The Oregon Ducks entered Week 1 of the 2024 College Football Season with as much hype as anyone in the nation, expected by many to win the national championship when all was said and done.
They now leave Week 1 with a bit of concern about how good this team really is.
Oregon defeated Idaho 24-14, but they looked nothing like the dominant team that we expected. That doesn’t mean they can’t bounce back and look like the College Football Playoff contenders that we originally imagined this coming week against Boise State, but for now, expectations are currently tempered a bit in Eugene.
Those expectations are tempering nation-wide as well, displayed no more glaringly than in the ESPN Football Power Index, where Oregon’s numbers have plummeted over the weekend.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, they looked at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicted what percent chance the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers will change based on past performance, injuries, and a whole myriad of variables that take place throughout the season.
Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 1:
Oregon vs. Boise State Broncos — Week 2
Syndication: The Register-Guard
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.7%
Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%
Analysis: Boise State struggled to put away Georgia Southern in Week 1, so there shouldn’t be much concern that Oregon will be able to get the win on Saturday inside Autzen Stadium. Slowing down RB Ashton Jeanty may be a bit of a task after he put up 6 touchdowns to open the season, but the Ducks’ defense will surely be up to the task.
Oregon at Oregon State Beavers — Week 3
Syndication: The Register Guard
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 78.1%
Previous FPI Win %: 87.0%
Analysis: It sure is going to feel strange to play this game in September. There’s a good chance both Oregon and Oregon State are undefeated going into this game, but the Ducks should still be able to take care of the Beavers with relative ease based on the talent gap alone.
Oregon at UCLA Bruins — Week 5
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.8%
Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%
Analysis: The first Big Ten game for the Ducks will come against a familiar foe down in Los Angeles. It will be interesting to see what UCLA looks like this year with a new coaching staff and remade roster, but even at their best I don’t think the Bruins will be able to hang with the Ducks.
For more UCLA news, check out UCLA Wire!
Oregon vs. Michigan State Spartans — Week 6
(Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.5%
Previous FPI Win %: Not Listed
Analysis: The odds were not listed for the Michigan State game to start the year, but after getting a glimpse of the Spartans in Week 1, ESPN doesn’t seem to be lacking any confidence over Oregon’s ability to beat them.
For more Michigan State news, check out Spartans Wire!
Oregon vs.No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes — Week 7
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%
Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%
Analysis: This is a game that I’m honestly surprised didn’t see a change in the win probability. Ohio State looked very solid in their Week 1 win over Akron, but they’re still projected to lose inside Autzen Stadium in Week 7.
For more Ohio State news, check out Buckeyes Wire!
Oregon at Purdue Boilermakers— Week 8
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.2%
Previous FPI Win %: Not listed
Analysis: I expected this game to be viewed like the Michigan State game would, but because it’s on the road it appears that ESPN isn’t as confident in the Ducks as we expected. Still, I think the Ducks should be fin and this win probability will increase over the net month.
Oregon vs. Illinois Fighting Illini — Week 9
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.6%
Previous FPI Win %: 95.5%
Analysis: Illinois is a team that is getting a little bit of attention in the conference as a potential trap game candidate, and with this matchup coming a week before Michigan, you can see that risk for the Ducks. But in all reality, there’s no reason this game should be close.
Oregon at Michigan Wolverines — Week 10
(Photo By Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 44.9%
Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%
Analysis: A big-time drop in win probability for the Ducks here as Michigan looked good at home in their win over Fresno State. It’s going to be a big game for Oregon in the Big House, with this being the only matchup the Ducks aren’t favored to win.
For more Michigan news, check out Wolverines Wire!
Oregon vs. Maryland Terrapins— Week 11
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.0%
Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%
Analysis: For the first-ever matchup between Oregon and Maryland, this one isn’t expected to be all that competitive. Maryland is going to have an interesting year with a new QB at the helm, but they could be dangerous for some teams in the middle of the conference. Ultimately, I don’t think the Ducks will have any issue.
Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 67.8%
Previous FPI Win %: 82.7%
Analysis: This should be a thrilling matchup in Madison late in the year, and with the history between these two teams, it could be a classic. We’re unsure what Wisconsin will look like this year in the second season under Luke Fickell, and now with Tyler Van Dyke under center, but if they meet expectations, we should be in for a good game here.
For more Wisconsin news, check out Badgers Wire!
Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14
(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 72.6%
Previous FPI Win %: 89.8%
Analysis: It feels like this is the chance at revenge that Oregon Duck fans have been waiting for. After three straight losses to Washington over the past two years, Oregon has a chance to blow out a less-talented team this year, and you know that they’re going to take very opportunity to make it a lopsided affair late in the season.
For more Washington news, check out UW Huskies Wire!
Oregon vs. Boise State Broncos — Week 2
Syndication: The Register-Guard
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.7%
Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%
Analysis: Boise State struggled to put away Georgia Southern in Week 1, so there shouldn’t be much concern that Oregon will be able to get the win on Saturday inside Autzen Stadium. Slowing down RB Ashton Jeanty may be a bit of a task after he put up 6 touchdowns to open the season, but the Ducks’ defense will surely be up to the task.
Oregon at Oregon State Beavers — Week 3
Syndication: The Register Guard
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 78.1%
Previous FPI Win %: 87.0%
Analysis: It sure is going to feel strange to play this game in September. There’s a good chance both Oregon and Oregon State are undefeated going into this game, but the Ducks should still be able to take care of the Beavers with relative ease based on the talent gap alone.
Oregon at UCLA Bruins — Week 5
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.8%
Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%
Analysis: The first Big Ten game for the Ducks will come against a familiar foe down in Los Angeles. It will be interesting to see what UCLA looks like this year with a new coaching staff and remade roster, but even at their best I don’t think the Bruins will be able to hang with the Ducks.
For more UCLA news, check out UCLA Wire!
Oregon vs. Michigan State Spartans — Week 6
(Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.5%
Previous FPI Win %: Not Listed
Analysis: The odds were not listed for the Michigan State game to start the year, but after getting a glimpse of the Spartans in Week 1, ESPN doesn’t seem to be lacking any confidence over Oregon’s ability to beat them.
For more Michigan State news, check out Spartans Wire!
Oregon vs.No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes — Week 7
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%
Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%
Analysis: This is a game that I’m honestly surprised didn’t see a change in the win probability. Ohio State looked very solid in their Week 1 win over Akron, but they’re still projected to lose inside Autzen Stadium in Week 7.
For more Ohio State news, check out Buckeyes Wire!
Oregon at Purdue Boilermakers— Week 8
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.2%
Previous FPI Win %: Not listed
Analysis: I expected this game to be viewed like the Michigan State game would, but because it’s on the road it appears that ESPN isn’t as confident in the Ducks as we expected. Still, I think the Ducks should be fin and this win probability will increase over the net month.
Oregon vs. Illinois Fighting Illini — Week 9
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.6%
Previous FPI Win %: 95.5%
Analysis: Illinois is a team that is getting a little bit of attention in the conference as a potential trap game candidate, and with this matchup coming a week before Michigan, you can see that risk for the Ducks. But in all reality, there’s no reason this game should be close.
Oregon at Michigan Wolverines — Week 10
(Photo By Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 44.9%
Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%
Analysis: A big-time drop in win probability for the Ducks here as Michigan looked good at home in their win over Fresno State. It’s going to be a big game for Oregon in the Big House, with this being the only matchup the Ducks aren’t favored to win.
For more Michigan news, check out Wolverines Wire!
Oregon vs. Maryland Terrapins— Week 11
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.0%
Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%
Analysis: For the first-ever matchup between Oregon and Maryland, this one isn’t expected to be all that competitive. Maryland is going to have an interesting year with a new QB at the helm, but they could be dangerous for some teams in the middle of the conference. Ultimately, I don’t think the Ducks will have any issue.
Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 67.8%
Previous FPI Win %: 82.7%
Analysis: This should be a thrilling matchup in Madison late in the year, and with the history between these two teams, it could be a classic. We’re unsure what Wisconsin will look like this year in the second season under Luke Fickell, and now with Tyler Van Dyke under center, but if they meet expectations, we should be in for a good game here.
For more Wisconsin news, check out Badgers Wire!
Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14
(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 72.6%
Previous FPI Win %: 89.8%
Analysis: It feels like this is the chance at revenge that Oregon Duck fans have been waiting for. After three straight losses to Washington over the past two years, Oregon has a chance to blow out a less-talented team this year, and you know that they’re going to take very opportunity to make it a lopsided affair late in the season.
For more Washington news, check out UW Huskies Wire!