Monsoon high shifts slightly west but rain is still possible Wednesday in New Mexico

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — The monsoon high has shifted just slightly west and is now centered between Arizona and New Mexico for Wednesday.

We’ll still have a similar setup to the last couple of days. Scattered showers and storms will form off the high terrain between late morning and early afternoon, moving slowly off in a clockwise fashion into nearby highlands and valley areas by mid and late afternoon/early evening before mostly fizzling out after the sun sets.

The mid and upper level moisture draped across the state is slightly below climatological normals for early July. Slightly less moisture will limit rainfall but stronger cells could easily drop a good half-inch or more.

Additional rainfall on the burn scars may lead to flash flooding. Tuesday saw at least 1.5 inches of radar estimated rainfall fall near and on the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar.

Storms will produce strong outflow, with gusts likely ranging from 20-40 mph. That may either undercut existing storms or help produce new cells.

Temperatures this afternoon will either be near the same as Tuesday or about one-to-two degrees warmer statewide. Those that get to see the rain first will cool off the fastest.

Higher elevations in the mountains are looking at highs getting into the 70s and 80s. Valleys, low-lying areas and the highlands will heat up into the 90s, with several spots looking at highs near the triple digits this afternoon, such as the lower Rio Grande Valley, and a few southern locales. 

Wildfire smoke will also stick around. Most of it will stay lofted into the upper levels of the atmosphere but some light concentrations of it may make it down to the ground and could impact the air quality on a very localized scale for those that do get to see that. Areas around the Sacaton Fire in the Gila’s may see a slightly heavier concentration that could get blown around due to outflow from nearby storms this afternoon.

Meteorologist Amanda Goluszka shares all the details in her full forecast in the video above.

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