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2025 College Football Prediction, Best Bet: Back Oregon to Eclipse Win Total

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2025 College Football Prediction, Best Bet: Back Oregon to Eclipse Win Total


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With college football kicking off in just two months, it’s time to assess how successful — or how unsuccessful — teams will be this upcoming season.

There is one team whose win total stood out to me in particular: the Oregon Ducks.

And based on what we know about this team from last year and its offseason moves, I’m ready to throw down some cash on these Ducks.

Let’s take a look at what I think Oregon’s regular-season win total will be.

Oregon Ducks Over/Under 11 wins

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Dan Lanning returns to Eugene for his fourth season as head coach of the Oregon Ducks after three successful years. At 38 years old, this first-time head coach has an overall record of 35-6: 2022: 10-3, 2023: 12-2 and 2024: 13-1. For the sake of a regular-season win total, his record in just 12 regular-season games is 32-4, with three losses coming from his first season.

One characteristic of Lanning’s teams is their play against opponents they should beat. Aside from a loss to Oregon State at the end of the 2022 season, the Ducks have not lost a regular-season game they shouldn’t have. Their three other regular-season losses are to Georgia and twice to Washington. 

However, there have been close games. A late comeback against Washington State in 2022, a late pick-six to seal the game at Texas Tech in 2023 and a three-point win against Boise State and Wisconsin were Oregon’s closest wins last season. Otherwise, it’s a bunch of lopsided scores where Oregon was in no danger of losing. This mindset of respecting every opponent is welcome when you’re wagering Over 10.5 wins on a team. They can not be upset. There’s no margin for error.

The Oregon schedule allows for the Ducks to win most of their games. The non-conference slate includes three home games against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Oregon State. Oregon will be multiple-touchdown favorites against all three. While Montana State did play for the FCS championship, I expect the Ducks to be on high alert after their previous season opener against Idaho. Oklahoma State went 0-9 in the Big 12 last season, and the Beavers just don’t have the horses to compete. 

In conference play, Oregon hosts Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and USC. Oregon rarely loses at home, and none of these teams pose a threat right now. Indiana could be feisty with Mendoza and its coaching staff, while USC could be peaking near the end of the season if things break right. Still, these games are at home, where the Ducks usually win. 

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Oregon will face conference road games at Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Iowa and Washington. The Penn State game will be difficult, and Oregon may lose that game. In the other four games, Oregon will be a touchdown favorite or more, but playing at Washington to end the season is a rivalry game — one I’m hesitant to mark as a win ahead of time. If the Ducks are 10-1 and you’re afraid to lose the Over wager, then take Washington moneyline.

The Ducks’ winning ways over the last three seasons have included one of the best rosters in the country. They have fielded two straight Heisman finalists and over a dozen players drafted into the NFL. The last draft included their starting quarterback, running back, tight end, best receiver, starting defensive tackles and more. Oregon will be replacing a lot of talent and will need to mesh quickly for success.  

Oregon’s quarterback will be Dante Moore, a former five-star recruit who transferred from UCLA last winter. He redshirted last season and has a gifted arm. There were also transfer portal additions at running back, left tackle and left guard. Both of the offensive linemen could see their names called in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The Ducks defense saw major additions in the defensive back end as well. Oregon has stockpiled talent on the defensive line and at linebacker, and will need those guys to step up this season. I have no doubt the coaching staff — with years of results to back it up — will get these guys playing well early in the season.

For all these reasons, I’m taking Oregon to win 11 games or more. The Penn State game will be tough, and I’m not sure Oregon will win. The margin of error is slim if the Ducks lose, but they have shown no history of losing games that they shouldn’t. It’s a talented roster with a coaching staff who’s getting better each season.

PICK: Oregon Ducks Over 11 wins

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Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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‘Very grave situation’: Oregon court slaps attorney with $2,000 fine for AI errors

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‘Very grave situation’: Oregon court slaps attorney with ,000 fine for AI errors


An Oregon attorney accused of relying’ on the totally plausible — and often totally erroneous — output of so-called artificial intelligence was slapped with a fine by the Oregon Court of Appeals on Wednesday.

The appellate court determined that Portland civil attorney Gabriel A. Watson filed briefs citing two made-up cases and used a fabricated quote that was attributed to a real piece of case law.

In a first for Oregon, the Courts of Appeals ordered Watson to pay $2,000 to the state judicial department, charging him $500 for each baloney citation and $1,000 for the bogus quote.

“Although artificial intelligence programs may seem to offer a shortcut for a busy attorney in an individual case, at present, they may create a long cut to justice,” Chief Judge Erin Lagesen wrote, calling it a “very grave situation.”

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The errors were discovered by Watson’s legal opponent, former state lawmaker and retired attorney Charles Ringo.

Former Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, who once served as state senate majority leader, talks with Sen. Charles Ringo, D-Beaverton, in an undated file photo.Bruce Ely/The Oregonian

Ringo, representing himself, sued architectural designer Jennifer Cohoon in 2023, claiming her firm had created faulty plans for remodeling a duplex he owns in Bend.

