The world recently exchanged a three-year weather pattern for one that should eventually dampen the drought-parched Southwest.
But this summer, farmers find themselves in a familiar position: Looking to the heavens for rain.
An El Niño, caused by a warmer Pacific Ocean near the equator, officially arrived in June.
Its initial warm, dry phase is weakening the Southwest’s summer monsoon, as scientists predicted, and is likely to produce more rain than usual in the region during the fall and possibly winter and spring, depending on its strength.
But for now, farmers in the Middle Rio Grande Valley must contend with hot, dry weather that’s forecast through August, while the last of the area’s federal supplemental water is dispensed in the next 10 days.
After that, farmers will have to pump irrigation water from wells — if they have them — and hope for some unanticipated downpours.
Mark Garcia, 55, who grows alfalfa, grasses and oats on a combined 400 acres at his Los Lunas and Belen farms, said he has no wells and must depend on whatever rain comes.
“I think there’s a lot of anxiety, especially now with this water situation,” Garcia said. “It’s scary. We’re relying on the monsoons. Right now, it’s dry. I haven’t seen it this dry — it’s been a while.”
Garcia said he will receive one final delivery of San Juan-Chama water, referring to the water that would naturally flow into the Colorado River Basin but is diverted to the Rio Grande through a federal system of dams and tunnels.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation allocates the water every year to the regional irrigation district that supplies farmers, as well as to six pueblos, Santa Fe and Albuquerque.
Garcia said if the sun bakes his fields with no rainfall in the next month, his grass crops will die, costing him tens of thousands of dollars in lost contracts.
His alfalfa, a more drought-resistant crop and the bulk of what he grows, will fare better, Garcia said. Still, no farmers want to lose any crops they take the time and energy to plant, he added.
All he and other farmers can do is push through the challenges that present themselves in a growing season, Garcia said.
“Farmers don’t give up,” he said. “We just keep on going.”
Promising start evaporates
Farmers are feeling the heat not only from an El Niño.
The weather pattern is heating an ocean already warming from climate change, causing effects worldwide — most noticeably record temperatures here and abroad, scientists say.
The severe heat waves occurring globally would be highly unlikely in many countries and would not be happening in North America if not for climate change, according to World Weather Attribution, an international effort to analyze how a changing climate influences weather.
As for El Niño, the heavier precipitation expected in the colder months eventually will benefit growers. It will form a deeper snowpack and dampen soils so they don’t soak up spring runoff before it flows into rivers that supply irrigation water.
This is roughly the reverse of what farmers grappled with in the past three years: back-to-back La Niña patterns in which a cooler South Pacific caused drier-than-normal winters in the Southwest.
The first two La Niñas were the most severe, resulting in spotty precipitation in winter and early spring, weakening snowpacks and reducing spring runoff.
They compounded the West’s quarter-century drought, creating other problems. Snow melted early, slowing runoff to a near trickle by late spring when it’s needed, and the Bureau of Reclamation cut back its water allocations because of low river flows.
Fortunately for farmers, Mother Nature came through with healthy monsoons both summers, though for some growers the storms were too intense, flooding their fields.
This year, La Niña ended early and snow piled up on the mountains. The snowmelt went into June, and the bureau allocated the full amount of water to users, neither of which had happened in years.
Having a swollen river in early summer and receiving the full allocation of San Juan-Chama water helped carry irrigators into August, but a tough challenge now lies ahead as the federal supply runs out amid the hottest month of the year, said Jason Casuga, chief engineer and CEO of the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District.
Casuga said he’d heard El Niño would bring a drier summer, but the brutal heat has exceeded expectations.
“We thought it was going to be hot, but not this hot,” Casuga said. “It’s going to get tight for middle valley farmers.”
The summer growing season had a promising start, but now the district is about to burn through the full federal allocation of 21,000 acre-feet of water, he said.
That’s about 6.5 billion gallons, almost twice as much as the district received in recent lean years.
