Analysis: Revisiting J.P. Crawford’s Extension With Seattle Mariners

Hours earlier than first pitch on Opening Day this previous April, the Mariners introduced a five-year, $51 million extension with J.P. Crawford that purchased out the remainder of his arbitration and two free-agent years. 

On the time, I felt Seattle was taking an pointless danger; Crawford had not confirmed to be something greater than a league-average hitter over an prolonged time period, and the upside appeared restricted in comparison with different choice the group might have probably pursued by way of commerce or free company. 

Crawford’s finest season got here in 2021, when he put up a 103 wRC+ and was price 3.3 fWAR. That is a very nice hitter to have. However he has a profession 98 wRC+ in nearly 2,000 at-bats, which is 2 factors under the league-average charge. 

Whereas Crawford has seen his strikeout charge drop every season, his high quality of contact has been stabilizing close to the underside of the league. His hard-hit charge is within the bottom-sixth percentile in baseball, and his barrel charge is within the bottom-third percentile. This can be a hitter that hardly ever hits the ball with authority and lacks the kind of contact that leads to extra-base hits. There may be little cause to imagine it will change anytime quickly. 

Crawford had a scorching first month of the season this yr, however since June 1, he’s slashing .221/.283/.277 with a 67 wRC+, which ranks thirty first amongst shortstops with at the least 100 plate appearances and dead-last amongst shortstops with at the least 200 plate appearances over that span. 

To paraphrase: Crawford has been the worst on a regular basis offensive shortstop within the league over the previous two months. 

Moreover, Crawford has a destructive fWAR over that span too, that means that he has been worse than a replacement-level participant and his protection and baserunning haven’t been ok to beat his lack of offensive manufacturing. 

I don’t worth Outs Above Common as a high quality fielding stat for infielders (it’s my desire for outfielders), but it surely has Crawford because the second-worst defensive shortstop in all of baseball at -6 OAA. Defensive Runs Saved, which is a greater stat for infielders, has Crawford because the Sixteenth-best shortstop at +3 DRS. 

Irrespective of which stat you have a look at, Crawford has been a mean defender at finest. 

Final offseason, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto reassured Crawford he was “our shortstop” and that any rumors of Seattle courting gamers on the place in free company got here with the caveat they’d be moved elsewhere on the diamond. 

Now, that call appears like it could have been a mistake. And with one other robust group of shortstops—headlined by Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson—heading in the direction of free company this winter, it could appear clever for Dipoto and firm to take a extra open-minded method.