New Mexico’s winter forecast: What New Mexicans can expect this season

NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – Winter started off strong in New Mexico this year with an early season snowstorm in November. That storm dropped several inches of snow around the Albuquerque Metro with record-breaking snowfall in Las Vegas and feet of snow in the mountains. Another storm brought heavy snowfall to the Sacramento Mountains and rain to southern New Mexico in the middle of November. So how does the rest of this winter look?

Usually, the mountains in northern New Mexico see their first average snowfall as early as the middle of October, with the rest of northern New Mexico usually seeing it around the middle of November. For Albuquerque, the average first snowfall is usually towards the end of November. While parts of southern New Mexico see their first snowfall in December, except for the Sacramento Mountains where it usually comes in November.

Average snowfall amounts vary widely across the state thanks to our varying geography. Average snowfall varies anywhere from about an inch in Las Cruces, to around 8″ in Roswell and Albuquerque, to as much as nearly two feet of snow in Santa Fe and 300″ in the Taos Ski Valley!

La Niña

This year, our winter forecast has relied heavily on climate forecast models, along with the influence of a weak La Niña, and previous winters that have similar La Niña conditions. Typically, La Niña means drier than average conditions across the southwest United States, with near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures.

The Climate Prediction Center’s winter outlook for December, January, and February follows this winter La Niña pattern. They are forecasting likely drier than average conditions across New Mexico, with a higher confidence in the southern half of the state. They are also forecasting for likely warmer than average temperatures across New Mexico, again with higher confidence in southern and southwestern parts of the state.

Our Winter Forecast

Looking at long-range forecasts, considering the effect La Niña and other climate patterns may have, and comparing the current climate conditions to a previously similar winter, the KRQE News 13 team of meteorologists have put together this outlook for the 2023-2024 winter in New Mexico:

We are forecasting below-average precipitation across most of the state from December through February. Parts of far northern and northeastern New Mexico, along with southern Colorado will likely see around average precipitation this winter. Most of the state will also see above-average temperatures overall, with warmer temperatures across southern and western New Mexico. Parts of eastern New Mexico and far northern New Mexico along with southern Colorado could see temperatures that are closer to average thanks to backdoor cold fronts and an overall winter pattern that may favor Colorado for snow and colder temperatures.

The KRQE News 13 team of meteorologists also took our best guesses at just how much snow Albuquerque is going to see this winter. Below you will find each meteorologist’s forecast. On average, Albuquerque usually sees 7.9″ of snow each winter.