New Mexico
College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Wyoming vs. New Mexico (Saturday, Oct. 8)
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Odds
As we close to the mid-point of the school soccer season, I can confidently state that the Mountain West has been probably the most disappointing convention as a complete in comparison with preseason expectations.
A lot of the highest canines misplaced nonconference video games, highlighted by Boise State (-17) at UTEP and Fresno State (-24) at UConn.
On the plus facet, that makes the race for the convention title that rather more attention-grabbing. It’s really extensive open in each the Mountain and West Divisions.
For this explicit matchup, two West Division foes will meet in Albuquerque with host New Mexico searching for its first convention win of the season.
Talking of main upsets, Wyoming additionally pulled off one in opposition to fellow division rival Air Pressure earlier this season.
Nonetheless, I feel the market could also be giving the Cowboys a bit an excessive amount of respect for that victory. Air Pressure didn’t have just a few key starters, and head coach Craig Bohl simply is aware of methods to defend the triple-option in addition to any non-Service Academy program.
The opposite FBS win got here at dwelling in double time beyond regulation over Tulsa in a recreation it in all probability ought to have misplaced. All issues thought of, I imagine the market notion on this crew is likely to be skewed a tad artificially excessive.
Look, Bohl deserves a ton of credit score for already getting the Pokes to 3 victories in 2022. Wyoming’s roster obtained gutted by the switch portal greater than any crew within the nation this previous offseason.
The Pokes primarily entered 2022 in full rebuild mode. Utah State switch Andrew Peasley runs the present, however he’s coping with a hip pointer that price him a while throughout final week’s recreation. That’s definitely price monitoring, however I anticipate him to go well with up.
From an offensive standpoint, this is identical basic Wyoming squad chances are you’ll be accustomed to. The Cowboys play very gradual and lean on their dashing assault with a really conservative head coach calling the pictures in Bohl. And after shedding so many key items to the portal, the outcomes haven’t been fairly.
Defensively, Wyoming has been a bit weak to the explosive move, however its down-to-down passing metrics look extra promising than the run-defense metrics. Once more, a serious rebuild on this facet of the ball as nicely.
The Lobos haven’t loved a ton of success on the sector in current seasons, however their previous two conferences with Wyoming have been an exception.
Final 12 months, New Mexico completed with the worst against-the-spread mark within the nation at 1-11. Its one cowl got here on the highway at Wyoming in a recreation it received outright, 14-3, at a 19-point underdog.
Moreover, throughout a pandemic-shortened marketing campaign in 2020, one in all New Mexico’s two wins came to visit Wyoming, which was a 15.5-point favourite. That recreation got here at a impartial website in Las Vegas because the Lobos couldn’t play of their dwelling state in 2020.
Sure, New Mexico is 2-0 straight up in opposition to Wyoming since head coach Danny Gonzales took over with each victories coming outdoors of Albuquerque as underdogs north of two touchdowns.
Since Gonzales took over, together with defensive coordinator Rocky Lengthy, the protection has improved considerably. That’s not too stunning for 2 good defensive minds that know methods to scheme up the 3-3-5 in addition to any pair within the nation.
Whereas the protection has performed at a good degree, the offense has not.
The Lobos simply can’t appear to unravel that facet of the ball with many failed variations of option-based assaults. It doesn’t assist that it’s a really robust place to recruit to, so it’s not just like the expertise is there.
Because of the offensive struggles, the protection normally additionally wears down late, having to be on the sector for method too lengthy far too typically.
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Matchup Evaluation
Toggle the dropdowns beneath to cover or present how Wyoming and New Mexico match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. New Mexico Protection
New Mexico Offense vs. Wyoming Protection
Tempo of Play / Different
| PFF Tackling | 131 | 118 |
| PFF Protection | 116 | 34 |
| SP+ Particular Groups | 24 | 96 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (101) | 32.1 (129) |
| Rush Fee | 58.6% (31) | 66.4% (5) |
Knowledge through CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Professional Soccer Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Betting Decide
This one is ugly, however I’m backing the Lobos for a second straight weekend after attending to the window with relative ease in opposition to UNLV final Friday evening.
After constructing a 17-0 lead in Sin Metropolis, it appeared as if New Mexico ultimately wore down on a brief week in its second straight highway recreation after getting beat up by LSU the earlier Saturday.
I don’t suppose fatigue shall be a serious concern right here with an additional day of relaxation/prep in opposition to a Wyoming crew that performs at a snail’s tempo.
I’m additionally fortunately fading Wyoming for a second straight week in its first convention highway journey of the season. Wyoming has one of many higher home-field benefits within the nation with the altitude in Laramie.
New Mexico’s protection needs to be the perfect unit on the sector and has been the explanation for the previous two main upset wins over Wyoming, which scored a grand complete of 19 factors in these defeats.
The Lobos offense is completely dreadful, however the Cowboys’ run protection is a bit gentle, which is the place UNM needs to make its hay.
Plus, quarterback Miles Kendrick has appeared extra snug in current weeks. He’ll have just a few probabilities to attach on one or two deep pictures in opposition to a Wyoming secondary that misplaced each beginning cornerbacks and a security to the switch portal this previous offseason.
Hitting one or two deep pictures and forcing Peasley, who’s additionally coping with a hip pointer, right into a mistake or two is probably going all it could take for UNM to select up its first convention win of the season.
In what ought to play out as an absolute grinder with a present complete of 36, I’ll gladly take the hook with the house pup that has the higher protection in a battle of two horrid offenses.