Temperatures across the Central and Southern Plains are forecast to reach between 27°C and 37°C (80°F to 99°F), representing anomalies of 11°C to 17°C (20°F to 30°F) above seasonal norms. This warming is driven by a strong upper ridge positioned over the central part of the country, which is channeling warm southerly air into the region.

As the upper ridge gradually shifts eastward, an amplifying upper-level system over the Four Corners region is expected to move east as well. This pattern will bring very dry air and strong winds into the Southern High Plains beginning late this week, further increasing the potential for wildfires.

As a result, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a series of Critical to Extremely Critical Fire Weather Outlooks for the region beginning today and extending into the weekend.

A critical fire weather area has been designated for parts of eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, valid April 16, where ongoing dry and windy conditions will increase fire risk.

Across eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and into the southern High Plains, moderate wind speeds of 24–40 km/h (15–25 mph) are expected throughout the afternoon, with the strongest winds anticipated in eastern Arizona and New Mexico.

Relative humidity values will range from 10–15%, with some local areas experiencing values as low as 5–10%, creating an environment conducive to wildfire ignition and spread.

In the Central High Plains, specifically in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, downslope winds of 24–32 km/h (15–20 mph) are expected during the afternoon, while relative humidity may drop to between 10–20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions.

In the Mid-Missouri Valley, southerly to southeasterly winds reaching 24–32 km/h (15–20 mph) are forecast from late morning into the mid-afternoon.

While there is significant uncertainty regarding afternoon humidity levels due to varying model predictions about cloud cover, dry fuels in the region could support locally elevated fire weather risks.

An extremely critical fire weather area has been issued for parts of central to northeast New Mexico for April 17, while a broader critical area extends from southeastern Arizona into parts of the southern High Plains.

A significant fire weather event is expected in much of New Mexico, where surface winds of 40–64 km/h (25–40 mph) are likely, with gusts reaching 80–97 km/h (50–60 mph) in some areas. Ongoing severe drought has left the region’s fuels at or above the 90^th percentile in terms of combustibility. Afternoon relative humidity levels are expected to fall to 5–10%, increasing the likelihood of extreme fire behavior.

Relative humidity values around 10% are forecast for the southern High Plains—including eastern Colorado, western and central Kansas, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Wind speeds will range from 32–48 km/h (20–30 mph), with the strongest winds expected in northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, southeast Colorado, and far southwest Kansas.

Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels.

Although parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains have not been included in the critical area due to greenup reducing fuel receptiveness, several hours of elevated to critical fire weather are anticipated in surrounding regions.

The northward extent of fire weather risks will be limited by a southward-moving cold front that will bring shifting winds and increased humidity to northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

References:

¹ Short Range Forecast Discussion – NWS/WPC – April 16, 2025

² Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook – NWS/SPC – April 16, 2025

³ Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook – NWS/SPC – April 16, 2025