The New York Mets (58-37) host the San Diego Padres (54-42) for his or her 3-game collection and season finale at Citi Subject on ESPN’s Sunday Night time Baseball, which is scheduled for a 7:08 p.m. ET begin. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s traces across the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season collection: San Diego leads 4-1 with a plus-16 run differential in these conferences.
San Diego gained the primary 2 video games of this collection by a mixed rating of 6-2 with Padres SPs Yu Darvish and Blake Snell permitting simply 1 earned run over 12 innings of mixed work with a 14/3 Ok/BB fee.
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Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Musgrove is 8-2 with a 2.42 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and eight.8 Ok/9 in 104 IP over 16 begins.
Final begin: No-decision in San Diego’s 10-6 loss on the Colorado Rockies July 13 with 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 4 Ok.
2022 vs. the Mets: 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 17 Ok.
Carrasco is 10-4 with a 4.27 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.1 Ok/9 in 99 IP throughout 18 begins.
Final begin: Gained 8-0 in New York’s July 14 victory on the Chicago Cubs with 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 Ok.
2022 vs. the Padres: 1 begin, a 11-5 win June 6 in San Diego with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 Ok.
Padres at Mets odds and features
Odds offered by Tipico Sportsbook; entry USA TODAY Sports activities Scores and Sports activities Betting Odds hub for a full record. Traces final up to date at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Cash line (ML): Padres +105 (wager $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (wager $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Towards the unfold (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
Over/Beneath (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mets 3
Cash line
BET 1 UNIT ON THE PADRES (+105) as a result of they’ve an edge within the beginning pitching matchup, San Diego is an MLB-best 15-9 total as highway underdogs and betting the Padres on the highway with Musgrove on the highway has been worthwhile.
Musgrove is healthier than Carrasco by Ok% (24.8-23.8%), BB% (6.2-5.6%), HR% (2.6-2.2%), hard-hit fee (38.4-36.7%) and exit velocity (88.2-86.5 mph).
Additionally, Carrasco struggles on 6 or extra days of relaxation the place he has his worst profitable proportion (42.3%), ERA (5.15), WHIP (1.33), Ok/9 (8.4) and residential runs allowed per 9 (1.63) of any relaxation break up.
Lastly, San Diego is 15-9 total on the highway in Musgrove begins since he joined the Padres final season with a mean rating of 4.54-3.88 and a plus-12.1% return on funding.
BET PADRES (+105).
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Run line/Towards the unfold
PASS.
As a lot as I’d love some insurance coverage for our San Diego ML look, the Padres +1.5 (-200) is approach too costly as a result of they’re an MLB-best 19-5 RL as highway underdogs.
Over/Beneath
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-112).
A lot of the motion is on the Beneath 7.5 (-108) in keeping with Pregame.com but the full has been lowered from an 8-run opener. This reverse line motion is suspicious and suggests the oddsmakers are laying a entice with the full and are baiting bettors into taking extra pro-Beneath motion.
It’s solely a LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-130) as a result of the market evaluation is my sole handicapping angle for the Padres-Mets whole and it is a “sharp” quantity with out a ton of worth on both aspect.
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