Climate scientists say Seattle is in for colder, wetter winter thanks to third-in-a-row La Niña

Is Seattle snowier than it was once, or have snow occasions at all times been part of the Pacific Northwest climate panorama?

Driving the information: With extra snow forecast throughout Western Washington this week and a three-month prediction for a colder, wetter winter, we requested some Seattle climate watchers for his or her ideas on what to anticipate and why.

By the numbers: Seattle’s common seasonal snowfall between 1991 and 2020 was 6.3 inches, in response to the town’s official snowfall data taken at Seattle-Tacoma Worldwide Airport and Justin Shaw of Seattle Climate Weblog.

• The 30-year common between 1971 and 2000 was 11 inches, Shaw mentioned. Meaning, total, snow totals are down, not up, he mentioned.
• Sure, however: Three of the final 4 years had file breaking or tying snow occasions.

Flashback: In February 2019, over 20 inches of measurable snow fell, shattering a 70-year file for the month. The earlier month-to-month excessive was 13.1 inches set in February 1949, in response to climate service data.

• In 2021, Seattle recorded its single snowiest day in 52 years when 8.9 inches fell on Feb. 13. A complete of 12.9 inches for the 2020-2021 winter season was reported.
• The town recorded 9.2 inches of snow final 12 months, the 2021-2022 winter.

Sure, and: The Local weather Prediction Middle is forecasting a colder, wetter Pacific Northwest winter for the three-month interval between December and February 2023. Washington state climatologist Nick Bond has mentioned that is to be anticipated in a La Niña 12 months.

What they’re saying: “I’d say the massive motive is because of us having three La Niña winters in a row,” Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik, local weather scientist and writer of the Convergence Zone, mentioned.

• “What we’re seeing now’s largely pure variability. Anticipate that local weather change will cut back lowland snow occasions sooner or later.”

What to look at: With a number of storm methods poised to maneuver via Western Washington over the following week and temperatures that might drop under freezing, there is a particular likelihood we’ll see extra snow, Sam Borth, a meteorologist with the NWS forecast workplace in Seattle, mentioned.

• A combination of rain and snow is most certainly within the Seattle space on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Heavier snow is feasible north of Seattle, alongside the Hood Canal and western sides of Kitsap, Skagit and Whatcom counties, per the NWS.
• Excessive-wind advisories and warnings in Seattle, the San Juans and elements of Skagit and Whatcom will final via Wednesday with gusts of as much as 50 mph anticipated within the north.

Our thought bubble by way of Axios’ Andrew Freedman: La Niña occasions characteristic cooler than common ocean temperatures within the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and can lead to quite a few shifts in climate patterns. One well-known impact of La Niña occasions is for storm methods to be directed towards the Pacific Northwest, whereas areas to the south keep drier than common.

This winter can be solely the third triple dip La Niña winter since 1950, in response to NOAA.