NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – Monsoonal weather is likely to change ahead with the most active weather still in The Southeast because of Tropical Storm Debby and while back-to-school conditions will be pretty good for most in New Mexico, after the heat-up this afternoon, storms are more likely to form. Leftover rain has mostly dissipated this morning with only a few northwestward-moving showers around Lordsburg and with plenty of sunshine for a good portion of the day across the region, century-mark temperatures will be the most widespread this week with a Heat Advisory in Chaves County, but storms will likely roar on through across the northern mountains especially with a Flood Watch in effect.

Forecast Continues Below

It’s yet another morning of above-normal temperatures with most of the northern mountain communities starting off in the upper 40’s, 50’s, and low 60’s, while valley locations are mostly ranging from the upper 50’s to the 70’s. As temperatures across the region rise once again from the morning school commute into the high 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, and at least above 100 degrees for more areas by the afternoon, more moisture in the air, along with the ample amount of daytime heating, will lead to the likelihood of rainfall for some. The north-central mountains once again have the best chance of rain for today with burn-scar flash flooding more likely in The Hermits Peak & Calf Canyon area with a higher chance for rain around Ruidoso this afternoon, but flooding will still mostly likely not occur. Parts of The San Juan Mountains, The Gila National Forest, and eventually the northern parts of The Rio Grande Valley will have the potential for some potent storms as well today that will drift to the southeast later on. Even later this afternoon, more pockets of heavy rain, some hail, erratic winds gusting from the eastern canyons eventually, and plenty of lightning strikes will ensue.

It’s a tug of war between two high pressure systems, one to the east, but a stronger one to west that will continue to recycle moisture from The Four Corners across a good swath of the region ahead with cooler and more moist air, some relief in the heat.

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