Montana
U.S. Senate Dems will prioritize Montana and Ohio seats, campaign chief says • Daily Montanan
WASHINGTON — The chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said Tuesday his top priority this November is defending incumbents in tough races — placing Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown at the top of the list for resources.
Gary Peters, who is also the U.S. senator from Michigan, said he sees several opportunities for Democrats to pick up seats as well, though he stressed that those campaigns are too close to predict just yet.
“To be candid, my number one priority is to bring back all of the incumbents,” Peters said. “But we also want to go on the offense, and offense is going to be very important. And right now our focus is Texas and Florida.”
Peters said that during the last few weeks Democrats have seen positive trends in polling in those two states that could increase the odds they flip from red to blue.
Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is facing a challenge from Democratic Rep. Colin Allred and Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott is running against former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Democratic support continuing to rise in those two states could have an impact on how much money Democrats dedicate to those campaigns, Peters said.
“As we make our decisions on resources, we play to win,” he said. “And when we see opportunities like we see in Texas, we’re going to invest accordingly.”
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the Senate campaigns in Michigan, Montana and Ohio as “toss up” races, while it places Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the “lean Democrat” category.
All seven of those seats are currently held by Democrats, making the map especially challenging for Peters.
Florida and Texas fall into the “likely Republican” category, signaling the odds are somewhat long for Democrats, though not completely out of reach.
Peters said during the panel interview with the Regional Reporters Association at the DSCC headquarters in Washington, D.C., that he believes GOP Senate candidates rank on a spectrum from “flawed to very flawed,” potentially boosting Democrats chances.
In Montana, defending Tester
Peters argued that in Montana, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy’s character is one of the reasons Tester remains within the margin of error in the vast majority of polls, despite the fact that voters favor Republican presidential candidates by double-digit margins.
“The list of flaws of Sheehy are long,” Peters said. “And that’s why folks in Montana are rejecting him, even in a state that’s going to be voting heavily for Donald Trump.”
Peters said some of Sheehy’s problems stem from calling himself a rancher despite living on a “dude ranch” and owning a company that is “hemorrhaging money.”
Montana’s relatively small population, Peters said, means that face-to-face conversations with voters and a candidate’s reputation can have a significant impact on a campaign’s outcome.
“Retail politics can make a huge difference,” Peter said. “Just think of Maine with Susan Collins when she won. It’s because it’s a small state. Retail politics matter. People knew Susan Collins.”
Collins, a Republican, in 2020 defeated her Democratic challenger, despite being considered one of the year’s most vulnerable senators.
Tester has a similar connection with voters in Montana, potentially edging him out over Sheehy, who is a more recent transplant to the state, he said.
“People know Jon Tester in Montana,” Peters said. “He is a long time Montana person, third generation dirt farmer. His roots are there. He’s had opportunities to get to know a lot of folks in Montana in a personal way. He can do that in a lot more effective way than I can in Michigan with 10 million people.”
Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said this summer during a panel interview with journalists in the RRA that his home state represented the best pickup opportunity for the GOP.
And just last week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, moved Montana from the toss up category to “Leans Republican.”
“The upshot of this rating change is that there are now 51 Senate seats rated as Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican, so this move solidifies the Republicans as clear favorites to flip control of the Senate this November,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the publication’s managing editor.
Kondik later stressed that “Montana is a challenging state to poll, and both sides remain very heavily invested there.”
NRSC Spokeswoman Maggie Abboud released a written statement shortly after that ratings change, criticizing Tester as the wrong person to represent Montana in the Senate.
“Jon Tester is a diehard liberal who hates Donald Trump and votes for the Harris-Biden agenda 95% of the time,” Abboud wrote. “That’s why poll after poll shows him losing ground rapidly against Tim Sheehy. Montanans aren’t buying Tester’s moderate shtick anymore.”
‘Candidate quality’ in Ohio
In Ohio, where Brown is hoping to secure reelection against GOP candidate Bernie Moreno, the DSCC hopes to outrun a shift toward Republicans based on “candidate quality.”
“Sherrod has been able to win statewide because of who he is as a person, and that’s a big deal,” Peters said, noting that Senate races are often viewed differently by voters than the presidential race.
Moreno is a flawed candidate and a fraud, Peters said.
“The stories that he has, stories of coming to Ohio and starting a business as an immigrant with no resources, have been shown not to be true. That he actually comes from a family, one of the wealthiest families in Columbia,” Peters said, referring to a New York Times article that Moreno has refuted.
Moreno was also sued by employees at his car dealership for not paying overtime, setting up “a pretty clear contrast” with Brown, who has supported labor unions throughout his career, Peters said.
The DSCC is putting “substantial resources into Ohio” to help Brown win, he said.
