Ohio State vs. Oregon football prediction: What the analytics say

Big Ten football brings us a new-look rivalry this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against No. 3 Oregon in college football’s Week 7 action under the lights. Let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game by an expert model that picks winners.

Ohio State and Oregon are both 5-0 overall this season and own 2-0 records in Big Ten play: the Buckeyes weathered some early defense from Iowa last week to eventually pull away, and ranks 4th in scoring offense and 1st nationally in scoring defense.

After winning its first two games by a combined 13 points, Oregon won its last 3 games by an average of 26 points behind some efficient quarterback play from Dillon Gabriel, who is completing almost 78 percent of his pass attempts.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, it’s the road team that’s getting a little more hype than the home side this week.

Ohio State is favored to win the game outright in a majority 64.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Oregon as the expected winner in the remaining 35.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes are projected to win in 12,840 of the index’s 20,000 simulations, while the Ducks came out ahead in the other 7,160 predictions for the game.

And the index foresees a very close matchup on the scoreboard, too.

Ohio State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 3 point favorite against Oregon, according to the lines listed at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -165 and for Oregon at +140 to win outright.

Bettors have more faith in the Ducks to hold serve on their home field, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A majority of bets — 57 percent — expect Oregon will either pull off the upset or keep the game within the line.

The other 43 percent of wagers forecast that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score suggests a close win for the Buckeyes on the road.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Ohio State will defeat Oregon by a projected score of 28 to 25 in the game.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams with a 91.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.6 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model names Oregon as the Big Ten’s second-best team, with a 66.1 percent shot at the playoff and a win total projection of 10.4 games.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

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When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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