Nevada
UNLV vs. Nevada Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-14-2023
The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will battle in-state rival Nevada on Saturday night in Mountain West Conference action. UNLV is off to a fast start with a 4-1 record overall and 1-0 in conference play. The Wolf Pack from Nevada has started the season with five straight losses including their only game in MWC play. The opening kick is scheduled for 5:00 PM EST.
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Rebels Roll
The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels won their third straight game on Saturday with a 44-20 win over Hawaii. UNLV improved to 4-1 on the season and 1-0 in Mountain West play after scoring 40 or more points in the third straight game.
“This game was not only important to our team and to our university, but also to Las Vegas. With conference play starting, the ability to continue the momentum we have built so far in our program, the importance of every single conference game, that’s so huge for where we are trying to get to. This is the first time we have scored 40 points in three straight games, that’s tremendous. We had a great offensive performance. We had six sacks and didn’t give up any on the other side. That’s complimentary football. When we can do that and play well in all three phases together, we’ve got an opportunity to continue to play winning ball … I’m proud of this team for what we’ve done now through five weeks.” UNLV head coach Barry Odom said after the win.
UNLV’s rushing attack was dominant in the win on Saturday, rushing for 307 yards as a team with six different Rebels backs finishing with 30 or more yards in the game. Donavyn Lester had 98 yards on 12 carries with a touchdown and fellow back Courtney Reese chipped in with two rushing touchdowns and 32 yards rushing. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was a modest 11-of-21 for 142 yards but threw two touchdowns in the process. In all, the Rebels had 449 yards of total offense and didn’t commit a turnover.
On the defensive side of the ball, UNLV held Hawaii to just 46 yards on the ground and 359 yards overall. Hawaii was just 1-of-11 on third down conversions in the loss. The Rebels had six sacks in the game, by six different players. Safety Johnathan Baldwin had nine tackles to lead UNLV.
UNLV hopes to improve to 2-0 in Mountain West play on Saturday. The Rebels come in with the 58th-ranked total offense in the nation. They are 15th rushing the ball but just 100th throwing the football. In the red zone, UNLV is ranked 16th in red zone offensive efficiency. Defensively, the Rebels are ranked 77th in total defense. They are 20th against the run but just 124th against the pass. The Rebels’ red zone defense is ranked 47th in the nation.
UNLV does not turn the ball over very often while focusing on the team’s ground attack. The Rebels are ranked third in the country in turnover differential. UNLV does struggle with penalties, ranking 117th in the country in penalties per game.
Injury Report: QB D. Brumfield (undisclosed) is questionable. DB J. Williams (foot) is out.
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Wolf Pack Woes
The Nevada Wolf Pack continued the woeful start to their season with a 27-9 loss to 25th-ranked Fresno State two weeks ago. The Wolf Pack are now 0-5 on the season and 0-1 in conference play. After a week off, the Wolf Pack hopes to get in the win column.
“Well, we haven’t won a game, so (we are) not where we need to be,” Nevada head coach Ken Wilson said. “We played some really good football teams.”
The Nevada offense was once again disappointing against Fresno State. Starting quarterback Brendon Lewis went just 10-of-21 for 70 yards with two picks in the loss. He was replaced by backup AJ Bianco who led the Wolf Pack to their only touchdown with just 11 seconds to go in the game. Bianco was 9-of-14 for 97 yards in what was essentially garbage time. In all, Nevada had just 253 yards of total offense including just 53 on the ground.
Defensively, Nevada allowed 410 yards of total offense to Fresno State and 19 first downs. Fresno State also was a solid 50% in converting on third down against the Wolf Pack defense. Nevada did have four tackles for loss in the game including two sacks. They also picked off two passes in the defeat.
Nevada comes into the matchup with UNLV at 0-5 and with their head coach likely on the hot seat in the midst of another dismal season. The Wolf Pack are ranked 122nd in total offense this season thus far. They are 112th on the ground and just 98th through the air. When they have been able to get to the red zone, they are efficient with the second-best red zone ranking in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, the Wolf Pack rank dead last in the country in total defense. They are 114th against the run and 131st against the pass. In the red zone, they are efficient defensively, ranking 29th in the country. This is more a product of the team giving up big plays for scores than anything else.
Nevada is fairly decent with the intangibles. They are 48th in the country in turnover differential thus far and 34th in penalties per game.
Injury Report: No injuries to report.
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The Rebels come into this matchup playing their best football in years. They have the nation’s 15th-ranked rushing attack and will be squaring off against a Nevada team that is dead last in total defense. Moreover, the Wolf Pack is just 114th against the run. Nevada hasn’t settled on a consistent starting quarterback since the end of summer sessions and it is reflected in the team’s dismal offensive numbers. They are 122nd in the nation in total offense and haven’t been successful running or throwing the football. While UNLV does not possess a top-flight defense, they are efficient enough on that side of the ball to keep the Wolf Pack at bay. I expect UNLV to dominate and control time of possession with their explosive running game and turn this game into another one-sided affair.
Take UNLV -9.5
Prediction: UNLV -9.5
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UNLV has scored 40 or more points in three straight games coming into this matchup. They should have a decided edge running the football against Nevada’s porous run defense. With a week off to game plan and rest up, Nevada may be able to put up some points here to help the total. Prior to scoring just nine points against Fresno State, the Wolf Pack scored 24 points in each of the previous two games. That number is more than enough to push this game over the total given UNLV’s offensive prowess.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 53.5