Penn State and Oregon will meet in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night with the potential No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff on the line. 

The Nittany Lions have unlocked arguably the best tight end in the entire country in Tyler Warren this season, but is his receiving yard total too high for the Big Ten title game against a sturdy Oregon defense? 

What about the dynamic Ducks offense that will look to finish an undefeated regular season with a conference title. Can the team deploy its host of skill position threats to offset an elite Penn State pass rush? I’m targeting two players in particular to cash in in the player prop market for the Big Ten Championship. 

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook 

Jordan James OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards

James does it all for the Ducks this season, rushing for 1,166 yards while also providing relief out of the backfield for Dillon Gabriel. 

While he only has 21 catches on the season, James has been used more and more in the passing game, catching eight passes for 92 yards over the last three games. 

While the return of Tez Johnson last week from a two game absence may have impacted the game script, Gabriel still threw to James plenty, leading to four catches for 40 yards. 

Against a Penn State pass rush that is top 10 in the country, per Pro Football Focus, I believe we see Oregon lean on its quick hitting pass game and feature plenty of dump offs to Jordan, who is capable of getting over this total on one play. 

Tyler Warren UNDER 67.5 Receiving Yards

Warren is in the mix to win the Mackey Award for the nation’s best tight end, but I do believe this number is overrating his game-to-game output. 

After clearing this mark in four straight games, Warren has seen his number climb into the high 60’s. Overall, he has only cleared this mark in two other games. 

While he factors into the passing game heavily, he has at least seven targets in all but three games on the season, the Oregon defense has been elite at shutting down the pass all season long, ranking top 10 in EPA/Pass. Further, the team is 33rd in explosive pass rate, so I don’t believe that the Nittany Lions will be able to unlock its top target for a chunk play throughout the game. 

Overall, I need to play the averages and bet on some natural regression for Warren in the passing game. Considering he is deployed in different ways, including running the ball, there’s a chance that offensive coordinator Andy Kotelenecki has him impact the game that doesn’t involve catching passes. 

Traeshon Holden OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards

Oregon got back its No. 1 wide receiver Tez Johnson from injury last week in limited fashion, but his impact was felt up and down the roster, including No. 3 wide receiver Holden. 

The 6’3” pass catcher has been dangerous this season as a big play threat for the Ducks offense, averaging more than three yards per route run against man coverage, which is what Penn State does at a higher than national average rate. 

Holden has been able to make big plays often this season, clearing this total in all but two games on the season. Given that the Ducks offense is back at full capacity, I believe that he can slide into a comfortable role as the third option and test the Penn State secondary.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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