Around the battlegrounds
Other battleground states have Senate races that will run down to the wire, with many of the Democrats expected to remain neck-and-neck with the GOP challengers until the polls close.
Peters said that should come as no surprise to anyone who has paid attention to the last few election cycles.
“Just because you have a really good candidate doesn’t mean that you win,” he said. “You also have to run a really good campaign in order to win, and particularly on the ground.”
That is one of the reasons why the DSCC is putting considerable resources into ensuring that voters can actually get to the polls this fall.
“Last cycle, for the first time in history, we spent more money on the ground than we did on the air, turning out voters,” Peters said. “It was something that I thought was incredibly important.“
The DSCC is planning to follow that same strategy again this year, ensuring that Democratic supporters in swing states are able to cast their ballots.
Montana
SLIDESHOW: Severe storms moved through western Montana on Thursday
Severe storms moved through parts of Montana on Thursday, prompting a total of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Reports included strong wind gusts and hail in several communities, including Augusta, Choteau, Sunburst, Bigfork, Kalispell and Evergreen.
The strongest reported wind gust was 60 mph near Augusta, while hail up to 1 inch was reported near Evergreen and Kalispell.
STORM REPORTS:
12 SE Grant — 56 mph thunderstorm wind gust
7 NNE Augusta — 60 mph thunderstorm wind gust
5 ENE Choteau — 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust
Sunburst — 54 mph thunderstorm wind gust
Ennis — 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust
3 SSW Ennis — 52 mph thunderstorm wind gust
2 E Helena — 54 mph thunderstorm wind gust
19 E Swan Lake — 56 mph thunderstorm wind gust
2 NNW Yaak — thunderstorm wind damage – Multiple downed trees reported along Highway 2 between MM 3 and 8
3 WSW Blacktail — 53 mph thunderstorm wind gust
1 NNW Troy — 49 mph thunderstorm wind gust
5 ENE Choteau — 56 mph thunderstorm wind gust
Turah — 0.88″ hail
1 NNW Bigfork — 0.75″ hail
3 SW La Salle — 0.50″ hail
2 N Evergreen — 1.00″ hail
1 W Kalispell — 1.00″ hail
3 WNW Kalispell — 0.75″ hail
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Montana
Las Vegas man sentenced after Helena coin shop burglary in Montana
LAS VEGAS (KSNV) — A man from Las Vegas has been sentenced after stealing coins and precious metals from a Helena shop in Montana.
This comes after Bishop Lott, 47, pleaded guilty in January to one count of interstate transportation of stolen property.
A judge sentenced Lott on Thursday to 27 months in prison, followed by three years of supervised release. He was also ordered to pay $276,153.08 in restitution to the Helena business as well as five other theft victims.
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The government alleged in court documents that Lott, along with Ricky Rynell Rose, broke into Wayne Miller Coins in Helena and stole nearly $59,000 in coins and precious metals from a Helena business.
Rose pleaded guilty last year and was sentenced to 39 months in prison.
The Helena Police Department received a call on March 3, 2024, reporting that Wayne Miller Coins had been burglarized earlier that day.
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As part of their investigation, Helena police officers reviewed surveillance footage from multiple businesses. They analyzed email account data, which led them to Lott and Rose, who had taken the stolen material to Nevada.
Montana
A battle over dark money is brewing in Hawaii and Montana
Political spending that is funneled into elections from a variety of nonprofits is known as dark money — and unlike campaign spending or the money deployed by PACs and super PACs, these sources are not required to disclose their donors. Following the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision, which created the country’s current election spending landscape, this has ramped up dramatically, with the 2024 election seeing a record $1.9 billion in dark money spending, nearly double the $1 billion spent in 2020. Now, some campaign finance reformers think they’ve found a state-level reform that can rein in this spending.
Now, campaign finance reformers think they’ve found a solution, and it’s already in place in Hawaii.
A newly enacted corporate law, SB 2471, changes the powers that corporations, or other artificial persons like nonprofits, are granted by the state of Hawaii. In the United States, states grant artificial persons powers as part of an agreement that allows those artificial persons to operate in the state. SB 2471 works by changing the powers that Hawaii grants these entities to disallow them from spending on politics at all.
Tom Moore, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and former chief of staff to Federal Election Commission commissioner Ellen Weintraub, told Salon that the law operates upstream of Citizens United by dealing with the powers granted to corporations and other artificial persons, rather than trying to regulate what they can and cannot do with those powers.
“Citizens United said, ‘Hey, if you’re a corporation that is empowered to spend in politics, your right to spend independently in politics can’t be infringed,’” Moore said. “Fine. What this [Hawaiian law] does is say, ‘You know, we’re not going to create that kind of corporation anymore. We’re going to create the kind of corporation that doesn’t have any political spending powers.’ Citizens United and all the other campaign finance cases that the courts have ever decided do not speak to that.”
