.

With the thirty seventh choose within the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks choose Defensive Deal with Mazi Smith, Michigan.

Admittedly, it’s a stretch to suppose that the Seahawks would use 3 straight picks to restock one place group. However . . .

(A) The present scenario with Seattle’s inside D-line group warrants it; and

(B) The choice is to attempt to woo free brokers (which might not be an choice relying on the place Geno Smith’s new contract lands)

Plus, there wasn’t anybody else that I used to be dying to pick out at #37. Linebackers Trenton Simpson and Drew Sanders went #23 and #32, respectively. Nolan Smith (#29) and fellow EDGE BJ Ojulari have been each off the board, as was Will McDonald IV.

I thought of Boise State Security JL Skinner, who lists Kam Chancellor as his favourite participant, and Georgia Tight Finish Darnell Washington, however #37 appeared a little bit excessive for both of them.

On the finish of the day although, there was one actually compelling purpose to pick out Mazi Smith: HE FITS.

John Schneider and Pete Carroll covet distinctive athletes.

The Seahawks want a nostril deal with.

Enter Mazi Smith.

As an added bonus, think about the shockwaves that will ripple throughout the league if, one yr after beginning a pair of rookie tackles on offense, the Seahawks began a trio of rookie tackles on protection.

Good instances!

Spherical Two, Decide Two

With Seattle’s native choose within the 2nd spherical, I virtually chosen Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

Nearly.

Nonetheless, as tempting because it was so as to add a pass-catching, 3-down again (particularly after passing on Bijan Robinson at #20), it will have been virtually felony to move on the participant that I ended up selecting.

With the 51st choose within the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks choose Heart John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota.

Sure, in the end, the Seahawks tackle the underperforming revolving door in the course of their offensive line.

As a bonus, the extremely infectious “John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt” turns into the staff’s de facto theme music and, in an try to confuse opposing defenses, all of Seattle’s offensive gamers get league approval to put on jerseys with ‘Schmitz’ on the again (as a result of his identify is their identify too).

Spherical Three

After utilizing the Seahawks’ first three picks on Defensive Tackles and Seattle’s 4th choose on a Heart, there are clearly a ton of “wants” left, together with EDGE, Linebacker, Huge Receiver, Security, Guard, and (probably) a developmental QB – not essentially in that order.

Sadly, we solely have one choose within the third spherical and a few of the gamers I hoped would possibly slide . . . didn’t.

Auburn EDGE Derick Corridor went to the Texans at #65 and Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey went to the Patriots at #76.

WRs Jalin Hyatt (#67), Rashee Rice (#73), and Cedric Tillman (#75) have been gone.

Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown was snatched up by the Jets at #74, however Oregon’s Noah Sewell and Alabama’s Henry To’o To’o have been nonetheless on the board (though PFF’s simulator has To’o To’o as a Fifth-round choose).

Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker went one choose earlier than ours because the Bucs selected him to compete with Kyle Trask for Tom Brady’s outdated job.

Actually, all issues thought of, the selection in Spherical 3 got here all the way down to a Linebacker (Sewell) or a Guard . . .

With the 83rd choice within the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks choose Guard Steve Avila, TCU.

It’s not a horny choose, nevertheless it ought to pay instant dividends.

Particularly if it leads to Gabe Jackson, who platooned with Phil Haynes at RG final yr, changing into a cap casualty.

Avila’s complete rookie contract (2023-2026) would price Seattle $5,549,976.

The cap financial savings from releasing Jackson are $6.5M.

Jackson’s 2023 cap hit (if retained) is $11,262,223. Avila’s 2023 cap hit can be $1,009,086.

Oh, and Avila additionally has expertise at Heart.

Win-win-WIN.

Abstract

The Seahawks’ 5 picks over the primary three rounds yield three defensive tackles and two inside offensive linemen, all of whom ought to have the ability to compete for beginning roles in 2023.

• #5: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
• #20: DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
• #37: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
• #51: OC John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
• #83: OG Steve Avila, TCU

Go Hawks!