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GOP’s early Nevada voting surge could doom Harris’ chances in the swing state

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GOP’s early Nevada voting surge could doom Harris’ chances in the swing state


LAS VEGAS — Nevada’s early-voting numbers show Democratic presidential-election dominance in the swing state could come crashing down next month, making former President Donald Trump the first Republican to win the state’s six Electoral College votes in 20 years.

A 2020 Democratic lead of 47,000 ballots returned by this point in the cycle has been erased, with a swing of close to 53,000 Republican ballots, GOP campaign strategist Jeremy Hughes tweeted Tuesday.

It’s given Republicans a nearly 6,000-vote lead in the Silver State. 

Las Vegas Strip-themed “I Voted” stickers are placed on a table where voters turn in mail-in ballots at the Meadows Mall on October 21, 2024,in Las Vegas, Nevada. Early voting in the battleground state began on October 19 and continues through November 1. On the first day of early voting, Nevada recorded the most in-person voters since adopting universal mail voting for the 2020 election. Getty Images

The changing ballot numbers come as a new AARP poll shows the ex-prez ahead of Kamala Harris in Nevada by 2 points, with independent voters over 50 preferring Trump 41% versus 27% for the vice president.

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A Trump win here would seriously dent Harris’ chances of keeping the White House in Democratic hands. The veep’s team had former President Barack Obama in North Las Vegas Saturday and will bring in First Lady Jill Biden and Gov. Tim Walz during the next week in an attempt to juice turnout.

Early voting in Nevada ends Nov. 1, while mail-in ballots can be received up to Nov. 9 by 5 p.m. — four days after Election Day — provided they are postmarked by Nov. 5.

Mail-in and early-voting totals the secretary of state’s released show 263,410 ballots cast as of Monday, representing 13.1% of statewide turnout. The 101,231 GOP ballots cast so far lead the 95,392 Democratic ballots by 5,839, or 2.2%. A further 66,787 ballots were cast by unaffiliated voters or those registered with other political parties.

What those early ballots — in-person and postal — contain won’t be known until the polls close Nov. 5. But pundit Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, said Monday night the GOP hasn’t seen a statewide ballot lead here since 2008, and it “could signal serious danger” for the Harris campaign.

RealClearPolitics’ Nevada polling average gives Trump a 0.7-point lead over Harris, down one-tenth of a point from the weekend.

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Clark County poll workers check in voters Monday at Las Vegas’ Meadows Mall. Getty Images

At issue is the so-called “Clark County firewall” Democrats supposedly have in the state’s most populous county, which includes Las Vegas and boasts 1.4 million registered voters. That amounts to 70% of the state’s 1.98 million “active” and registered voters. 

Election officials reported 72,969 Clark County Democrats have voted early as of Tuesday, versus 66,481 Republicans and 49,893 “other” voters. That gives the Democrats a margin of roughly 6,500 votes, but Washoe County — the state’s second-largest by population — and several rural counties are seeing strong turnouts.

Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Victor Joecks tweeted Democrats “need to run up the score in Clark [County]. They haven’t done it so far.”

Silver State Republicans say the early results are encouraging and a result of hard work on the ground. 

“We’re seeing a strong turnout from Republicans who understand the importance of banking their vote ahead of time,” Nevada GOP Chairman and Trump senior adviser Michael J. McDonald told The Post.

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“This enthusiasm reflects the confidence voters have in President Trump’s leadership and his ability to solve Nevadans’ top concerns: rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing.”

Early returns show a Republican advantage in the Silver State. Getty Images

GOP combat veteran Sam Brown’s Senate campaign is also heartened by the early-voting numbers.

“There is incredible energy on the ground,” said Raegan Lehman, campaign communications director. “Nevadans have made it clear they are ready for a change and the momentum is on our side.”

Democrats, meanwhile, believe targeting the state’s nonpartisan voters will deliver them a victory, albeit slim.

“Nevada is consistently won by a field margin. As we’ve said all along, this election will be close. We know nonpartisan voters will play a major role in deciding this election, which is why we invested early in a ground game focused on both turning out Democrats and earning support from nonpartisans and moderate Republicans,” Nevada Democratic Party spokesman Nicholas Simões Machado told The Post.

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“Nevada Democrats have been laser-focused all cycle on talking directly to the growing number of registered nonpartisans and making sure we mobilize the broad and diverse coalition we need to win statewide.”