Chris Lopez, who grows alfalfa, chile, grasses, oats and winter wheat on his family’s 700-acre farm in Socorro, said things have gone all right so far.
The chile, which he cultivates on 20 acres, is holding up, he said, noting it fares better in drier conditions than in heavy rain, though a balance is necessary.
“Chile likes hot weather, but it does take water,” Lopez said. “And water is getting a little scarce. It sounds like by the end of the month, we’re going to be hurting for some water.”
He always plants chile near their groundwater well in case it’s needed, he said. In the coming week, he will crank up the pumps, something he hasn’t had to do in two years, he added.
In the previous two summers, his farm had the best chile yield he could remember, he said. This year, the harvest will be smaller, he said, which has less do with the hot days than the cool nights keeping the plants from germinating, he said.
“I think that probably did more harm than anything else,” Lopez said.
Increased uncertainty
The Rio Grande is now running at 2 to 3 inches deep south of San Acacia, between Socorro and Truth or Consequences, and easily less than a foot deep in other parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley. Hot weather is bound to diminish it further, Casuga said.
If no rain replenishes the river, there will be only enough water to supply the Native pueblos, which are first in line to receive it, leaving farmers to get by as best they can, he said.
There’s also the continuing challenge of not being able to store “native” or natural river water in the El Vado Reservoir because it’s closed while the dam is being renovated, Casuga said. Otherwise, the district could have diverted water there to hold until farmers needed it, as they do now, he said.
Instead, the water flows south to Elephant Butte Reservoir, Casuga said. Sending all the water downstream would help New Mexico pay the hefty debt it owes Texas, except much of it doesn’t reach Elephant Butte because of faulty infrastructure and higher evaporation in the heat, he said.
In these conditions, the state’s debt could increase under the Rio Grande Compact, Casuga said, referring to the 75-year-old water-sharing agreement between New Mexico, Texas and Colorado.
The amount of water New Mexico must share with Texas is based on the volume that passes through the Otowi gauge in a northern section of the Rio Grande. This year, the river flow is likely to decrease between Otowi and Elephant Butte, putting New Mexico deeper into the hole, Casuga said.
New Mexico began 2023 owing Texas just under 100,000 acre feet, or roughly 32.6 billion gallons. Whether New Mexico is making gains or slipping further into debt won’t be known until the end of the year.
Rains in September and October will help farmers with their fall and winter plantings but would be too late for summer crops, Casuga said.
Very few farmers opted to be paid not to grow crops this year, he said. Those who fallowed fields last year regretted it when the rains came, and they didn’t want to risk a similar miscalculation this year, he said.
“Farmers want to farm,” he said.
Corky Herkenhoff, who owns 740-acre Indian Hill Farm in San Acacia, said he has no working water well, putting him at the mercy of the weather.
He paid $100,000 to have a well drilled, but the contractor didn’t follow the state engineer’s guidelines, and now there’s little chance of salvaging it, Herkenhoff said. “So we would have to cap that well.”
Herkenhoff raises alfalfa, winter wheat, sorghum and Sudan grass at Indian Hill. These crops, especially alfalfa, are less thirsty than chile and vegetables but still require water, he said.
If there’s no rain for the rest of the summer, he said, “it would be very damaging.”
Garcia, the neighboring farmer, said it’s tough to install a new well with pumps, which is why he hasn’t pursued it.
He faulted the irrigation district for farmers’ difficult situation, arguing the district could manage water better.
He said he realizes the district has no control over drought conditions, and he has heard all of the reasons for the storage problems, but he also believes the district could come up with a more efficient plan.
Some farmers have grown tired of the uncertainty, and have sold their land to developers who use it to build subdivisions for people who want to live in the country and enjoy a pretty, pastoral view, Garcia said.
“What do we want here in this valley?” Garcia said. “Do we want to subdivide this thing? I’m really scared what’s going to happen down the line if we don’t get some really good plans going.”