An arbitrator sided with Cohoon in January and ordered Ringo to pay $1,200 plus $15,000 in fees to Watson, her attorney.

Ringo appealed and the case went haywire in May, when Watson filed the bunk-filled brief with the appellate court.

Ringo said he spent several hours chewing over Watson’s document, eventually making a trip to the Bend library to check legal databases and confirm his suspicions that Watson’s arguments were bolstered by fake decisions in prior cases that never happened.

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“I had to consider whether maybe there was just an innocent mistake in terms of the name of the case or the case citation numbers,” he said. “You have to check all sorts of variations to make sure that, no, this just doesn’t exist.”

Watson, for his part, tried to explain the error by saying that his assistant had mistakenly filed a “draft/placeholder” brief.

He later acknowledged and apologized for the apparently AI-generated errors, asking the court not to sanction him.

“As a solo practitioner, with a heavy case load, and a desire to fight for justice for all clients, there is an inherent risk of becoming overwhelmed,” he wrote. “The temptation of relying on technology to support these well-intentioned goals is strong.”

But the court had none of it.

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Lagesen, the judge, said Watson hadn’t provided a “clear explanation” of how the error occurred and that each false brief created by AI costs the judicial system time and money untangling the mix-up.

Legal precedent is the backbone of the law, Lagesen said, but artificial intelligence is a machine built on the probable order of words, not the truth itself.

AI mistakes are sometimes dubbed “hallucinations.” But Lagesen rejected that term.

“Artificfial intelligence is not perceiving nonexistent law as the result of a disorder,” she wrote. “Rather, it is generating nonexistent law in accordance with its design.”

Watson didn’t respond to requests for comment. Cohoon learned about the matter from a reporter and declined to comment.

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Oregon federal judges have encountered AI errors in at least two cases so far, The Oregonian/OregonLive previously reported. U.S. District Judge Michael Simon declined to impose sanctions against attorneys for Green Building Initiative on Nov. 12, ruling that he was “satisfied with the remedial actions already taken.”

U.S. Magistrate Judge Mark Clarke has not yet ruled on a similar matter in Medford.



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OPINION: JaMarcus Shephard was Oregon State’s First Choice, and the Right Choice

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OPINION: JaMarcus Shephard was Oregon State’s First Choice, and the Right Choice


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A week ago – after former Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst backed out, North Dakota State head coach Tim Polasek signed a lucrative extension, Jim L. Mora agreed to take the reins at Colorado State, and Montana State head coach Brent Vigen elected to stay in Bozeman – fans across Beaver Nation wondered who would lead their program. I wondered too.

Now that the dust has settled – JaMarcus Shephard is the head coach of the Oregon State Beavers’ football program – I owe an apology to Scott Barnes and his search committee.

They got their guy. I now believe he was their first choice all along, and I’ll offer three reasons why.

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Shephard satisfied Oregon State’s top priority: a strong character

I have previously written about the off-field failings of the Trent Bray era: student-athletes were arrested following domestic violence allegations, or caught driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol. Both the Oregon State campus & Corvallis community lost trust in its football team. Enter JaMarcus Shephard. “As we moved forward through the process and narrowed down to JaMarcus,” explained Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes in yesterday’s press conference, “I made several calls to friends and colleagues in the industry…and as I talked to them about JaMarcus, they leaned in hard on the person he was rather than the accomplishments he had.”

Barnes later shared a letter he received from Shephard’s middle school PE teacher, Joan Augenbaugh: “I want to reach out and congratulate you on the hiring of one of the most amazing students I’ve ever had in my thirty-three years of teaching. I had JaMarcus when I first started my teaching career. He has that joy about him, always the smile. I am happy, so happy for him, he has always worked so hard for everything he has and everything he has achieved. ”

For her part, Oregon State president Jayathi Murthy appeared similarly spirited by the hire. Only months removed from Oregon State’s associated student body prodding her about Trent Bray’s no-comment comment on troubled cornerback Exodus Ayers, she told the assembled crowd how excited she was for next September’s home opener. She’s not even a football fan!

I believe Shephard – who used his time yesterday to emphasize the importance of academic excellence & embracing Oregon State’s campus culture – has the bona fides to clean up a wayward program.

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MORE: State of the Beavs: JaMarcus Shephard’s First Days At Oregon State

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Shephard satisfied Oregon State’s second-highest priority: a skilled recruiter

Fired Oregon State head coach Trent Bray had a glaring weakness: recruiting. Back in May, Lake Oswego running back LaMarcus Bell – arguably the best prep in the Beaver State – wanted to visit other schools. Instead of acquiescing, Oregon State forced his hand, scrubbing a scholarship offer and previously scheduled official visit. Bell signed with Utah earlier today.

A similar story played out with California corner Donovan Dunmore, an Oregon State commit who crossed Bray’s invisible line after an official visit to Wisconsin earlier this season. Today, Dunmore marked his commitment to Camp Randall in ink.