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Nevada

Republicans Lose Fight Over Late-Arriving Mail Ballots in Nevada

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Republicans Lose Fight Over Late-Arriving Mail Ballots in Nevada


The Nevada Supreme Court will allow state officials to count absentee ballots arriving without a postmark as many as three days after the Nov. 5 general election, rejecting a challenge brought by the Republican Party in the swing state.

The decision on Monday is a setback for the national GOP organization in Nevada, where polls show a tight race in the presidential contest between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.



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Nevada Is Ground Zero for Climate Change | Election Letters | Zócalo Public Square

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Nevada Is Ground Zero for Climate Change | Election Letters | Zócalo Public Square


More than 400 people have died from heat-related illnesses in southern Nevada in 2024, the largest recorded number of heat-related deaths documented in the region in a single year. That’s not the final tally, either. Officials only report “cases” where identification is confirmed and next of kin is notified.

While the largest number of heat-related deaths documented in a single year should be enough to garner headlines, it’ll much more likely become a grim statistic in a state where the climate crisis is unfolding before our very eyes.

Data shows that Reno and Las Vegas are the fastest-warming cities in the country, with the average annual temperature increasing by more than seven and five degrees, respectively, since 1970. Excessive heat has contributed to a water crisis and has exacerbated the near-constant threat of wildfire. In Nevada, the average number of wildfires larger than 1,000 acres has doubled each year since 1970. Last month, a 5,828-acre blaze fueled by high winds and dry pine threatened thousands of homes in Reno forcing evacuations, now common for many living along the eastern Sierra.

Nevadans have, by and large, noticed. Most understand that climate change is real and already affecting how we live and that more needs to be done to mitigate its effects. A 2022 poll found that more than half of Clark County (Las Vegas) and nearly two-thirds of Washoe County (Reno) respondents said climate change impacts them on a daily basis.

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And yet, climate doesn’t appear to be making an impact on this election cycle. Poll after poll has shown that voters here are more concerned about the economy, immigration, abortion rights, and defending democracy from “the other guy.”

Why? Perhaps because when Nevadans think about climate change, it’s almost always couched in faraway-seeming discussions about energy production.

The state has become ground zero for developing and implementing large-scale “green energy” projects. That’s thanks in part to the Inflation Reduction Act. Since its passage in 2022, the Biden Administration has poured billions of dollars into the state to support Nevada’s water infrastructure, wildfire restoration and mitigation efforts, and the clean energy economy.

In recent months, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management—which oversees the roughly 85% of Nevada land owned by the federal government—has greenlit several industrial solar developments and the construction of a massive 350-mile energy transmission project that includes power lines running through desert tortoise and sage grouse habitat as well as Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument.

Historically known for mining, Nevada is also seeing a new boom focused on lithium, the mineral needed to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. The state has the only operating lithium mine in the U.S., with more on the way.

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When Nevadans think about climate change, it’s almost always couched in faraway-seeming discussions about energy production.

However, those investments have failed to resonate with voters because they often happen in incredibly rural areas like Silver Peak, Nevada. Take a drive out there, I dare you. It’s in the middle of nowhere in a state filled with nowhere.

Roughly four hours from the heart of Las Vegas, the hamlet is nestled on the side of a mountain. A sea of fine, white powder and evaporative pools used in the extraction process stretch across the basin. Rock outcroppings with names like Alcatraz Island, Angel Island, and Goat Island lend to the illusion that you’re driving across the San Francisco Bay.

Yet, on the other side of that mountain is land virtually untouched since colonization, valleys home to Tiehm’s buckwheat, a species listed endangered in 2022.

According to the Bureau of Land Management, this land is now open for solar energy development and lithium extraction. Many environmental groups have voiced support for the increased focus on renewable energy development, but they have also questioned the federal government’s approach, leading to mixed feelings from even the most diehard green energy proponents.

Such controversies place Nevada at the forefront of climate change regulation debates, yet they happen almost entirely on the fringes. For most Nevadans, the effects of climate policies are still too abstract to sway their votes. Talking points about whether families can cool their houses in the summer and pay for the gas needed to make it to work are far easier to grasp than potential carbon reduction if X policy is implemented over Y agenda.

Who can blame voters?

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Nevada’s economy has remained sluggish since the pandemic. The unemployment rate is the worst of any state in the country, while wage growth among hourly employees is the slowest. And that’s saying something, considering Nevada’s wages are already among the lowest in the country.

