The Cost of the Crackdown: How Trump’s immigration enforcement affects Oregon

PORTLAND, Ore. (KATU) — President Donald Trump campaigned on carrying out what he called the largest deportation operation in American history.

After taking office, his administration quickly ramped up immigration enforcement. Border czar Tom Homan also pledged to focus on so-called sanctuary cities, including Portland. According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, more than 675,000 people were deported in 2025, while the agency says more than 2 million people “self-deported.”

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In Oregon, state data shows state and local agencies experienced a 265% increase in immigration-related requests from federal authorities last year.

So what does that mean for Oregon’s economy?

The state’s chief economist says the effects are beginning to emerge.

Carl Riccadonna, Oregon’s state economist, said immigration enforcement actions are influencing consumer spending and activity across several key industries, though the state cannot yet quantify the overall impact.

“What we’re seeing in terms of immigration action is playing out in either consumption patterns, which we’ve seen in some communities, or in industrial or sectoral activity,” Riccadonna said. “This does then have implications for how we are reading the overall macroeconomy and putting together that revenue forecast.”

Riccadonna said the effects extend beyond agriculture, an industry that has historically relied on immigrant labor.

“We have certainly, in sector-by-sector analysis, we’re hearing evidence of impacts from immigration in consumption numbers, so retail, groceries, those sorts of things,” Riccadonna said. “There are also significant impacts in the retail sector and leisure and hospitality, restaurants and construction, important legacy industries of Oregon like timber, forestry … and manufacturing has a very large footprint as well.”

While the state is seeing those trends, Riccadonna said economists cannot yet calculate exactly how much immigration enforcement has affected Oregon’s economy.

“We haven’t done an exercise to say, well, this is what the forecast would have been otherwise. We don’t produce counterfactuals … but there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence from the cherry harvest this past summer and stresses elsewhere throughout those specific sectors,” he said.

National data offers additional context.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the recent immigration surge — which the report says mostly comprises immigrants who were not lawful permanent residents, were not eligible to apply for lawful permanent residency based on their current status, and were not admitted on a temporary basis under the Immigration and Nationality Act — generated approximately $10 billion in state and local tax revenue in 2023. During that same period, governments spent nearly $19 billion on services such as schools, shelters and border security.

A damaged car is seen as law enforcement officials work the scene following reports that federal immigration officers shot and wounded people in Portland, Ore., Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)

The Congressional Budget Office also projects the immigration surge that began in 2023 will increase the U.S. labor force by approximately 5.8 million people by 2034 and boost the nation’s economic output by nearly $9 trillion over the next decade.

Riccadonna said Oregon expects to gain a clearer picture of the economic effects as more tax and revenue data becomes available.

This story is part of KATU’s “The Cost of the Crackdown” special, which examines how increased immigration enforcement is affecting Oregon, from businesses and workers to the state’s broader economy.