In his analysis, Moore said this strategy also has a better chance of standing up to scrutiny from the Supreme Court because courts have long upheld a state’s ability to assign powers to corporations operating within their borders, going back hundreds of years.
“They’re gimmicks, and the Supreme Court is not usually impressed by gimmicks.”
“The Supreme Court has said for 200 years that the states can do whatever they want in terms of assigning powers to corporations. They made a fatal assumption in Citizens United that 100 years ago, when states gave away all the powers and said, ‘You can do anything that a human could do,’ they assumed that states would never change their mind on that,” Moore said. “But they never said the states couldn’t change their mind on that, and now they are.”
For example, a recent court ruling in Delaware allowed a change to a town charter that would allow corporations to vote there under some circumstances.
Moore believes that this Hawaiian law, and others like it in the works in other states, have a good chance of surviving at the Supreme Court. However, some critics disagree, saying this legal maneuver is likely to be struck down.
Brad Smith, the chairman and founder of the Institute for Free Speech, a nonprofit that advocates against limits on political speech, including political spending, called the move an “end run” around Citizens United.
“They’re gimmicks, and the Supreme Court is not usually impressed by gimmicks. If you want to do it, you probably have to change the makeup of the Supreme Court or be willing to pack the court and have the political muscle to do it,” Smith said.
In his opinion, the court is likely to see Hawaii’s law as a violation of the First Amendment and is unlikely to look favorably on the argument that these laws deal with powers rather than with rights and that this has to do with how corporations have changed in the past 200 years.
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Smith explained that in the past, states used to create bespoke statutes for corporations to do something like operate a ferry or a toll bridge. These days, however, the laws governing corporations are more uniform.
“That’s just not how corporations operate in the modern world,” Smith said.
Smith added that he suspects the court will see this law as conditioning the creation of a corporation, or similar artificial person, on forfeiting the right of the people forming a corporation to political speech in the form of spending.
“You could not have the state say we’re going to allow you to register your home, but only if you agree that you won’t spend any money from your home equity line of credit on any kind of political activity,” Smith said. “You can’t deny people the benefits of the law based on a determination that they give up some type of constitutional rights.”
Notably, under Hawaii’s law, the people who form corporations are still allowed to engage in political spending; it’s just that the artificial person in question is disallowed. Still, Smith said, he believes the court will still see the law as unconstitutional.
What’s clear is that this new law, or one like it, will likely be headed to the Supreme Court and that’s because there are already other states where people are mobilizing to create similar laws.
Jeff Mangan, the founder and president of the Transparent Election Initiative, is already spearheading an effort to get a similar statute on the ballot in Montana in 2026, telling Salon that the group is only about 1,000 signatures away from meeting the petition requirements, with four weeks left.
“It’s an all-volunteer effort in Montana, we don’t have any paid signature gatherers, and it’s something that hasn’t been seen in a couple of decades here,” Mangan said.
While election finance reform is typically seen as a progressive issue, Mangan said that the initiative has been well-received by Montanans of all political leanings and that he’s optimistic that the measure will pass, though he’s expecting a significant political battle once the ballot measure is approved.
“We start with a very simple question: Do you believe there’s too much money in politics?” Mangan said. “Citizens will say ‘Yes,’ and they may not agree exactly what the solution is, but we can all agree that there’s too much money in politics.”
Mangan acknowledged that the law, if passed in Montana, would be limited in that it only addresses dark money, which is a relatively small portion of political spending. While 2024 saw nearly $2 billion in dark money spent, it saw some $15 billion in outside political spending, according to the election spending watchdog OpenSecrets. Still, Mangan said, he’s already had organizers in all 50 states reach out expressing interest in the project and in starting similar efforts in their home states.
The Montana measure has also already survived a legal challenge at the Montana Supreme Court, which makes organizers optimistic that the law will survive a federal challenge. The court ruled that the law was not an infringement of rights because the law “speaks only to powers, not rights, and it does not expressly revoke any constitutional rights.”
Still, Mangan expects that his group and the supporters of the measure will have to fight tooth and nail to get the bill passed via referendum if and when it appears on the ballot in November.
“It’ll certainly be a David versus Goliath battle. They’ve already started. The Chamber of Commerce and industry groups attempted to stop the initiative right at the beginning of the signature-gathering phase. They sued the state to stop us from gathering signatures. They were unsuccessful,” Mangan said. “We expect litigation at every step of the way through this, not to mention whatever political campaign they choose to throw at us, and I would imagine it’ll be expensive and immense. It almost makes our point. Exactly the reason we need the Montana plan is because of exactly what we’re seeing being thrown against us.”
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