There’s also the rising cost of … everything. Housing is the most obvious, fueled by the relentless tide of Californians pulling up stakes from their Golden State and moving east for cheaper pastures. Nevadans also pay more for childcare, groceries, and gas than just about anywhere else in the country.

So it’s unsurprising that climate change has again taken a back seat to pocketbook issues in Nevada this election cycle.

Let’s hope that voters here recognize their role in addressing the climate crisis in their backyard sooner rather than later.

And if they don’t, let’s hope the casino air conditioners never go out.

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Paul Boger lives in Reno and is the politics and state government reporter for Nevada Public Radio. 


This “Election Letter” is part of a year-long Zócalo inquiry, “Can Democracy Survive This Election Year?,” looking at countries holding elections in 2024.


Primary editor: Jackie Mansky | Secondary editor: Eryn Brown




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Nevada Dismantled in the Islands, losing 34-13 to Hawaii

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Nevada Dismantled in the Islands, losing 34-13 to Hawaii


Nevada football fans had to stay up late Saturday night to watch the Wolf Pack take on the Rainbow Warriors in Hawaii. Unfortunately, the late night ended in a bitter 34-13 loss for Nevada, plagued by injuries, undisciplined football, and an incomplete team effort.

Perhaps there’s a Timmy Chang curse. Chang, the current head coach of Hawaii and former Nevada assistant coach from 2017-21, is now 3-0 against Nevada despite being 4-23 against non-Nevada FBS schools.

Either way, Nevada was dominated physically. There was no Brendon Lewis. Savion Red got hurt during the game. Nevada’s chances of a bowl game have almost diminished, and the team will continue to look for its first conference win of the season.

Scoring Summary

1st Quarter

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10:10- Brayden Schager 1-yard TD run (Kansei Matsuzawa PAT)

Nevada 0 – Hawaii 7

0:28- Brayden Schager 1-yard TD run (Kansei Matsuzawa PAT)

Nevada 0 – Hawaii 14

2nd Quarter

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0:09- Kansei Matsuzawa 29-yard FG

Nevada 0 – Hawaii 17

3rd Quarter

14:29- Marcus Bellon 63-yard TD pass from Chubba Purdy (Matthew Killam PAT)

Nevada 7 – Hawaii 17

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1:57- Brayden Schager 3-yard TD run (Kansei Matsuzawa PAT)

Nevada 7 – Hawaii 24

4th Quarter

14:07- Brayden Schager 6-yard TD run (Kansei Matsuzawa PAT)

Nevada 7 – Hawaii 31

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8:43- Marcus Bellon TD pass from AJ Bianco (2-pt conversion attempt failed)

Nevada 13 – Hawaii 31

2:53- Kansei Matsuzawa 30-yard FG

Nevada 13 – Hawaii 34

Final: Nevada 13, Hawaii 34

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Offense

With Lewis out, it wasn’t expected that the running game would be the same. Still, it took a huge hit.

Nevada only rushed for 94 total yards on 29 attempts. The Pack’s leading rusher was QB Chubba Purdy, who got the start but was subbed in and out with AJ Bianco. Purdy rushed for 41 yards on attempts.

Red only had one carry until he came out with a toe injury. With how heavy Nevada relies on its run game, not having Lewis or Red hurt more than anything. It was the second straight game Nevada was held under 100 rushing yards.

However, Nevada’s passing game outperformed Hawaii’s. Purdy went 13-18 with 155 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Bianco went 13-21 with 131 yards and a touchdown pass.

Both QBs relied heavily on wide receiver Marcus Bellon, who finished the night with 111 yards on six receptions and two touchdowns.

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Defense

Hawaii QB Brayden Schager channeled his inner Lewis as he dominated the Pack’s defense with his legs.

On 19 carries, Schager rushed for 120 yards and four rushing touchdowns. He also went 14-25 in the air with 135 yards and an interception by Nevada CB Michael Coats Jr., his fourth of the year.

Outside of Schager’s dominant run performance, Nevada reverted to bad habits in the penalty department. Nevada was flagged 12 times for 108 yards, many of them coming from unsportsmanlike penalties.

Overall, it was a sloppy, undisciplined game mixed with a lot of injuries.

What’s Next

Nevada is now one of two teams to be winless in the Mountain West (Air Force is the other.) The Pack now sit at 3-6 and 0-3 in conference play, with the already slim chances at a bowl game going even lower.

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Nevada will return home to face old friend Jay Norvell and the Colorado State Rams. The Rams are 5-3 and 3-0 in the MW, and one more win would send Colorado State bowling for the first time since 2017.



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