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Bell, Dunmore, and Fresno four-star quarterback Deagan Rose highlight a hit parade of 7 different de-commitments from Oregon State’s signing class. Now, consider JaMarcus Shephard. At blue-chip Alabama the past two seasons, and a Washington program that reached the College Football Playoff national championship game two years ago, he worked tirelessly to build relationships with players. His head coach Kalen DeBoer explained this week that “He’s a guy that pours everything into this program, and he’s poured everything into me. It’s something that our players know and feel, known Shep since really 2014, and you can’t help but be excited for someone who gets to run their own program.”

Shephard played a part in building two of the sport’s best teams. Now he’ll pitch talented student-athletes on spending their Saturdays at Reser Stadium.

For added measure, Shephard flashes incredible charisma

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Trent Bray struggled in front of the microphones. I’m reminded of a difficult exchange with OregonLive.com columnist Bill Oram, who – in a moment of frustration – asked the head coach point blank “Do you still believe you’re the right coach to lead this program?”

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Oram, for his part, borrowed the microphone during the question/answer session that capped yesterday’s presser. When he spoke, Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes scowled. Flanked beside Barnes’ left shoulder, JaMarcus Shephard quite literally turned his other cheek, then smiled, and eagerly listened to what the once-confrontational columnist had to say. Oregon State’s new head coach has a way with people: his portion of the press conference ran for nearly an hour, and included heartfelt thanks addressed by name to his daughters, wife, and son, plus a platoon of Oregon State alumni, boosters, and decision-makers in attendance. After addressing so many questions that Oregon State assistant athletic director Hank Hager cut him off – Shephard walked off to the side and huddled up a private media scrum for even more questions.

Years ago, I remember interviewing the recently fired Jonathan Smith before a fundraising event at the Rogue Valley Country Club in Medford. As soon as the mic stopped recording, Jonathan sprinted away to go play some holes. I don’t blame him – the view of the Siskiyou Mountains helps shape one of the prettiest courses in America – but the contrast between Shephard and his predeccesors is stark. After media members were finally finished with their questions yesterday, JaMarcus Shephard stayed behind for hugs & handshakes.

Like I said on BlueSky yesterday: Beaver Nation, you got your guy. Sorry it took me so long to figure out.

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More Reading Material From Oregon State Beavers On SI



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Oregon Football 2026 Signing Day Tracker: Who is joining the Ducks?

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Oregon Football 2026 Signing Day Tracker: Who is joining the Ducks?


Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks have made a habit of stealing headlines during the Early Signing Period, whether for top-ranked signing classes or big-time commitment flips.

Oregon is expecting to make more headlines this week as well, looking to sign a fourth straight top-10 ranked class, and potentially the third top-five ranked class in a row.

Going into the early signing period, the Ducks have 19 verbal commitments who they are looking to turn into official signings and a couple of prospects who they are trying to flip to come to Oregon on top of that.

So what is the latest news, and who has signed for the Ducks so far? Here’s an updated look at the latest happenings in Eugene:

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This article will be updated throughout the day as more players announce their signing.

Xavier Lherisse— Eau Gallie (Florida)

247Sports Rating: 4-star (90)

National Ranking: No. 384

Position Ranking: No. 33

Tradarian Ball — Texas High (Texas)

247Sports Rating: 4-star (96)

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National Ranking: No. 54

Position Ranking: No. 9

Gatlin Bair — Burley High (Idaho)

247Sports Rating: 5-star (98)

National Ranking: No. 27

Position Ranking: No. 6

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(Bair was originally a member of the 2024 class, but after taking a two-year LDS mission, is re-signing with the Ducks)

Braylon Hodge — Cherry Creek (Colorado)

247Sports Rating: 4-star (92)

National Ranking: No. 212

Position Ranking: No. 12

Hudson Lewis — Timberline (Idaho)

247Sports Rating: 3-star (86)

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National Ranking: No. 1310

Position Ranking: No. 190

Azel Banag — A.C. Flora (South Carolina)

247Sports Rating: 3-star (87)

National Ranking: No. 852

Position Ranking: No. 69

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Tristan Phillips — Ventura (Calif.)

247Sports Rating: 4-star (91)

National Ranking: No. 362

Position Ranking: No. 24

Immanuel Iheanacho — Georgetown Prep (North Bethesda, MD)

247Sports Rating: 5-star (98)

National Ranking: No. 25

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Position Ranking: No. 2

Tony Cumberland — Willamette (Eugene, OR)

247Sports Rating: 4-star (95)

National Ranking: No. 88

Position Ranking: No. 11

Trevon Watson — College of San Mateo (California)

247Sports Rating: 3-star (84)

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National Ranking: No. 107 (JUCO)

Position Ranking: No. 13 (JUCO)

Prince Tavizon — Lincoln (San Diego)

247Sports Rating: 4-star (90)

National Ranking: No. 315

Position Ranking: No. 31

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Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.



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