Oregon
Oregon vs. Purdue football prediction: What the analytics say
One of the Big Ten’s new conference matchups kicks off this Friday night as No. 2 Oregon hits the road against Purdue in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert football model that picks winners.
Oregon is coming off the signature win of head coach Dan Lanning’s tenure, edging Ohio State by a single point a week ago, moving to 6-0 overall and a statement 3-0 mark in Big Ten play.
Purdue is on a 5-game losing streak, although it came within a point of upsetting ranked Illinois in overtime last weekend, but still ranks 101st nationally in scoring offense and 109th in passing output, although a quarterback change to Ryan Browne could boost those averages, as he threw for nearly 300 yards last week.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
As expected, the Ducks are big favorites against the Boilermakers by the model’s calculations.
Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 95.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.
The index also suggests a comfortable margin for the Ducks on the scoreboard in this game.
Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks to cover a big spread against the Boilermakers.
That’s because Oregon is a 27.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning it would need to win by 4 touchdowns to cover the line.
FanDuel set the total at 60.5 points for the game.
And it listed the moneyline odds for Oregon at -3000 and for Purdue at +1300 to win outright.
A slight majority of bets currently suggest the Ducks will dominate the Boilermakers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Oregon is getting 55 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.
The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Purdue will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score within 4 touchdowns in a loss.
Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Purdue a win total prediction of 1.7 games, the lowest mark in the Big Ten, and a 0 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.
The index forecasts that Oregon is 19.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, according to its latest calculations.
But it estimates that Purdue is 9.7 points worse than opponents in a similar setting, one of four Big Ten teams to come out in negative numbers in that category.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
- Texas (56)
- Oregon (6)
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Clemson
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Ole Miss
- Missouri
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Illinois
- Army
- Michigan
- Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The good times keep on rolling for the Oregon Ducks in the recruiting world. Dan Lanning and the Ducks scored a massive commitment from five-star quarterback Will Mencl out of Chandler, Arizona.
Oregon had been rumored to be leading the race for Mencl’s services for months, but the No. 1 quarterback in the country, per Rivals, cleared the air and committed to the Ducks on Wednesday evening. Mencl chose the Ducks over Auburn and Penn State, both of which battled hard for him down the stretch.
However, Mencl has been connected to Oregon for a long time. While he was offered last fall before breaking out in his junior season, Mencl has been a fan of the program long before he popped up on the Ducks’ recruiting radar. In a post shared by Rivals recruiting expert Steve Wiltfong, Mencl was announced as a quarterback for the Ducks when he was a kid at the 2019 NFL Draft fan experience in 2019.
Now, Mencl is ready to don the green and yellow for real and make his childhood dreams come true. The Ducks have made a point to get Mencl on campus as often as possible and as recently as last week. The continued connection between both sides is ultimately what made the decision easy for the nation’s top passer. Mencl said he told Lanning and the Oregon staff about his decision on Sunday.
“The biggest thing was the relationship with the staff,” Mencl said after committing. “I feel like that continued to grow over time, especially when I first got there last spring. Being able to sit down with Coach Koa, really being an underlooked guy at that time, and kind of blowing up my junior season. And then, the path to the NFL. You can’t deny what they do with quarterbacks and the type of scheme they run. I felt like that was the best fit for me and my family to get to the next level.”
Koa Ka’ai, Oregon’s new quarterback coach, made waves earlier in the offseason after his recruiting test about ice cream flavors went viral, but that doesn’t appear to have scared Mencl off. In fact, the two have a close connection that Oregon hopes will translate to success on the field in the near future.
“My relationship with Coach Koa, I feel like that is super, super strong,” Mencl told Rivals. “I’ve had a lot of discussions with Coach Lanning about the culture there and how they’re going to continue to sustain greatness throughout the program.”
Mencl exploded onto the national recruiting scene with a massive junior season for Chandler. He completed more than 70% of his passes for 3,815 yards and 33 touchdowns against five interceptions in his junior season, leading Chandler to a state title berth. He also rushed for 741 yards and an additional 17 touchdowns.
The Ducks expect to have some competition for Mencl to compete with when he joins the team for the 2027 season, with Dylan Raiola and Akili Smith Jr. already on the roster and competing for a role as the backup. Oregon has gone to the transfer portal as well in recent seasons, finding success with Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel, and now Dante Moore.
Oregon has recruited well at quarterback in the past, establishing an NFL pedigree that attracted Mencl. Maybe he will be the one to buck the trend and give the Ducks a true, homegrown product under center.
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‘Pour in the largest glass you can find while slow dancing in your socks,’ a Wine Enthusiast contributor said of an Oregon wine
PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – Wine Enthusiast released a list of the top 40 sparkling wines around the world in 2026 – highlighting two bottles of bubbly from Oregon.
“While it can seem like you need a fortune to enjoy high quality sparkling wine, you honestly don’t. Excellent affordable bubbles are being produced around the world, often in places you might not expect. Each of the selections on our inaugural Top 40 Sparkling Wines list delivers personality, freshness, and celebration for under $75,” Wine Enthusiast wrote.
Wine Enthusiast divided its list into separate sparkling categories including, Champagne, Italian Bollicine, American sparkling and bottles $25 and under.
Snagging a spot on the American sparkling list: Corollary Wines in McMinnville.
Corollarly’s 2021 Momtazi Carbonic Rosé Pinot Noir scored 96 points from Wine Enthusiast.
“This is a Peter Max print of a wine, with vivid aromas and flavors to match the wine’s electric Kool-Aid color. It is filled to the brim with aromas and flavors of macerated strawberries, candied rose petals, apricots, and a bitter note similar to watermelon rind. Pour in the largest glass you can find while slow dancing in your socks,” wrote Wine Enthusiast contributor Michael Alberty.
The second Oregon winery to earn a spot on the list: Lytle-Barnett in Dundee.
Wine Enthusiast also gave Lytle-Barnett’s 2018 Brut Rosé Pinot Noir Chardonnay 96 points.
“Bubbles as persistent as an eight-year-old with a question deliver aromas of dried rose petals, macerated strawberries, and a touch of fresh hay and talc. This 70/30 Pinot Noir and Chardonnay blend is packed with flavors of lemon zest, Honeycrisp apple slices drizzled in caramel, and a dollop of raspberry,” Alberty wrote.
The nods to Corollary and Lytle-Barnett come as the wineries recently helped launch Method Oregon, a nonprofit made up of 50 Oregon wineries aiming to turn Oregon into a global sparkling wine destination.
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