Treasury yields move lower ahead of key consumer inflation report

Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of U.S. inflation data for clues on the size of a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly 2 basis points lower at 3.627%, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points at 3.588%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

Market participants are anticipating the release of two key inflation reports this week. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for August will be released on Wednesday before market open, while the U.S. producer price index (PPI) report, also for August, is scheduled for release on Thursday.

The reports come ahead of the Fed’s Sept 17-18 meeting, with traders widely expecting a rate cut. The only remaining question appears to be by how much the U.S. central bank will reduce rates.

Some economists have argued the Fed should deliver a half-point rate cut next week, accusing the central bank of having previously gone “too far, too fast” with monetary policy tightening.

Others have described such a move as one that would be “very dangerous” for markets, pushing instead for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate cut instead.

Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with 33% expecting a 50-basis-point rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.